SHORT TERM: higher open then another choppy day, DOW -6
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 238k v 257k, and the trade deficit was slightly lower: -$43.7b v -$43.8b. The market opened 3 points above yesterday’s SPX 2388 close, then dipped to 2385 by 10am. At 10am factory orders were reported higher: 0.2% v 1.2%. The market then rallied back to SPX 2391 by 11:30, before dropping down to 2380 by 12:30. After that the market rallied into a SPX 2390 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.05%. Bonds dropped 11 ticks, Crude fell $2.45, Gold slid $11, and the USD was lower too. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls (est. 190k) at 8:30, a speech from FED Fischer at 11:30, a speech from FED Yellen at 1:30, then consumer credit at 3pm.
The market opened higher today, after looking like it was going to breakout before the open, then pulled back and stayed within the OEW 2385 pivot range for the 6th consecutive day. No change today in the wave counts on either the small or larger short term timeframes. Still 7 waves up on the shorter and 3 waves up on the longer, with obviously a recent wave down from SPX 2398 to 2380. With a positive divergence setup on the hourly chart there’s a good opportunity to break out of the trading range. Short term support remains at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2369, with resistance at SPX 2401 and the 2411 pivot. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend