Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW +8

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened lower and ended mixed as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP was reported lower: 177k v 255k. The market gapped down to SPX 2384 at the open after closing at 2391 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market bounced to SPX 2387, then pulled back further. At 10am ISM services was reported higher: 57.5 v 55.2. Just before 11am the SPX hit 2380, and then started to work its way higher. At 2pm the FED released its FOMC statement: Just before the close the SPX hit 2390, then ended the day at 2388.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.35%. Bonds slid 8 ticks, Crude rose 5 cents, Gold dropped $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit at 8:39, then factory orders at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open today for the first time since April 18th. Despite the gap down the market remained in the 2385 pivot range, where it has traded for the past 5 days. Today’s pullback to SPX 2380, from 2398, registered on the smaller wave timeframe. We can now count seven waves up on the smaller timeframe, and three waves up on the larger. The market will need to reach/exceed SPX 2398 to start making this uptrend look impulsive again. If the decline continues, this 2+ week rally may have been just a B wave. Short term support is at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2369, with resistance at SPX 2401 and the 2411 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold at today’s low, then bounced to above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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108 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. phil1247 says:

    45.39 profit target hit ….

    to the tick!

    took profits on DWT …………..hasta all !

  2. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Oil will be down 7% today and the S&P will drop like 3 handles. Then tomorrow oil will be up 2% and market will hit all time highs on oil rally


  3. Hugh Jazole says:

    Has anyone here heard of the Olduvai theory?

    • cyanus66 says:

      Correlating the future of human civilization to the efficiency of fossil fuel consumption, is rather like correlating the increase of computing power to the efficiency of vacuum tubes.
      Outdated, but rather quaint!

  4. vivelaamo says:

    Hate working on days like this. Missed all the action!

    Congrats those shorting oil and gold.

  5. johnnymagicmoney says:

    if oil was down 15 dollars a barrel today the S&P might be down 1% ….maybe lol

    such a bubble

  6. elmer510 says:

    Oil Market is much worse now than three months ago, and that’s affecting the stockmarket in a negative way. Even though OPEC try to stabilize production levels, the US shale industry is speeding up whenever they see a small rise in the oilprice, expecting others to handle the surplus problem. But it seems to me most shale producers are not making much money cause the price they receive is lower than WTI because of transportation and other high costs. And now the price is worse again. But they don’t reduce their investmentments overnight.
    I read Chesapeke and others lost a lot of money on shale.
    Meanwhile the surplus oil and low price keep conventional oil exploration at a low level.
    Then, within two or three years the oilmarket as a whole will see shortage and much higher prices. Not so good, these boom and bust cykles.

  7. H D says:

    “Sell in May” working for oil and gold. A lot of you had that trade correct. Congrats. I didn’t.
    SPX down 1 point in May-seems to be waiting for the Sunday news. Only thing that moves it is elections?

  8. johnnymagicmoney says:

    lots of gaps in those indices below

    ba boom

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      Russell just filled a gap………… the very least I think it back tests the down trend line it broke through at around 135 (IWM) and then lets see what happens

  9. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I cant believe oil isn’t brining the market down much much more

    The passive crowd keeps it afloat!!!!

    • phil1247 says:

      correlations correlations

      where are they when you need them most ?

      eh johnny..?…… they dont work

  10. In order of lousiness:
    1)Gold-Europe CBs selling again?
    2)TLT-with underachieving factory orders
    3)GDX-follows yen and TLT(still +div)
    4)Russell-warning sign?
    5)DJT-in a bear flag.Can’t break 8920.
    Stuff to do today.Later all.

    • By the way,my comment about Avi seems prescient.
      “P.S. Whenever he gives a major target like 20.30 being huge support,you can almost 100% count on that number being tested(and probably broken).Get the popcorn out.Hope he’s right for once.”
      Done til 4pm.

  11. purplember says:

    if a company loses money with every widget, is selling more widgets a good thing ??

    Tesla seems to think so

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      A path to shareholder success by Sir Johnny Magic Money

      A) Find something extremely exciting to endeavor in

      B) Make sure that the product you make is far more complex than feeble minded investors or even the analysts (think space, think engineering, think semiconductors, think possibly even social networking for semiconductor engineers in space even!!!)

      C) Make sure its a product that “can change the world” with big ideas and big concepts. This is called the BSO methodology (or Bright Shiny Object). Your concept must be like a BSO so that when you wave it in the investor’s face they get dazzled and get dizzy and get high and then say buy, Buy, BUY!!! SHINY OBJECT!

      D) The last thing you must accomplish and this is vital to shareholder success in this market…….do not under any conditions make too much money. In fact the more you lose the better it looks because all world changing ideas don’t make money! Duh!!!! Bright Shiny Objects are expensive dammit!!!

  12. Lee X says:

    No one is forced to give or take trading advise on the internet so cheer up guys !

    Who’s long Cattle ? I certainly am not and might give up red meat or just start eating road kill.

