SHORT TERM: quiet open and slight loss, DOW -21
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were flat overnight, and the market opened unchanged at SPX 2389. In the opening minutes the market dipped to SPX 2388, then rallied to 2398 by 11:30. Then after a pullback to SPX 2390 just before noon, the market rallied back to 2398 just before 1pm. The WH tax reform press conference, around 1pm: presented guide lines that appeared quite business friendly and low/middle income friendly, but not high income friendly. The market then pulled back to SPX 2386 in the lost hour, just before a 2387 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ lost o.05%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2385 and 2336 pivots, with resistance at the 2411 and 2428 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims and durable goods at 8:30, then pending home sales at 10am.
After a flat open the market rallied to within 3 points of the SPX 2401 all-time high. After a pullback, it rallied up to that SPX 2398 level again in the afternoon. Today’s clearing of the 2385 pivot range (+/- 7 pts.) was another positive, then the market pulled back to the 2385 pivot. Thus far we continue to count three waves up from SPX 2329: 2361-2345-2398. The next pullback and rally should determine if this is an impulse wave or an a-b-c. From what I’ve heard, most are expecting it to be an a-b-c. Any contrarians out there? Technically the market could rally to SPX 2450 (1.62 A) and it could still be a B wave, with a retest of the SPX 2320’s lows to follow. However, if it looks like an impulse wave probabilities suggest it is not a B wave, but a Minor 5 underway. Let’s see how it unfolds. Short term support is at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2369, with resistance at SPX 2401 and the 2411 pivot. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: getting close to confirming an uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend