weekend update

REVIEW

The market started to week at SPX 2349. After a gap up opening on Monday, and another gap up opening on Tuesday, the market hit SPX 2398 by Wednesday. After that it pulled back to end the week at SPX 2384. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.45%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the downtick: consumer confidence/sentiment, durable goods, pending home sales, Q1 GDP, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, new home sales and the Chicago PMI. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FED’s FOMC, the ISMs, and monthly payrolls. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

The bull market put in a positive twist this week after the French elections over the weekend. Before even reaching our minimum downside targets for this downtrend markets worldwide gapped up on Monday, continued higher on Tuesday, and then stalled at higher levels for the rest of the week. This activity has created a temporary bifurcation between the US cyclicals and tech sectors. A rare occurrence, but nothing that has not happened before. In time, sometimes as long as 6 months, the two sectors will realign. For now we have the cyclicals barely still in a downtrend, and the techs continuing their uptrend.

Longer term the count in the SPX remains the same. Intermediate waves i and ii in the spring of 2016. Then Minor waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 between June 2016 and April 2017. The current rally, which is already two weeks old, is either Minute B of Minor 4 or Minor 5. As for the Tech sector, they are still clearly in Minor wave 3. Since this can resolve itself in several ways, we’ll just let the market unfold and see what develops. In the mean time the long term target remains unchanged: SPX 3000+ between 2018 and 2020.

MEDIUM TERM: close to confirming an uptrend

In a review of the charts we found some interesting clues to the Minute B/Minor 5 dilemma. The SOX, R2K, XLB, and XLK have already confirmed uptrends after a recent downtrend. The XLP, XLY, XLU and HGX never confirmed a downtrend and are still uptrending like the NDX/NAZ. This suggests about 70% of the US sectors we follow are currently in confirmed uptrends. In the foreign markets the SMI and TSX just reversed into uptrends, while the DJW, ASX, NFTY, CAC, DAX, HSI, IBEX, MIB and STI didn’t experience a recent downtrend. This suggests over 70% of the foreign markets are in confirmed uptrends too. Probabilities suggest a SPX uptrend should be confirmed soon.

If Minor wave 4 did end in April at SPX 2329, it will be labeled as a C wave failure since the A wave declined to 2322 in March. And, might explain the explosive move upwards this week. If this advance is a B wave rally, within another complex correction, then the SPX 2322 level would remain wave A. The C wave to follow will then probably retest those recent lows in conjunction with downtrends in the NDX/NAZ. Medium term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots.

SHORT TERM

From the April SPX 2329 low we currently count three waves up: 2361-2345-2398. The late-week decline to SPX 2382 is a pullback of some degree, but not yet sufficient to figure into the larger short term count. These three waves can either be a 1-2-3 or an a-b-c off that low. Thus far it looks impulsive after a choppy beginning.

Should the recent rally reverse we see support in the SPX 2320’s and then around SPX 2300. Worse case would be the 2286 and 2270 pivot ranges. Should the rally continue there is initial resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Then little resistance until the 2488 pivot. Short term support is at SPX 2369 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum ended the week with what looks like a potential positive divergence. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 1.5%.

European markets were all higher and gained 2.4%.

The DJ World gained 1.9%, and the NYSE gained 1.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend but lost 0.2%.

Crude is now in an uptrend but lost 0.6%.

Gold is also in an uptrend but lost 1.6%.

The USD remains in a downtrend and lost 1.0%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: personal income/spending and the CPI at 8:30, then ISM and construction spending at 10am. Tuesday: auto sales. Wednesday: the ADP, ISM services and the FOMC. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, the trade deficit, and factory orders. Friday: monthly payrolls, consumer credit, then one speech from the FED vice chair and another from the FED chair. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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119 Responses to weekend update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    Still, looking for “new all-time highs” in SP….

  2. Newbie-April-25-07-
    TommyBoy – I just bought 10,000 shares of UVXY at $14.42. I will show YOU how I make money.
    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2ish46q&s=9#.WQeVmNLyupo

  3. gary61b says:

    How would someone count the spx recent 1,2,3 waves up from 2329. I see wave 2 and 3 working within the rules but the break down of wave 1 in five smaller waves, that would be educational, anyone? Thank you in advance.

  4. soulsurfer says:

    Finally got some time on my hands to post an update:

    https://investingintelligent.com/2017/05/01/sp500-what-is-the-significance-of-the-next-top/

    trade safe folks!

    soul

  5. keep buying, naz will be up 60 points today

  6. mcgcapital says:

    Looks good for more downside from here. The last few times we’ve had a bank holiday Monday there’s been the low volume grind higher following the US then Tuesday has been heavily down. A break of 7200 tomorrow morning and 7100 looks on the cards again.

  7. captbara says:

    Japanese index ETFs breaking out of a 20 year resistance.

  8. Jack Sparrow says:

    last few days have been very boring

  9. scottycj1 says:

    Today is a CIT…..the most bullish course would be to have the market close slightly down today.
    That would keep the bull flag intact and accelerate higher tomorrow. This would bring the Stochs back to 50 and allow for another move up. The fact the Gaps have not been filled yet is a very bullish sign. On the other hand Friday closed down so today just might take off…….
    Either way higher prices tomorrow—Higher Highs—shows it was a low

  10. phil1247 says:

    SILVER

    downside blowout continues
    … still looking for 14.35 to be hit eventually
    there is no support on silver until the short breaks

  11. Remember,GDX is bearish until 10d EMA (22.65) is taken out.Later all.

  12. I cancelled my order for VOT because I am not enthused by the market’s action today, except for the QQQ.

  13. One ISM down ( literally 54.6 vs 56.3 est),one to go.AAPL new high with an abysmal weekly RSI .Of course if it goes up 40 points after earnings tomorrow,I think it can wipe that out…lol.Russell not impressive today,gold treading water.Ira said over the weekend,a monthly close over 1268 is very bullish.Silver support at 16.80.Later all.

  14. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPX ~ M/Y Pivot Resistance Zone ~ 2398/2412 (> Uptrend Continues)
    Double Top Test/Fail at YR2, Potential for Test YR1 @ 2288??
    GL All

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/t8P6cdR4/

  15. max torbreck says:

    Hi Tony,
    Has the ASX (recently) been changed to a SC2 in 2009?
    So like SPX currently in P3?
    Cheers

  16. I put in an order for 1000 shares of VOT at 115 for extended hours, but if the futures keep rising, I will be hard-pressed to get the order filled.

  17. Bud Fox says:

    VRA shares, any comments on the stock buy/sell ???

    • It looks as though it is trying to make a bottom. If it rallies more, it will cross above it’s 50-day MA and the weekly PPO will cross above it’s moving average line. Just based on a technical basis, if I already owned it, I would probably hold on to it to see how it did in the next (forthcoming) rally. If you are thinking about buying it, I would do fundamental research to see if it is a real value play (a good company out of favor) or just a business going down a steep hill.

  18. I see that the AAII Sentiment Index bullish % increased by 12.3 to 38% while the bearish % decreased by 7.0 to 31.7% from last week. The current readings are about average historically. But these numbers seem to go up and down the scale as fast as Julie Andrews can sing “Do Re Me”.

  19. I bought back my Principal Mid Cap Growth Fund for my 401K at a price .18% higher than what i sold it for on Monday. For my IRA I will probably buy either another mid cap growth fund or etf, or possibly QTEC.

    • blackjak100 says:

      aah with high yield A/D line hitting ATH along with NYAD last week, this stuff is not going to matter in the near term. Long term who knows…nobody knows. There is just no sign of weakness anywhere and when there is, that’s the time to be prudent and take notice.

    • phil1247 says:

      hussman ..

      broken clock … right twice a day

      shorts are weak and getting killed
      until they can break the extension long at 2372 /esm7

      they will continue to be severely punished

  20. bouraq says:

    Chart of the weekend is $GOLD http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  21. Tony, if you have the time, I would like to ask another question, rephrasing one asked earlier. If minor 4 concluded at the failed C and this is proven a 12345, then the three waves identified thus far would be nano waves and, under this count, any minor correction would be nano 4 of Intermediate 1????? And there would likely be 5 intermediates with typical subdivision until we hit minor 5 and conclude Intermediate III? If you don’t have the time, I fully understand.

