Monday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then small pullback, DOW +5

Overnight Macron, as expected, won the French election. Asian markets gained 1.0%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were flat to higher overnight, and the market opened at the all-time high of SPX 2401. Then it started to pullback. At 11:30 the SPX hit 2394, rallied to 2399 by 2pm, dipped to 2396 in the closing hour, and ended unchanged at 2399 for the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were unchanged, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude added 25 cents, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Tomorrow: wholesale inventories at 10am.

Today the SPX opened at its all-time high of 2401, but immediately pulled back. One could say that Minor wave 5 has now reached its minimum with the matching high. One could also say Minor 5 is just getting underway, since previous uptrends have been between 202-317 points. And this one has only rallied 79 points from its absolute downtrend low at SPX 2322. Either way a short term pullback can occur at any time. The wave count remains unchanged with three waves up from the SPX 2329 low: 2361-2345-2401. SPX 2361 remains a key level, as noted in the weekend update. Short term support remains at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2361, with resistance at SPX 2401 and the 2411 pivot. Short term momentum declined to neutral during the day. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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86 Responses to Monday update

  1. scottycj1 says:

    History of full moons is lows 2 to 4 days after. Correlation with new moons are highs. Then there are inversions……use the ST RSI to give that indication.

  2. H D says:

    Tony, the $DJI was the big head fake in April at the lows. Looks like it wants to leave us guessing again in May. No HH?

  3. Peter Sliney says:

    On our way to closing the 4-21/ 4-24 gap.

  4. tommyboys says:

    Full moon tomorrow. Typically coincide with lows…

  5. dan pulford says:

    sold DSLV @ $30.10

  6. torehund says:

    Btk coming out of an x-wave and 2 days basing pattern, bull 🙂

  7. Bud Fox says:

    Looks like, a short term top, has been created…..

  8. johnnymagicmoney says:

    market at all time highs but volume at 20 year low. Volatility at a 25 year low and markets unable to impulse higher at record levels. I think everyone should do quadruple leverage S&P ETF’s

    I think that is the smartest move ever

    • vivelaamo says:

      You sound upset about something.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        nope. I am encouraging all Bulls to take massive risk right here. I think its smart

        • vivelaamo says:

          You think so? Thanks for the advice 👍🏽

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            take out a mortgage on your home……………100% financing………….quadruple S&P ETF’s

            cant fail…………..market never ever goes down. Its a new paradigm

            The FED is the best. They are genius. They have found a way to never repeat any mistake from the past. Its the new and improved infallible FED. They rock dude

            • vivelaamo says:

              You sound upset again 😀 On a serious note I still think gaps will be filled before the next strong move up. Good luck Johnny.

  9. Jim B. says:

    Gundlach says to short S&P. That hopefully will get upside impulse going…

  10. Atlanta GDP cut from 4.2 to 3.6.How they had it over 4 to start is a great question for those with “special knowledge” of how that could be computed.A seasonal bounceback incorporated in the softwear?Quite an assumption…but what’s new?

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      50 bucks they lower it three more times before the actual data comes out

      it will end sub being sub 2%

      new credit dropping, auto sales poor, savings up, spending tepid, real income dropping, interest rates higher, and other hard data weakening,

      employment is higher (although that data is debatable) but its not finding its way to the economy ………..

      market is fixated on job numbers ignoring all other soft data …………its their way of justifying higher prices. Used to be fixated on the FED not moving, then it was fixated on Trump and rates moving, and now it is fixated on job data all the while ignoring all other soft or poor data.

  11. vivelaamo says:

    Wake me up when the stock market starts moving again.

  12. Still fascinated with the VIX action…today’s intraday low of 9.56 (so far!) was only exceeded 3 other times in its history…those days were the 22nd, 23rd, and 27th of December…1993.

    • H D says:

      Was a different index then. In ’93 VIX was calculated from the OEX. So VIX 9 then was different. Also a 7 point range on the index back then was >1% move. Today’s range SPX is <0.2%. VIX 9 now is much less volatility. VIX is always a great conversation item but has ZERO trading application.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Kimble’s chart to be posted tonight is on the VIX….I haven’t had time to look at it.

  13. dan pulford says:

    UUP wants to break out… holding DSLV, stop just below the 1.618 ext long

  14. jhjoyner says:

    Is spx breaking out of a cup and handle pattern today?

  15. scottycj1 says:

    A close below 1200 on Gold should open up the flood gates to the downside.

  16. mcgcapital says:

    There doesn’t seem to be much follow through buying on the new SPX high. Makes it look more like the end of a move than the start of a breakout into a new trading range. When 2200 and 2300 broke it accelerated higher pretty quickly.

  17. Alphabet now has a -div on the daily.Damn if Apple isn’t trying to wipe out the weekly one.Looked impossible.These Nasdaq stocks are all embedded–as is Nasdaq,which is keeping this going.Once stochastics lets go,the correction starts–maybe.This is relentless buying as of now.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Small caps will lead…

    • fionamargaret says:

      Well Learned I got filled in my buys of gold and silver (the metals)…what do you think?
      All the FANG stocks got upgraded this morning…someone has to upgrade gold and silver…

        • Can anyone believe Bitcon…I mean Bitcoin?An imaginary currency that’s going through the stratosphere.To me,it’s like Mr C proclaiming that the many boxes of #2 pencils he has stored away in a spare room are now worth $1700 a pencil–and we all agree to that fact.At least you can see the pencils.
          The upside to Bitcon is,it doesn’t seem to be bothered by the dollar.The downside is,money seems to be coming out of gold into these fantasy currencies.Japan just approved Bitcon as a method of payment.I think a mania is going on over there–and gold is being sold to participate in buying Bitcon.
          Another symptom of a dysfunctional financial system.

