Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: again higher open then pullback, DOW -37

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened 3 points above yesterday’s SPX 2399 close. By 10am the SPX hit a new all-time high at 2404, and then started to pullback. Also at 10am wholesale inventories were reported higher: 0.2% v 0.3%. The market then drifted lower, with 3 point bounces along the way, until it hit SPX 2392 around 3:30. Then a bounce into the close ended the day at SPX 2397.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude dropped 50 cents, Gold slid $7, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Tomorrow: export/import prices at 8:30, then the federal budget at 2pm.

The market opened at an all-time high today, hit SPX 2404, (within the 2411 pivot range), setup a short negative divergence, and then pulled back. The third wave we have been tracking from SPX 2345 looks like it could have ended today. This would be confirmed with a drop into the low SPX 2380’s. Support for any pullback looks to be around SPX 2380, where the market double bottomed last week. A decline to below SPX 2361 would suggest the entire 2329-2404 rally as a B wave. Other than that it looks like a normal pullback in an ongoing uptrend. Short term support is at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2361, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Short term momentum neared oversold after posting a negative divergence at the high. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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93 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. bears gotta be disappointed today. new highs tomorrow

  2. tommyboys says:

    NYAD strong almost 2/1 positive. Nasdaq not quite that strong but decent.

  3. kvilia says:

    Learned, how do you read recent miners’s strength? Short covering rally or gc is about to bottom at 1210?

    • Going day by day.If and when GDX unembeds (haven’t checked yet,just got home),then should get to 23.50 minimum.If it doesn’t and falls back tomorrow…more downside.The possible fractal I gave a chance of happening–with a gap up today–was a smaller version of the previous low.More upside follow through needed Thursday.

  4. jhjoyner says:

    Looking more and more like a b wave.

  5. I am out, covered my long. will watch the close

  6. Excerpt from the upcoming Janet Yellen book,”Redefining the Stock Market”.
    “After many years in economics,we at the Fed had grown tired of what the generally accepted definitions of a bear market,correction and other market terms,meant.The Fed had changed the game and now the ECB and Kuroda had joined in with their own QE (stock buying).
    With that in mind,this book is designed to give notice to the public,that the perameters usually associated with those conditions should be considered obsolete–thanks to our policies.
    Whereas a bear market used to be defined as a 20% drop–change it to 2%.
    A correction used to be defined as a 10% drop.It’s now a 1% drop from top to bottom.
    A “crash” will be defined as a 200 point drop in one trading day.(we will intervene on those rare occasions).
    Chart formations have been troublesome to the Fed for years.Head and shoulders patterns,rounding tops and broken uptrend lines have been ordered to be programmed out of the algos of our trading partners at Chase,Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch.These patterns have been determined to be unproductive to the goals of the Fed.Other changes:
    “Negative divergences” should now be considered buy signals ,while “positive divergences” will remain “positive divergences” and buy signals as well.
    “Profit taking” will be defined as a day where stocks did not go up substantially.
    The remainder of this book will explain in detail the new stock market and why you should mortgage your house and take large loans out to participate in a guaranteed bull market.THAT term,”bull market”,to everyone’s relief,will remain unchanged.”
    The end

  7. phil1247 says:

    /GC

    1209 target is next …

    that violates the .50 long from lows ….
    could get panic selling after that

    • kvilia says:

      There is also .61 at 1190, so quick 20 pts drop may create a good entry point. If 1190 violated, the hell is going to break loose for gold.

  8. dan pulford says:

    SPX 2405 10 min rev h&s target.

  9. fotis2 says:

    On a scale of 1-10 what chances would a politician like Macron have in the US of being voted president.

  10. phil1247 says:

    /CL

    A = C = 48.77 = short entry

  11. mjtplayer says:

    I’d like to see gold rally back to the $1,240 area where it broke down – back to the scene of the crime.

    We’ll see if it gets there, if so gold is re-short there. Gold could also test the $1,200 area first before a larger bounce, tough to say.

  12. kvilia says:

    CL on the way to 49.5 where I will short. Cheers,

    • fionamargaret says:

      There was an interesting analyst on Bloomberg, and he suggested bonds have had their run, ditto for stocks, and suggested precious metals, and NG and oil.
      UCO, UGAZ, UGLD, USLV.