  22. torehund says:

    Serious wavy tunes, for OEW traders at inflection.

  23. fionamargaret says:

    Another great Weekend Update and commentaries….thanks Tony and everyone.
    My suggestion for World Peace (which incorporates reality shows and ego) is below alongside Tore’s video

    http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/
    Thanks Colin Twiggs

    http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Weekend_AnalysisApril_29_17.htm
    Thanks Amateur – Investor

    https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=6ab9e5f0-342f-4ab4-baf6-28ee5649fb5c&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
    Thanks Raymond James

    • fionamargaret says:



      • fionamargaret says:

        ..be careful with Bach…the 2nd movement is so totally moving, you might be reduced to tears..x

    • Fiona:
      Thanks. I wonder what year is considered to be the baseline for a “real dollar (re: AAII study) ?” I also tend to think the market already adjusts it’s own prices for inflation

      • fionamargaret says:

        The US used the baseline of prices in the years 1982-1984 as a reference base equal to 100. Thus a CPI of 101 means a 1% increase in inflation….but as I think the market is all- encompassing in its data feed, I think I agree with you George.

  24. torehund says:

    ..stuck in the middle with Kim.

    • fionamargaret says:

      This is what I posted in the FT.

      “Maybe Kim should be invited to Mar-a Lago for a weekend.
      Then “The Art of The Deal” could be followed by “The Real Deal”.
      This is the only way out of this…..to stardom.”

      • torehund says:

        Kim and Donald should go surfing, you GOTTA earn the interest of the Chicks…then they will know it all.

      • fionamargaret says:

        The ultimate reality show…World Peace with Kim….with us all as voyeurs (beat that for audience) As a gentleman wrote to me on FT, the only thing missing is Gore “never lose an opportunity to have sex or be on television” Vidal to write Trump’s biography.

        • torehund says:

          We always meet ourself in the door mirrored in another person, so that we can not avoid to master ourself. Every battle you engage in with others is really about yourself, do we dare to meet the creature ? If yes then we grow. Just seeking out a position where one may appear weak is a path toward strength.

          • tony caldaro says:

            Agree, every encounter that perturbs us illustrates that character trait is within us, despite possibly being dormant. We are all each others teachers.
            Each experience should be observed, experienced, balanced and accepted.

  25. Pingback: The S&P 500 From An Elliott Wave Perspective - munKNEE dot.com

  26. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/7ynC3G?image

    SILVER

    posted last week …. ” silver collapse should be a doozie”
    getting to doozie levels now

    as suggested …. test of december lows was coming
    this was posted near the peak weeks ago
    HOW could this be known weeks in advance?

    must be a conspiracy …
    or central banks selling silver 😉

    • H D says:

      Did silver test December’s low? or even last month’s low? IDK I’m a little bullish metals. GL

      • phil1247 says:

        nothing bullish about silver hd

        riding bollband down..
        test of december low in progress now
        if .618 fails……… dec low could be taken out
        still holding half my ZSL from last week

        • phil1247 says:

          i suppose if i were an EWaver
          the poke above feb high could be a B wave
          and this is C implying another wave up coming later

          but i dont play that game………… fibs dont lie
          if the short breaks ,,,,, goodbye ZSL
          no interest in buying tho

          • H D says:

            Thx amigo, Just a different set of eyes. I don’t see a test of any low in progress. If anything a test of the break out. GL. no trade in SI. I unfortunately own many shiny coins though.

            • phil1247 says:

              i think you will do well very long term hd….
              i want to invest long term in gold .. but still not time yet
              no interest at all in miners..
              .2000 + dollar gold and miners still can go bust

              re : tests of lows ….
              test of last months low has already failed…ie .618 broke of 3/15 to 4/ 17 rally
              test on dec low ongoing…ie .618 held on first drop
              but target not hit
              so test is ongoing still

            • Tarun Varma says:

              HD: why do you have 5/11 date (white column bar) highlighted?


  27. Here’s one from Chris Kimble on GDX.It all STILL comes down to breaking the top black crow at 25.60-.80 & gold 1300.With all the warship news and threats,gold better have a $20 gain tonight minimum.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I had Kimble too, but what a fantastic difference with your commentary alongside…am I the only one who thinks he is somewhat obtuse…

      • He’s afraid to stick his neck out.I’d like to see him post charts when a trendline breaks–not when it’s sitting on it like a duck.Maybe that’s all you get for free..lol.Truthfully,I can’t recall if he’s been right or wrong about any of his charts,that I’ve seen the past couple years.Now Trader Moe is wrong on a regular basis–which is why i don’t post his zig zags anymore.i still have some of his old chart forecasts from January.I should paste one on here for fact check purposes.Later all.

  28. Ajay Singhi says:

    The fall from 2398 till 2382 appears to be an ABC. Another ABC seems to be in progress. 2391.85- 2382 seems to be A. Monday first half may be up till 2390 and then C down starts, targeting 2366 area over the next 2 days.

  29. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

    Several inches of rain so far at my family’s place. And some parts of town getting folks out by boat.

    May flowers I guess

  30. Profits results for Q1 SPX running at 12.5 percent according to Factset this should resolve the high PE hurdle for many investors

  31. Thanks Tony. Enjoy your weekend.

  32. Thanks Tony. If this should prove to be a 12345 following a minor 4, does that mean when we experience a smaller wave 4 the next and final stop is the conclusion of wave 5 which would be also complete minor 5 and Intermediate III?

  33. cj32 says:

    Cr.CBZ

    • mjtplayer says:

      Fun fact: if the DOW makes a new ATH in May, the bull market will officially be 8yrs & 2 mo old. Why does this matter? It will surpass the 1921 – 1929 bull market in duration, which lasted 8yrs and 1 month, and officially become the 2nd longest bull market in history. The longest being 9yrs & 3mo, from Oct 1990 – Jan 2000.

      In order to be the longest bull market in history, the DOW would need to keep running and making new ATH’s into July 2018.

      The last time I checked, the underlying economy (via statistics) was FAR BETTER in both the 1920’s and 1990’s than this lousy sub 2.0% economy of the 2010’s.

      Another fun fact: every single decade the DOW has traded, going back to the late 1800’s, there has been a 20%+ correction/bear market. Every decade, except the 2010’s.

      To say this bull market is “long in the tooth” would be an understatement.

      • what about 1998? that was clearly a 20% correction on a daily closing basis. why do people always claim 1987-2000 or 1990-2000 was a bull. 1998 happened, people need to stop pretending that it didn’t.

      • tony caldaro says:

        SPX dropped 20+% in 2011

        • mjtplayer says:

          Yes Tony, most indicies did, but the DOW did not – thus no bear

          • blackjak100 says:

            GDP is only one small gauge. The economy is roaring right now because there is liquidity everywhere. Rates are hardly rising and still near 0. The Twin Cities area use to be a gem and not crowded. The explosion in growth since 2000 has been utterly amazing causing traffic issues that never use to be a problem. It’s now become a melting pot because people realize the winters aren’t as bad as they once perceived. Economic activity is very robust here and you can see it with your own eyes. This is the best gauge IMO.

      • H D says:

        great stats mjt!

    • cj32 says:

  34. stormchaser80llc says:

    Time for another log-in free Weekend. You don’t need to be signed up to see what daily posts look like, before deciding.

    All signals remain bullish, and judging from one timing indicator, as well as the Technicals Model Thrust recorded this week, it remains the primary trend for swing traders. SPX has been in a pull-back as predicted several days ago, which is healthy for the current uptrend. Breadth remains strong, but has come in some as one would expect during the past couple of days. Both my proprietary Technicals Model and the McClellan indicator are positive. SPX came within 4 points vs. its March 1st All Time High (in continuous 24-hour trading) earlier this week, and I see no reason that this mark will not be surpassed in the next week or two.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com). I also have a real-time version of my Technicals Model that you will be able to view during the trading day. However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

  35. Bud Fox says:

    I prefer the DJIA count “pattern” vs that of the SP500.
    I am sure, I have miss read the SP, some how. But, nevertheless.
    I like the look of the DJIA, best fro clarity at the moment.
    That said, my count places the DJIA in a W5 up…..

