Friday update

SHORT TERM: after good NFP market moves higher, DOW +55

Overnight Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe open higher, ahead of Sunday’s French vote, and gained 0.8%. US index futures were flat, then higher overnight. At 8:30 monthly payrolls were reported higher: 211k v 79k, and unemployment declined to 4.4%. The market opened 5 points above yesterday’s SPX 2390 close. It then pulled back to SPX 2389 by 10:30, before rallying into the afternoon. At 11:30 FED vice chair Fischer: Then at 1:30 chair Yellen: At 3pm consumer credit was reported higher: $16.4b v $15.0b. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2399 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds added 3 ticks, Crude rose 85 cents, Gold ticked up $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 55.4% v 55.9%, and the Q2 GDP estimate was reported lower: 4.2% v 4.3%.

The market opened higher today, pulled back to slightly negative, traded in a range for 2 hours, then rallied to SPX 2399. Its highest level since SPX 2401 on March 1st. After several successful tests of the low SPX 2380’s it looks like the market may be readying to breakout. French elections on Sunday may be the nay or yea catalyst. As noted earlier in the week: need to reach or exceed SPX 2398 to get the short term waves looking impulsive again. SPX 2399 should do it. A more detailed update in the weekend report. Kentucky Derby Saturday: Irish War Cry looks primed. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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32 Responses to Friday update

  1. bfquant says:

    TC. Green 2 on your FTSE daily chart looks like an irregular flat, and if so, isn’t C supposed to have 5 waves down? I am not seeing 5 waves.

  2. fionamargaret says:

    I shall post the stuff from my mailbox tomorrow…in the meanwhile if you would like to listen to some music with me while I write……

    Thanks Tony. x

    • fionamargaret says:

      …and “Always Dreaming” should win the Kentucky Derby.

    • CampFreddie says:

      Bill Evans – 🙂

      • fionamargaret says:

        I wondered where your tastes lay Freddie.
        I have a thing for rumpled piano players, and wasn’t he just the best…superb skills of interpretation and layering…
        I hope you liked the Saturday one of him playing “What are you doing for the rest of your life.”…a Michel Legrand composition, but interpreted so beautifully by Evans….I don’t think we will ever hear better. x

  3. dan pulford says:

    Excellent analysis Tony, thanks again for your work.

  4. torehund says:

    Some gueeswork on oil for you. Looks omnious on the macd, and if (on price) the X breaks Down it could retest bottom. Its a rollover until proven otherwise.

    • fionamargaret says:

      This is the chart I was discussing at around midnight last night…the buy at 44….not forever Tore. I see some drama in your chart also.,PWTADANRRO%5BP%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!!!2!20%5D

      • torehund says:

        Listen carefullyto this fabulous album, uplifting emotionally as well as melancholic simultaneously, bathing the soul.
        A little like impending rate hikes, good for some and bad for some, the product longer term is good for all.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Thanks Tore, I look forward to listening to it……so does that mean the end to the Surf Creature….
          Nice when people send music….no chanting tonight….tomorrow a totally great Russian Orthodox one…x

          • fionamargaret says:

            The album took me back to times spent in a friend’s screen printing studio, where artists, writers and musicians would gather…psychedelic music, smoke, pretty words…oh how we were going to change the world…..

            • Whenever I hear groups play psychedelic music as admirers of the genre,I immediately go back to the original great ones.Though I wasn’t old enough to appreciate it at the time,when I WAS old enough,I could not get enough of 1966-1972 music.Movies as well.
              A great album to me is Country Joe and the Fish–1967’s “Electric Music for the Mind and Body.”One of a kind consistant brilliance.
              That and the Doors first album is beyond compare for quality mindblowing songs.Actually a group called Love released a magnificent album in 1967 as well,”Forever Changes”.Give them a listen if you haven’t already.Cheers.

            • torehund says:

              Maybe we will enter a new era of common understanding, and that hardship is a collective burden, and individuals arent the ones to blame. Take the best of collectivism (nationalism, commu/facism, collectivism with a wrong tilt) and mix it with individual rights and freedom, then you have a good template. Follow the wishes of the individual, and it will be of benefit for the greater good too. Complicated concept to mix, but in the end thats what works for making a better society. I bet Fiona will wear hippie jeans once more :):)
              As Tony mentioned in the Weekend update Trump will be dragged along P-III, this man certainly has golden pockets. He was never really digging for gold, he just fancied the challenge. You will see.

              • I wish he hadn’t dug in with Goldman Sachs.I don’t know who else was qualified,but there HAD to have been new faces with new ideas,not tied to the same old system.Instead of draining the swamp,the swamp seems to be draining the Donald.

      • torehund says:

        Yes Fiona, the red candle could play out, and it can hold at 30 a barel, if not prepare for 7-12 a barrel. But if the last X-wave holds here then look to the motive 1-2 up from bottom and 120 a barrel. Major crossroads at works, and its tri-furcated.

  5. A battle between an impulsive wave and monster -divs on the weekly.Contestants,to your corners.Remember no head butting,no hitting below the belt (meaning no CB interference).May the better system win.Or maybe they both do–a draw.

  6. llerias7 says:

    Tony, would you mind to explain the weekly chart on FTSE100? Is it in a Major 3 of P3?

    • fenster6 says:

      I dont understand this swarm intelliegence that Tony and many of you are using but it looks like it is as often wrong as right

      Predicted a Bernie upset win in jan 2016

      • phil1247 says:

        its difficult to make predictions……………….

        especially about the future

      • 123 abc says:

        You can see the OEW question & answer results log here:

        —78% of us on this blog say Macron wins.
        —Majority suggested Minor-5 was underway on 25 Apr.

      • The main point on this particular one, The OEW one, is that the participant more often are “attaching the donkey where the owner wants” on giving their preferences and less keen to be fully honest.
        At the end it is more like a brain washing and less a brain storming: reason why I am avoiding it. A shame, because if used wisely could be the best thing ever. But difficult to select participants, so difficult to be mixed wit a bunch of sheep instead of a bunch of brains.

  7. CB says:

    Nice call, Tony!
    Have a great weekend, everybody!

  8. jhjoyner says:

    So we end the week with a new closing high in SPX.

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