Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then quiet day, DOW +36

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market opened 4 points above yesterday’s SPX 2388 close. In the opening minutes the SPX ticked up to 2393, then pulled back to 2386 by 10am. Around 10am monthly auto sales were reported higher: 16.9m v 16.6m. The market then rallied to SPX 2392 again by noon, dipped to 2387 by 3pm, then rose to 2391 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds rose 9 ticks, Crude dropped $1.20, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15, ISM services at 10am, and the FED concludes its FOMC meeting at 2pm.

The market opened higher today, chopped around a bit, and stayed within yesterday’s SPX 2385-2394 range. We are still counting three waves up from the recent SPX 2329 low: 2361-2345-2398. The pullback from SPX 2398 – 2382 is not enough to register on the larger short term count. Nevertheless, the SPX confirmed an uptrend today and we are upgrading the charts to display Minor wave 5 is underway. We are, however, maintaining the possibility that this uptrend, like some others in this bull market, is a B wave. This will be the alternate count which will be posted in green on the hourly chart. If this is truly Minor wave 5 the SPX should start impulsing quite soon. Short term support is at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2369, with resistance at SPX 2401 and the 2411 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. See you at the Swarm, and best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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104 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ WPP into W/M Pivot Test/Fail Zone?
    Or, it Fails here!
    GL All

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/wsN4BKyr/

  2. mjtplayer says:

    So much for PM’s rallying post-Fed; $1,240 test of support in gold – here we come. Below $1,240 and gold joins silver & miners in meltdown mode. We’ll see….

  3. vivelaamo says:

    We’ve just gone absolutely nowhere on a FOMC day. What is bullish about that?

    • Dex T says:

      Most boring day that I can remember in recent history. I keep checking the clock but nothing has happened.

      It seems like everyone just took the day off.

  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    auto sales bad – but it doesn’t matter
    consumer savings up – doesn’t matter
    consumer spending down – doesn’t matter
    China data poor – doesn’t matter
    prices falling again along with oil – doesn’t matter
    The big boy of them all Apple misses revenue, margins, and guidance but it doesn’t matter
    Trump is going to get coporate tax rates done and infrastructure done and this done and that done (only to find out its coming much later at best) but that doesn’t matter now
    GDP was almost in recessionary territory 1st Q but that doesn’t matter
    Valuations have only been higher once in the last 50 years and that’s 2000 but that doesn’t matter either
    And I thought the FED raising was a great thing? Oh not raining is a good thing too!

    My point is that certain waves tend to have certain types of sentiment. We are in the delusional buy buy buy sentiment mode and that tends to accompany the last wave……………….this bull ends in the next year 12 months period

    • phil1247 says:

      easy to tell when the bull ends johnny…………..

      all news will be bad news…
      . the opposite of now

    • mcgcapital says:

      Agree completely it’s in the euphoria stage.. but it’s predictable that when the statement comes out it goes up 95% of the time so you have to buy. I’ve noticed in this market that events tend to be bullish even when there are glaring negatives in the newsflow (e.g. Trump election, Brexit, bad data, geopolitics). The best bears can hope for is picking up the scraps when it drifts down in the absence of any new newsflow. One day it won’t be that way and swing trading will be worthwhile again but in the meantime just got to keep banking small profits!

    • scottycj1 says:

      One more time guys………….it’s not what the news is…it’s how the market reacts to the news.

  5. Dex T says:

    Trump should replace Yellen with Melania!

    • For that to happen,Yellen would have to swap roles and be Mrs.Trump.I don’t think she’s his type.

      • Dex T says:

        Huge step down from what Trump is used to but he could still meetup with Melania. How busy could she be as Fed Chair?

        Yellen could travel the country and work on preventing bullying instead- lol

  6. 2370 please, then I can cover my short and go long

  7. Dex T says:

    Well looks like a rate hike is on the cards for the Fed’s next meet in June!

  8. Your word of the day is…
    “Transitory”.
    Definition:When you forecast something that doesn’t occur,it’s “transitory”.
    Lol.

    • H D says:

      Q1 economic weakness, growth slowing. Hopefully it only takes 1Q to learn you can’t run the Gov’t like a business. I doubt it though. I’m expecting enormous growth, as promised. No excuses.

      • Dex T says:

        He could run it more like a business if he simply went through with the cutbacks and layoffs as he was intending.

        The Federal govt is filled with people opposed to him and his agenda and they are costing the U.S. taxpayers a fortune for nothing in return. Career bureaucrats who only come to life when it’s time to collect their pension or justify their jobs.

        Rather than cater to them he should lay off ten of thousands and force them into the private sector. The U.S. would have a lot more revenue generators and far less consumers of tax payer cash.

        • H D says:

          This is the entire ideology that is being tested right now. 33 states, House, Senate and Potus. No excuses. My personal opinion… cuts are recessionary. We can revisit later.