  18. phil1247 says:

    /NQ

    blasting thru profit targets to the upside

    raised stops on TQQQ

  19. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Fib & Pivot Confluence @ 241 (5 = 1)
    Top of Monthly Pivot Breakout Test/Fail Zone @ 241
    GL All

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/Xedua9Wl/

  20. vivelaamo says:

    I would take up Newbies trade today.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Has to come off today for me or I think it looks too bullish. Got the FTSE downtrend line around 7350s plus January high at 7365… and SPX at 2400.. break those and it looks strong. Doesn’t make much sense to me with sterling holding up well and oil looking shaky, but for some reason the vol is so low

      • mcgcapital says:

        FTSE should turn here if it’s going to. Sells in the 7350s with stops just above 7365 is the play. Above there then I think it goes higher given time.

    • tommyboys says:

      Dunno if W5 kicking off we could see SP 2500 next 4-6 weeks.

  21. Richard Glackin says:

    Market action since March 1st has been truly fascinating…as have been the comments on this board. Yes, I am still in the ‘B’ wave camp but acknowledge this count could go either 1 of 5 or, ‘c’ of 4.
    If you look at the micro structure in the ES, the double bottom at 2376, indicate via substructure that this double bottom is a 1-2. If so, the peak at 2403.50 is a subsequent wave 3. In that case we still have a 4-5 to go. The market will always try to fool the most people possible. With that in mind, before the close I starting to expect a possible wave 5 peak around 2411 so I hedged my shorts.

    Incidentally, I was out of all shorts for that wave 3 run up. Then, got back in Monday am.

    If we get that “one more higher high” my hedges will offset any losses on my shorts. Otherwise, I’ll probably lose a few cents on the hedges. Either way; if this is a 1 of 5, then we pull back to 2363…if this is a ‘B’ wave, then we pull back to 2300.

    Good luck to everyone.

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Note also with the recent fascination with the volatility ETF’s / indices…VIX and VXX, I generally stay away from these when the market is dropping because you’re fighting decay. They are a much better bet shorting them when the market is going up because you are then on the side of decay. I must admit it is tempting because both are so low. However, I stay away from VIX and go with VXX because it better reflects the market moves. Just an FYI.

  22. mjtplayer says:

    VIX, weekly candles. The spring is coiling….

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/451cHQYR/

    • Ira Epstein is actually giving a possibility of a 7.45 VIX.Incredible.Of course he thought a couple weeks ago that VIX had broken to the upside and was headed for 20.
      He also says,”If GDX can move up tomorrow–out of an embedded reading–a rally to 22.57 minimum.”

      • mjtplayer says:

        According to the data from TradingView, the all-time record low in the VIX was 8.60 from Dec 18th, 2006; although stockcharts shows that low at 9.39. Other than that, the only other time the VIX traded in the low-mid 9’s was Dec 1993.

        Wherever the VIX bottoms, we know that downside form here is extremely limited. After both instances, in 1993 & 2006, the VIX spiked into the low-mid 20’s within a few months.

        Very dangerous being short the VIX here and now….

  23. Jack Sparrow says:

    the only thing i miss is when trader joe and aah went to france from this board to settle their dispute

  24. Wondering if a fractal will happen on GDX to repeat the last low turnaround.It might,if we get a small drop tomorrow and then a gap up on Wednesday.The Fed speakers weren’t too hawkish today-and the dollar pulled back somewhat tonight.Quiet day,except the Transports kept my interest with a near 100 point drop.I was almost hoping for GDX to drop under 20.80 for a triple +div–but it didn’t happen.Later.

  25. stormchaser80llc says:

    Those who follow futures know that SPX hit an All Time High at the open of trading Sunday night. This was likely the end of 3 of 3 of 5, and we saw a choppy loss of momentum which is expected in a wave 4 lower. This should complete soon and we will be on our way higher once again. Total additional gains may only be a couple percent so we should be mentally prepared to switch to shorts when the time comes.

    Breadth remains strong, but off uptrend highs. My proprietary Technicals Model was higher today (as was McClellan), and is coming off a Technicals Thrust in late April which signaled a clear bullish trend. VIX dropped significantly, lots of folks bought protection heading into the weekend. Market needs to zoom higher to fake out the herd, before turning lower. Oil had gains and as I said last week, made a significant bottom on Friday.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com). However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

    • torehund says:

      Tonys OEW, Martins techs and “meat on the bone fundamental insight” plus your own evaluation, cant get better than that. If these 3 sources agrees there are good odds for success.

  26. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #OIL at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  27. mjtplayer says:

    Very bullish candle for the .DXY today, bullish “outside day”, fully engulfing Friday’s candle. Watch 99.46 for Friday’s close, below that level on the weekly close would be a bullish “outside week”.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/XV3V4yse/

    Mirror image for the Euro, potentially completed 5mo bear flag. Get short some Euro’s…

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/E7avUfpA/

    If this plays out, it would not be good news for commodities. Keep an eye on copper!!

  28. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony and congrats 123 for significant contributions and a WIN. Noticed tran weekly macd is coming out of a 5 month X-wave, Bull ✨ Bull Usd And Tbt

  29. 123 abc says:

    Tony, did I win last week’s Swarm?! Just checking because I’ve been sent an Amazon gift card and can’t believe that I could have won for the second time!


  30. llerias7 says:

    Thanks, Tony. A critical point: should we rule out today´s 2401 as a top of a B-wave? Or just a top of minute 1/minor 5 ?

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