    • micky says:

      Thanks Bud, what is your target for W5?

      • Bud Fox says:

        Hello..Decided, to seek a new challenge. Locating and finding stock shares
        that are set to rise in a Bull market – starting under $10…ideally under $3.
        Let you know, how I do, in the coming weeks…..

        Just got tired of studying shares, that are over $40….more as this
        investment plan evolves…

      • Bud Fox says:

        Hi….Micky…I do not have one at the moment. I feel,
        NYSE equities are at a stage of being overpriced, in my view.
        In the last 4, I have been a net seller. Have not bought any
        shares in the last 3 months..And, while I did not see this coming, but
        a double price top in the SP – would have me getting concerned
        about the longer term SP trend. I am watching the NY AD line
        very closely these days http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/chartbook/466000296;

        Mr Caldaro is doing a great work for us, in his EW charts. I would,
        suggest watching Mr C’s work closely.
        Bud

  36. blackjak100 says:

    No matter how you want to count the wave from 2329, 2335 (triangle), it looks like a very high probability of a reversal (or failure at ATH) because you could count 5 waves up from both spots assuming 2401 is exceeded. The million dollar question as always is what kind of wave & retracement follows. In other words, is it all of minor 5, just i of minor 5, or B of minor 4?

    • blackjak100 says:

      based on the short term wave count using 2329 as the pivot and iv as yesterday’s low, v=i @ 2402.55 although it could overshoot and terminate near 2405ish. This would all change if wave iv travels a little lower Mon AM as v=i would not hold. A new target for v would need to be calculated using fibs from waves i & iii.

  37. Morning.In my completely unbiased opinion,the FAANG stocks look pretty vulnerable to a correction,Amazon did a 20 point reversal and closed on the lows.Apple has a weekly -div problem.Netflix has a daily -div. Facebook a weekly -div and extremely overbought,on thedaily..Google looks good technically,but way through the stratosphere with a gap to fill.
    I read,with interest,Stockcharts Erin Helm saying that “a bearish chart pattern on the SPX 100 just resolved itself to the UPSIDE.”
    What’s new?
    Don’t ALL bearish chart patterns resolve themselves to the upside now days?I’ve said that since Feb 2016.My question is why?The dollar won’t break down from a legitimate H&S(now working on a second right shoulder)with GDP near 0.Let’s see how the FAANG stocks work their way through what I just described above.
    As for the earnings,after Caterpillar’s explanation for their monster beat–and no questions from the financial press–I have my doubts about that side of it too.Other than that,I’d be bullish…lol.Good weekend all.Maybe gold has a NK test bump Sunday night?We’ll see.

      • torehund says:

        The red mda line makes an abc down, correction finished. Should correlate with Tbt which looks done correcting too, or ?

        • Old school breakdown to 95.I don’t believe that it will happen,but it should,measuring 103ish to 99. I think when it was just traders–actual people–this stuff worked better.Algos are programmed to buy bearish chart patterns I believe–with a gentle nudge from the CBs.Thanks for the ABC warning.What would it mean if that pattern didn’t work out?And why would it fail,if it does?What’s the alternative pattern.Thanks Tore.

          • torehund says:

            The wave in the middel could be an X – wave, then we could be working on a C- wave down to 96,40. A=C in length. Would fill the gap better, to clean out long overweigth if there is any. The Tbt count I posted friday would be a surprise to most thats why it may pan out and since there would be correlation usd tbt, why not take a chance on the dollar early ? Lets see🍇🍇🍇

  38. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. I think we’ll see gap fills this week before we continue the rally.

    Have a good weekend all.

  39. llerias7 says:

    Very hard to believe this is just Int.III of Major 1 of a P3 !! Do you know someone else that share this projection? I only read two articles (on the web) that talked about a “bubble phase” for stocks until 2019…Just like the nineties (90´s), right?

  40. Bud Fox says:

    Tony — Thank you, for your SP analysis…

Comments are closed.