  13. jhjoyner says:

    Low vix equals small waves

  14. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Failure at W/M Pivot R ~ Testing WPP
    In the Buy Zone for the next leg up, or not!
    GL All

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/tNeoG4pp/

  15. scottycj1 says:

    We are in a weak astro level until the 19th. Market is holding well in the face of it. Believe we trade sideways into the middle of next week when there is a yearly CIT. 225 years (15 squared) from the founding of the NYSE on May 17th. Might be good fireworks

  16. mcgcapital says:

    Looks very bullish today. FTSE broke downtrend line.. possible resistance at 7400 area but not shortable as there’s a 15 point dividend at the close.

  17. vivelaamo says:

    Hmmm. This is why I generally prefer to stay bullish. Still early though.

  18. phil1247 says:

    TLT
    waiting for next short entry around 121.5
    but not too crazy about it cuz its possible to get a squeeze up to 123
    there i would be happy to short

  19. long from here unless 2392 fails, good luck

  20. ariez5 says:

    Well, I have never done this. But I am short AMZN. If you have a system, you cannot choose which setups to take.

  21. Let’s see if we can squeeze it up to 2411 today

  22. micky says:

    I have copper since Jan 16 made a 123 or an abc to feb this year. Below 53 and the odds are it was an abc. Shorter term looking lower 54 area support.

    • fotis2 says:

      According to Fortune, Singer focused from early times “on distressed assets,” buying up bankrupt firms’ debt and acquiring “a reputation for strong-arming his way to profit.”

      a glorified loanshark.

      • CB says:

        good thing he’s letting us know that he’s ready to strike again, though 😉

        Thanks Francesca. Interesting!

  23. Market looks frothy here to me. If we turn down, I am expecting at least a gap fill. If we break below the correction lows of S&P 2322, looks like 2200 is in play.

  24. dan pulford says:

    Futures printed a double zz, a bottom maybe. I got few grand on UPRO

    • fionamargaret says:

      Two pianists and both set out the same way with classical structure, but both ended up with music saying something different to each.
      Horowitz the total master of tonal pronunciation, the electrifying rapport with his audience, was surely the greatest classical pianist…and yes Tara, he loved playing with Toscanini, and also married Toscanini’s daughter, so there is a love story too….
      Evans approaches the piano and somehow wrings the soul out of the music in a totally unique way. His heart is laid bare on the keys. Sigh x

  25. stormchaser80llc says:

    SPX Futures hit an All Time High at the open of trading Sunday night. This recent correction may have ended dramatically this afternoon with a drop and pop before the closing bell. Total additional gains may only be a couple percent so we should be mentally prepared to switch to shorts when the time comes. HYG:IEF made a late April-May uptrend high today before falling back. Technicals are beginning to shape up too. A sign that risk on is gaining momentum.

    Breadth remains strong, but off uptrend highs. My proprietary Technicals Model was higher today (as was McClellan), and is coming off a Technicals Thrust in late April which signaled a clear bullish trend. VIX may be firming up, and its MACD gave a BUY signal today. It may be a head fake but no way to know, just need to closely watch VIX here. Market needs to zoom higher to fake out the herd, before turning lower. Oil made a significant bottom on Friday and is feeling its way higher.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com). However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents. On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback on pros and cons!! Right now the 1-minute model is back online and other timeframes will be restored as enough data is collected one by one.

    • The McClellan oscillator was not higher today; in fact it fell from 0 to -16. The summation index has a series of 3 declining tops.

    • CB says:

      Thanks Storm.
      How about that HO that was triggered last week?… The last two were non-starters, right?

  26. Did the Swarm predict Comey would get fired today?

  27. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/CZVFOJ?image

    /NQ

    test of 5700 coming up

  28. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #GOLD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  29. vivelaamo says:

    Thank Tony. I’m short Russel for the week. Expecting it to lead the way.

  30. 123 abc says:

    First chart is potential Minor-5 development, other two are B-wave scenarios…



  31. dan pulford says:

    Thanks again for hard work & passion in it, Tony.

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