    I see it’s raining again Tony
    Im headed to the Heartland this weekend to mow , should be interesting

    • tony caldaro says:

      Mowed Tuesday.
      You will be mowing in the mud.
      Big Muddy close to record flood level.
      Still reminds me of 2011

      • Lee X says:

        Yeah it’s going to suck , I hate leaving tracks.
        Guess Missouri got it even worse.
        Hope things settle down.

        Thx Tony

    • hooloo1957 says:

      Grass-fed beef is healthy to eat

    • fotis2 says:

      Yummy road kill matured AND tenderised in a single package best hare stew I ever had! 😉

    • SPYtrader says:

      Hey Lee,
      I am torn, I love my beef but my state of Nebraska has a big budget short fall. They say from low corn and cattle prices not generating enough tax revenue. I do see my share of road kill. Never been inclined to stop but I may take your recommendation.

      • Lee X says:

        I understand you being torn.

        My Grandfather had strict rules on road kill
        Only eat it if you hit it or you witnessed it being hit.

        Bon appetit SPY !

  13. phil1247 says:

    crude oil focus

    now shifts to 44.50
    below there and 26 dollar target is validated

    gold and silver collapse continues and will continue until
    extension shorts are broken

  14. fotis2 says:

    According to the pros Macron has it in the bag same pros predicted Trump looses and no brexit lets see.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Macron is leading Le Pen by almost 20pts in the polls.

      Hillary was only leading by 1-2pts in the polls pre-election, same with the “no” vote for Brexit; both within the margin or error.

  15. UPDATE: Breakout, for instance,…
    …ndx hourly futures –

  16. Bud Fox says:

    Good Morning to all. The SP500, in my view. Still looks
    over all, higher. But. I also see a greater risk, of a price
    decline, coming forth in the very near future. That said.
    I am in cash, and not interested in trying to pick a price top.
    Color me, Neutral to Bearish into the summer months.

  17. alexhartley1 says:

    Hi Tony. Should there be a neg div on the Euro Daily? Perhaps I am wrong. Far from an expert. Looks like your JPY count is now reflecting a bullish USD count?

  18. purplember says:

    thinking market will go no where until after election in France.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …think oil and gold go up from here…

      • mjtplayer says:

        Not sure why, there’s nothing bullish about gold or oil, both should continue lower in the near term.

        Gold has broken support and the uptrend from the Dec lows, it should start melting down now, joining the miners and silver. Next support area is sub $1,200 around $1,196

        • fionamargaret says:

          Thanks MJT….I had been short oil, but thought the algo that worked so successfully 4 times previously (47-51) would work again, so suggested we go long yesterday in the 47’s.
          I put in bids for gold/silver…not filled until today, where I sold higher to even out my oil losses.
          This is a P&F chart that shows the base of gold going back to 2013. Yes, I know it supposes 850 for a gold price…but I think gold may bounce here….

  19. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble
    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks to Tony, and everyone xx
    There is a base to gold going back to 2013 that we are touching just now….so up…..

  20. CampFreddie says:

    FYI – S&P Futures have posted a range of less than 0.6% for 6 days in a row now.
    The run has not extended to 7 days for at least 20 years.

    • Lots of those unusual stats happening now CF.I read the health plan will pass the house tomorrow.That should give them a chance to cure their 6 day itch.Facebook going to come back to earth?Tesla?I still think risk is to the downside,short term.

  21. Fed fund futures are now pricing in a 93% chance of a rate hike in June. We continue to be astounded by these odds as Wednesday’s FOMC statement was not exceedingly hawkish. But as futures were only pricing in a 69% chance of a hike on Tuesday, we have to respect the power of dollar bulls. The Fed recognized the recent deterioration in data but felt that the slowdown in the first quarter should be “transitory,” and it completely ignored the surprisingly weak nonfarm payroll growth in March by saying the labor market continued to strengthen. The same was true for retail sales – it said fundamentals underlying consumption growth stayed solid even as retail sales fell in April. It is this blind optimism that is fueling bonds, Fed fund futures and the U.S. dollar. At this stage, the dollar will probably continue to March higher into Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report as investors position for the labor-market strength that the Fed is suggesting. USD/JPY will test and most likely break 113 as the dollar pressures other currencies lower.
    –Kathy Lien

  22. mjtplayer says:

    While everyone is watching to see if/when gold breaks it’s uptrend from the Dec lows, another metal has been struggling as well: Dr. Copper. Bad day today, watching the $2.49 – $2.51 area, below that the “must hold” level of $2.45

  23. Thanks Tony. Since the last gap up taking us into this 18 point trading range, all is contained within the 21 point daily candle that tagged 2401. It’s also interesting the market fell 68 points from 2390 to 2322 and, thus far, has risen 69 points off of 2329. Significant???? Maybe not because there is legitimate hourly resistance at 2398. Whatever the count, if we put in three higher lows on the four hour ES chart…..we should go higher notwithstanding a downward sloping 2hr ES chart. To date, the market has not tested serious resistance beginning with ES 2375 though we got close today.

