Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open mixed market, DOW -33

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. Overnight SPX futures were lower, and at 8:30 import prices were reported higher: 0.5% v -0.2%. The market opened 2 points below yesterday’s SPX 2397 close, then dipped down to 2393 by 10:30. After that the market started to drift higher. At 2pm a budget surplus of $182b was reported versus a surplus of $106b. The market hit SPX 2400 in the last hour of trading and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds added 1 tick, Crude rallied $1.50, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims and the PPI at 8:30.

The market opened slightly lower today, dipped to within 1 point of yesterday’s SPX 2392 low, then drifted up for the rest of the day. Not much change in the short term count. Three waves up from SPX 2329, and a more defined three waves up on a shorter timeframe. Key levels: support low-2380’s, breakout 2404+, breakdown 2361-. Market appears to be looking for a catalyst. Retail sales and the CPI on Friday. Short term support is at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2361, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Short term momentum did hit oversold this morning, then rebounded to almost overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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79 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. scottycj1 says:

    CIT tomorrow 5-12 for gold

  2. micky says:

    apple having/had one of those tiny fours you can hardly see.

  3. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Looks like The NAZ’s long term trend line is right around its recent peak. That and the MASSIVE daily and weekly neg divergence you have to wonder if that was it’s peak for a while.

  4. H D says:

    Previous 4th traded and bounce. SPX HWB now. #butthevix IMO this is just more round numbers as resistance. 2200, 2300, 2400 all got hits. Working till it doesn’t

  5. Small bear flag on DJT broken at 9125–PO to 8900.If THAT happens,a larger bear flag would have a PO of 8500.Unless bear flags were eliminated too.

    • pooch77 says:

      learned you kidding me?we cant even sustain a 1 % move down for 1day

      • Preaching to the choir.Corrections have to start somewhere.Might as well be the transports…doesn’t look like Apple will bite.

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          probably not, Apple’s declining margin’s is just too much fuel to let it drop. =)

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            that and their crappy China numbers but don’t worry China doesn’t matter either. Saturated markets are much more important to Apple’s future success!!!!

            • tommyboys says:

              AAPL had surprising increase in MAC sales and guided higher. Just when all feel
              the laptop is dead they’re tirning around. Projections are for decent growth for next few years. Also their “services” diaplayed surprising growth and projects big over coming three years. AAPL will get to $1B cap.

  6. vivelaamo says:

    Today was a good reminder of how frustrating it must be for Perma-bears.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Think it’s just difficult to run trades all round at the moment. Getting the entries isn’t too hard but have to be prepared to close for small profits as the big ones aren’t on. It’s clearly forming some sort of top (unless there’s a big break of 2400 with conviction) so odds are good holding shorts here will come good, but probably not worth the stress!

    • pooch77 says:

      Thought rut would close no worse than 1% down,now it looks to be green by close.

    • kvilia says:

      How about Grinding-Bears? Support validated on es, so what? Nothing to cry about.

  7. phil1247 says:

    gold
    out of all shorts
    above 1229 and especially 1234 could spark massive short squeeze

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Testing Weekly Pivot Test/Fail Zone
    Continued Failures at Monthly PTFZ suggest MPP Test. We’ll See.
    GL ALL

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/k2wqo3xp/

  9. GdX has crossed the 10 and 20 d EMAs.The 20 at 22.28.MACD crossed up.All very bullish short term.Watch the 20 d now for support.Later.(What happened with equities?It’s half a crash…from the new Yellen book…lol))

  10. phil1247 says:

    GOLD / SILVER
    tight leash on all shorts now
    no interest in buying
    but shorts are getting risky here with squeeze potential
    short term cycles bottom this week

  11. phil1247 says:

    TLT… /ZB

    bond crash continues………..
    bonds not waiting for the fed
    another point or so lower and we could see panic selling

    • lunker1 says:

      TLT has gone sideways within a 7% sideways range all year. not a crash. that’s a word to be careful with.

      • phil1247 says:

        took profits tbt 39.22 target
        looking to reload on further pullback
        tlt could squeeze up to 123
        SHORT of a lifetime if it gets there
        target TLT is 101 ………yes it will be a crash

  12. mcgcapital says:

    Short FTSE again from 7395. Thinking a retrace to 7340 could be on before a break through 7400, but not easy to run shorts in this zero volatility environment.

  13. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-stock-market-decline-may-be-around-the-corner-according-to-elliott-wave-analysis-2017-05-10
    Avi’s two cents…which is what I’d have left,if I listened to him on gold in the last year.Good luck all.