          • Dex T says:

            The problem is that Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan and other Republicans don’t really want to see much change. The Trump supporters do but it’s a constant fight versus the status quo.

            No way cuts are recessionary. No economy in history has ever grown via bureaucracy. This is how socialist countries in the third world operate

            Obama’s “growth” was due mainly to Debt expansion via the Federal reserve QE- 8 trillion dollars in debt added to the balance sheet.

            • H D says:

              I hear you. Nothing wrong having different opinions. Let’s revisit. I agree, as you are pointing out, republicans don’t know how to govern. Big problem.

              • Dex T says:

                Only “some” of the Republicans. There are some great potential down the ranks that hopefully will step up and bring some change.

      • phil1247 says:

        leading indicators show growth accelerating
        no chance of recession anytime soon
        cant look at economy in rear view mirror HD

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          For gods sake Phil why cant you and every other bull at least recognize the fact that for the last few years we have been hearing the same forward looking crap about how great the economy is going to be in the next quarter or half of the year only to be disappointed. Just say “we like to keep kicking the can of hope down the road and pretend its continually going to get much better and forgetting every time it disappoints us” and leave it at that? There is plenty of things that could bring us to a recession its not even funny. Do recessions start at full employment or when employment is high? Do recessions start when the FED is behind the curve and starts raising rates or when they lower them? Do recessions start when wage pressure or inflation exerts itself or the other way around? I could go on and on but the basic conditions that exist at the beginning of recessions are here right now. Just stick to your extensions

    • Dex T says:

      The Fed will never admit to anything.

      It’s statements like this that question why they even need to hire economists??

      When the economists are wrong they simply explain it away and Yellen and much of her team don’t really bother with the info.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      transitory can also be defined as pretending what is actually happening is not actually happening

  9. mjtplayer says:

    Looks like Puerto Rico is finally going BK, potential $70b municipal bankruptcy would be the largest in history.

    Greece should follow…

    • Dex T says:

      Looong overdue!!!

      Unfortunately the latest U.S.budget approves $300 million in Medicaid for it. Another island welfare dependency.

  10. Dex T says:

    The Trump Team Has Some Big Holes to Fill Among Financial Regulators

    “The White House is working on filling all three open slots at the Federal Reserve Board and will announce a new interim boss for the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a key banking regulator, Wednesday morning, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

    Mnuchin said the vice-chair post, created in Dodd-Frank, is an “enormously important” position and they want to name that as soon as they can, adding the administration would not package all three Fed Board nominees into one announcement and confirmation. Still, Mnuchin said the administration was close to naming the two other Fed selections.”

    http://fortune.com/2017/05/03/donald-trump-financial-regulators/

    • Dex T says:

      Trump and Co are putting people in the Fed-

      The big question is what he does about Yellen when her term ends early next year- hopefully someone new

  11. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  12. fionamargaret says:

    The algo for oil is 47-51, so I think look to go long….until 51 and change.
    If oil starts to go up, perhaps the DJIA will oblige also….there is still a bunch of upside on the DJIA, and TNA…..more than SPX and QQQ as it stands at the moment.

  13. Silver RSI at 5.’Nuff said.

  14. Lee X says:

    Question:

    Does anybody here work/trade/invest/in a common trading room with other liked minded individuals?

    This question is not for the folks with 30+ years experience who trade in a penthouse with 69 HD monitors and a trading chair with built in bidet.

    Thx !

  15. vivelaamo says:

    Hi Tony. How often do your medium term trend changes lead to a reversal shortly afterwards?

  16. scottycj1 says:

    Gold will likely get a bounce from the uptrend line near 1240. The die is cast though and any strength will be temporary. low prices coming later this year

    • phil1247 says:

      key is SILVER
      test of dec 2016 lows failed
      but MORE important is re test of dec 2015 lows failure at 16.50

      below there and 14.30 and then 10.80 targets are validated
      GOLD and GDX would have to collapse under that scenario
      ? hint of dollar short squeeze in the works?

      • scottycj1 says:

        Phil,
        I think we will see gold collapse….lower than most think possible. Sub 1,000 anyway.

        • mjtplayer says:

          Agree, one last flush below $1,000 to crush the remaining gold bugs and get everyone bearish on PM’s.