  24. stormchaser80llc says:

    Today made a new pullback low, which I was not expecting. SPX fell below the 2385 pivot briefly, only to quickly recapture it and head back toward the 2391 resistance line. One of my signals turned weakly bearish today, while the signal based on the Technicals Model remains bullish with the model still positive. Breadth remains bullish almost across the board, yet is weakening. SPX hourly still showing consolidation since April 25th, with a narrowing Bollinger Band. This is supportive of the start of a new leg higher this week. While the progress higher has been slow, believe it will start a new leg up as soon as SPX can sustain above 2091. My bullish stance is not only based on technicals and market breadth, but the strong positively diverging signal on my Technicals Model in late April as well as a Technicals Model Thrust. For wavers out there, believe this has been a W4 before another W5 to All Time Highs to come. The HYG:IEF ratio was unexpectedly positive for a down day.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

  25. bouraq says:

    ALL CHARTS ARE FREE TODAY ! Enjoy them here:

  26. purplember says:

    Phil, you replied to my earlier comment FED has nothing to do with it. are you referring to the market or GDP growth?

    i agree GDP growth but imho FED has had a HUGE HUGE impact on stocks in past 8 years. to the point i think we’re in uncharted territory and unsure what happens with next downturn.

  27. kingfrogcash says:

    Facebook Sinks After Guidng Ad Growth Down “Meaningfully”

  28. asaraniti says:

    Hi Tony

    Looking at your 60 minute count for the SPX. Are you suggesting that wave 1 and 2 are minute level waves, or just waves 1 and 2 at unknown level at this time? Since they are labelled in green looks to me that your current thinking, is that they are of minute level. If they are minute level, could SPX 2411 – 2428 be the print top for minute 5 of Intermediate iii ?

    That would make minute 5 less than 50% of minute 1….seems too small in magnitude and time….NASDAQ looks kind of weak lately, may be the NASDAQ are tying to get back in sync with minor wave 4.

    I like the way you ended tonight’s update with levels to watch for a “b” wave versus wave 5.

    Thank you for sharing your expertise with all.

  29. 123 abc says:

    Great update, thank you Tony. Personally still preferring the b-wave scenario.

  30. phil1247 says:

    GOLD has potential support at 1234 but cannot be validated
    until the extension short …currently at 1253… traded above

    as discussed many months ago…
    gold has probably seen its bear market lows

    silver and gdx probably have not

    • kvilia says:

      Phil, miners have been acting pretty resistant compare to this gold decline, perhaps anticipating the support in gold and tracking silver oversold conditions. I certainly see the grounds for a trend change, the question is whether this is going to be a dead cat bounce.

      • phil1247 says:

        kvilia…i agree ..
        21.34 gdx is still holding which is the retest of failed long from dec lows.
        ..its almost as if there is divine intervention holding it up.
        .?conspiracy of central banks buying gold stocks ???
        unless gold and silver can break extension shorts..
        there is no hope for either

  31. kvilia says:

    On the daily gold chart, what would be the prerequisite to update April gold high as a C wave?
    Thank you,

  32. kvilia says:

    Thank you, Tony.
    What do you think, Learned? Is gold trend line going to hold? It dipped through, however 61% has not been violated yet, which is around 1235. Tomorrow will be a telling, however I like less and less how gold behaves and especially how silver behaves. Hopefully there is going to be a bounce here.

    • mjtplayer says:

      No bounce, sorry. Gold hasn’t broken yet, but it’s teetering as we speak.

      Miners and silver have already broken and have been melting down, only makes sense for gold to join

      • kvilia says:

        I will agree with you if/when gold breaks 1235. But even shortly after there will be a bounce exceeding today’s levels. Its all about timing, surely would not want to see gold breaking support tonight.

        • I added 10% GDX today.Either we go to 23.50 in short order or completely crash.If employment #s come in as ISM suggests,gold should rally Friday.I’m assuming a lot though,with ISM equating to the monthly jobs report.Kathy Lien wrote about that correlation last month and was 100% correct.

        • mjtplayer says:

          If the PM complex continues to meltdown over the next couple days then I would expect a temp low next week and a sizable bounce/rally

          Make no mistake though, the trend is down – period. Just wait until the Dollar starts rallying again….

          • Avi Gilburt made the point that he thinks the dollar is not going to go up–and if it does,he doesn’t think there’s a correlation to a gold/GDX decline,since the dollar and GDX both sold off since dollar 103.Not that I agree with him,just stating his theory.

            • mjtplayer says:

              I think it shows inherent weakness in commodities. If oil, gold, etc can’t rally while the Dollar is pulling back and consolidating, then that doesn’t paint a bullish picture overall for commodities


    Dollar yen looks like a decent short here. Stop 113.48. Target below 1.10 for a wave c

  34. Sorry my ignorance Tony, but how do you count a lower low, still a wave up? Cant figure this out..!

  35. phil1247 says:

    SILVER failed test of december lows
    14.35 next major target

    then 10 . 80 eventually

    is it a DOOZIE yet ?

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