  14. Tomorrow should be a gap and go. I will look to short the close.

    • One last comment. In my opinion we are in the final phase of a major wave up. When it finishes 2455 or under, we will have a drop of at least to 2100. Risk is to the downside. There is no way in my opinion we reach over 2525 before we hit. 2100. My 2 cents. Best of luck

      • vivelaamo says:

        It could be finished.

      • mjtplayer says:

        The latest wave might be over, we made a slightly HH on the SPX and the minor 5 ED I’ve been tracking will break on this mornings’ gap down open. If it is/was an ED, the SPX should accelerate lower from here, down towards the April lows in short order. If not, than something else is going on; we’ll see…

        • I was wrong. I got out of the market about 30 minutes before yesterday’s close because I wasn’t sure which way it was going. I thought we had 1 more high. Didn’t loos, but didn’t catch the 15 sp point down. See what happens from here.

      • hooloo1957 says:

        Why do you feel that way though.

  15. stormchaser80llc says:

    Risk is on, says HYG:IEF. We can see it in Oil’s performance, and market breadth indicators are gaining momentum. 2391 support line stood tall today, and prices look to be firming up after a second round of consolidation. If I am correct, SPX should be making new All Time Highs shortly.

    My proprietary Technicals Model was higher today (as was McClellan), and is coming off a Technicals Thrust in late April which signaled a clear bullish trend. However now I am tracking 2 negative divergences. Even if SPX makes new All Time Highs, the model is suggesting lower prices (a change in trend) will be upon us sooner than the market cheerleaders think.

    VIX may be firming up, and its MACD gave a BUY signal Tuesday. It may be a head fake but no way to know, just need to closely watch VIX here. Market needs to zoom higher to fake out the herd, before turning lower.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com). However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback on pros and cons!! Right now the 1, 5 and 10-minute models are back online and other time frames will be restored as enough data is collected one by one.

    • H D says:

      Ya, the VIX. Look at that! It’s low, measures volatility and SPX is +0.11% today. Amazing.

      • fionamargaret says:

        HD, the thing that interested me the most today..at least sufficiently for me to question, was why GS and another house came out suggesting buying commodities.
        The reply…because we have to believe in the reflationary story.
        Now, if Trump takes his deal-making skills to NK, and works out “The Real Deal”, then we are really talking. Try thinking of all that that would suggest expanding NK into the future.
        I really think Kim and Putin just want to be included….well, let’s hope so.x

        • H D says:

          The thing that has interested me for years is people wanting to lose money doing technical analysis on the VIX, like it’s a stock.

        • fionamargaret says:

          …and if I was an advisor to President Trump, I would be suggesting Comey and any other side stories would disappear if he was totally involved in World Peace.
          Moon Jae-in is thinking along the same lines….maybe olive branches are in bloom…x

  16. Thanks Tony. Forgot to fill out the form prior to entering Swarm but will be in attendance next week. Visually, there appears to be a positive correlation between average true range and VIX……meaning these lazy, painful days may be around awhile. Odds of a rate hike in June continue to increase and as of this writing stand at 88%, suggesting rates may start accelerating towards the end of this month if the past is any guide. With core PCE at 1.6%, this could be weighing on gold which tends to be allergic to higher real rates ceteris paribus. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=dH6c

  17. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  18. Thanks Mr C.GDX fans…stochastics escaped being embedded.Need another up day tomorrow and the bounce should continue.Later all.

    • mjtplayer says:

      GDX could rally another $1 or so if gold can catch a bid and bounce. I don’t know which way the next $20 will be in gold, could test critical support at the $1,200 area or could rally and test prior support at $1,240.

      If gold can rally up to $1,240 area and/or GDX around $23 I will re-short both

      • kvilia says:

        MJ, this would be a good trade if gold ran from here, however if it touches 1210 and runs, I am afraid 1240 will be blown away like it was not even there.

        • mjtplayer says:

          I wouldn’t worry about that, I would worry that gold blasts through $1,200 on the downside and makes a run at the $1,140 area, not sure gold is ready to do that yet either…

          • kvilia says:

            I doubt it. 1200 is solid support, so we may wiggle around here up and down but eventually will launch off to 1350. Unless, of course, 1190 is taken out.

  19. dan pulford says:

    TY TC for your diligent analysis of the markets.

  20. kvilia says:

    Boring markets, Tony. Thank you for the PPs.

  21. 123 abc says:

    Great update, thank you for the key levels Tony.


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