          I other news, bad day for copper, watching $2.51, below would be a continuation of LL’s and HH’s

  17. They have also placed some Algos at sustain the thing but are unsuccessful. How long can they resist? Don’t think that much…

    • SPX gave advise twice from the top, than other advise and than stayed there for days and days and very few have seen this coming. The long and the algos too have stop losses hope we are not getting to that point too soon. Sorry for the bulls trapped up…. very sorry

  18. lunker1 says:

    phil per dh morning vid bullish above 2380.25 es just hit 79.25 but rebounded. do you see these as hard stops right on the tick or do they have a little bit of play? thx

    • phil1247 says:

      2380 is the .50
      2376.5 is the .618 support….that is what determines break or not
      i would give it to 2376 but no more…

  19. Here’s the breakdown of ISM.Note the employment index.
    The NMI registered 57.5 percent, which is 2.3 percentage points higher than the March reading of 55.2 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate
    The New Orders Index registered 63.2 percent, 4.3 percentage points higher than the reading of 58.9 percent in March.
    The Employment Index decreased 0.2 percentage point in April to 51.4 percent from the March reading of 51.6 percent.
    The Prices Index increased 4.1 percentage points from the March reading of 53.5 percent to 57.6 percent, indicating prices increased for the 13th consecutive month, at a faster

  20. Just tuned in to Fox and saw ISM services at 62.5.Switched to CNBC,it was 57.Dollar liked it a little and the blathering said,”Oh,I see where we’ll get 4% GDP now.”Gold dropped another $2.Santelli said “the employment aspect of it was not impressive and drifting.”
    Last month(and usually),ISM had the employment numbers nailed pretty well.I ll look for more on that aspect of today’s ISM.GDX must not break lower through its +div or kiss it goodbye.It’s trying to lead higher as of now.Good luck all.

  21. It has confirmed an Uptrend situation because it is a failing 5th and not a B. We are done for a larger correction.

  22. blackjak100 says:

    The fed should cause a nice pop today like it has the last 8 years. This AM appears to be a quick tradeable pullback for wave 4 from 2336/2329

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Blackjack, it looks to me like Silver is in wave 5 of C. That would put the target a little above 16. Your thoughts?

  23. gary61b says:

    ES I think after the 2380 touch today and if that does not hold then 2373 to 2368.5 should be next.

  24. phil1247 says:

    / SI

    SILVER

    downside blowout continues

    december lows have failed

    but this is when a wicked counter trend rally could begin

    especially at fomc time when metals usually rally post fomc

    16.71 profit target hit
    tight leash on shorts looking for possible reversal
    does this decline qualify as a DOOZIE yet ???

    • mjtplayer says:

      PM’s could bounce post-Fed, but could continue plunging next week post-election if Macron wins in France, which is what the polls suggest.

      • phil1247 says:

        mjt

        also GDX …….

        december lows failed but retesting now at 21.35

        • mjtplayer says:

          GDX daily oscillators were very oversold Monday. Yesterday’s small bounce helped relieve, could be more of the same today. Would love to see the GDX drift sideways for a couple more days, eliminate the oversold conditions, then drop below $21.14 and accelerate lower

          I’m short GDX, have been for weeks, not covering.

  25. Arthur Knopf says:

    SENTIMENT UPDATE: SPX indicators give SELL at close Tues.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I know you will totally love Carmen, and the British Sea Songs…..the USSR one was just sent to me today and you know how I am with mediaeval monasteries, vespers, masses, requiems and sacred songs…so I had to include it too.
      There is something special about choirs to me….uplifting to the soul…x

  26. stormchaser80llc says:

    Today I added a new chart with 5 more Breadth indicators to track daily. These will help confirm the trend for us. Breadth is bullish across the board, but has come in some during the past several days. This is in line with SPX hourly showing consolidation since April 25th, with a narrowing Bollinger Band. This is supportive of the start of a new leg higher this week. While the progress higher has been slow, believe it will start a new leg up as soon as SPX can sustain above 2091. My bullish stance is not only based on technicals and market breadth, but the strong positively diverging signal on my Technicals Model in late April as well as a Technicals Model Thrust.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com). However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

  27. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  28. Apple earnings blah,next quarter revenue estimate is lower than previously thought.With technicals lackluster as well…now’s the time to correct.Unless Mr Ponzi,I mean Mr. Market says otherwise.

  29. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony, two points for consideration…

    1. Surprised by the uptrend confirmation since the market has been sideways for the last 5 trading days. In addition, price has remained within the 2385 pivot range for a week. Shouldn’t 2398 be exceeded before confirming an uptrend?

    2. The current labelling on the OEW chart defines a Leading Diagonal for Minute-i where the third wave is the shortest and fifth the longest. In a Leading Diagonal, waves 1, 2 and 3 are believed to be successively shorter. If indeed Minor-5 is underway, it is possible to count it as the first chart below?


  30. Tarun Varma says:

    Tony – Curious, what happened today (or for that matter last few days) with tight range, that caused you to “SPX confirmed an uptrend today”? I’m not disagreeing with you (I actually agree highs are around the corner). However, I’m just curious as to what caused the confirmation of uptrend today? Maybe that is proprietary or too simple (that I can’t see it)!?!

  31. Bud Fox says:

    Thank you Tony.
    The OEW count on the DJIA 60 min chart. Appears to be,
    most important to me, as an investor…Take a good look
    at Mr T’s work, impressive…

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