Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +216

Overnight the first round of the France elections completed. Asian markets gained 1.0%. European markets opened higher and gained 3.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 2374 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2349 on Friday. By 10am the SPX hit 2375, then pulled back to 2369 by 11:30. After that the market worked its way higher, hitting SPX 2377 just past 3pm, then dipping to close at 2374.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.20%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude slid 40 cents, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller and the FHFA housing index at 9am, then new home sales and consumer confidence at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, immediately altering the short-term downtrend symmetry noted in the weekend update. With Europe having a big up day, in anticipation of Macron victory on May 7th, markets around the world rallied. With the SPX/DOW confirming downtrends, and the NDX/NAZ not, the current short term activity could move either way. The NDX/NAZ uptrend could continue to extend, forcing the SPX/DOW into an uptrend. Or Europe could reverse taking other indices down with it. Key levels to watch in the SPX are at 2378 and the 2385 pivot range on the upside, and 2345 on the downside. Whichever gives way first the market will likely continue in that direction. Short term support is at SPX 2345 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 and SPX 2401. Short term momentum ended the day with a slight negative divergence. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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216 Responses to Monday update

  1. blackjak100 says:

    Found the triangle on daily…todd Gordon who is not correct more times than I’d like…is going with it. The big big problem with this count is the ‘e wave’ is clearly not a ZZ (looks like 1 wave to me). Waves d & e are extremely rushed as well. HOWEVER, the count still suggests a reversal is very near as triangles precede last wave in an impulse. The difference is in the targets

    http://tradinganalysis.com/stocks-broke-out-should-you-chase-the-momentum/

    • STEPHEN BARTLETT says:

      I have seen many different shapes in wave e of a triangle. Often a smaller triangle. Is that allowed? Who cares. It’s common.

      • blackjak100 says:

        E waves can be a triangle but this clearly isn’t. E waves can virtually be any shape as long as it’s not 1 wave which this clearly is. In the end, it doesn’t matter because it does not count properly on the daily chart.

  2. phil1247 says:

    gary r

    upro and tbt targets hit

    who could ask for anything more?

    see ya!

  3. Dex T says:

    Retailers Brace for New York Real Estate Apocalypse

    “At the same time, retail store closings are happening at a breakneck pace across the US. Year-to-date retail store closings have already surpassed those of 2008 — with approximately 2,880 stores closed, up from 1,153 during the same period in 2016 — according to an April 2017 report from Credit Suisse, which estimates that there could be more than 8,640 closings in 2017. The historic peak — with data collected since 2000 — was 6,200 stores in 2008. Approximately 49 million square feet of retail has closed over the last year, with an estimated 147 million to close in the 2017 calendar year.

    To bring store productivity in line with historical averages, more than 10 percent — nearly a billion square feet — of retail space in the US will need to be closed, be converted into other things (such as restaurants or housing) or be made much cheaper to rent, according to a report by real estate information company CoStar.”

    https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/intelligence/retailers-brace-for-new-york-real-estate-apocalypse

    • Dex T says:

      Lots of great info.

      Sure enough NY commercial real estate was back in a bubble these past few years- way too many stores and way too much development

    • tommyboys says:

      Internet stream lining things. Lots of condos coming if any of this is true – we NEED housing badly… No apocalypse however and no drama for sure. Just a growing economy with appropriate growing pains.

      • Dex T says:

        you’re completely wrong! Did you bother to even read the article???? (obviously not)

        The U.S. needs housing only in certain areas. U.S. real estate market depends entirely on region.

        NY real estate is definitely in a bubble,

        • tommyboys says:

          uh oh – better sell now!

          • Dex T says:

            Too late for many firms. They overbuilt and will get foreclosed on by the bank. I already know of a few buildings who have been undergoing this process.

            If it continues to escalate depending on the projections and stats then more than a few banks will tank as well.

            As long as we don’t have to bail out any firms a la 2008 I’m fine with it.

  4. micky says:

    Since ES 2352ish I had no st sell signal, no real pb so far..

  5. H D says:

    Tony that DJI wins every time. Fooled us all. Will start my count on SPX from 4/20 low if SPX closes above 2385P range.

  6. Dex T says:

    Nordstrom offering pre-dirtied jeans for $425

    “For $425 Nordstrom will help you make people think you do all the dirty work for a living.

    The jeans, labeled Barracuda Straight Leg Jeans, are described on Nordstrom’s site as “Americana workwear that’s seen some hard-working action with a crackled, caked-on muddy coating that shows you’re not afraid to get down and dirty.”

    http://nbc4i.com/2017/04/25/nordstrom-offering-pre-dirtied-jeans-for-425/

  7. im going short right here. good luck all

  8. phil1247 says:

    DING!

    2389 target hit!

    • Gary Rodgers says:

      Phil, Had that as my secondary but didn’t want to wait so late in the day for it. Wrap it and pack it. Done – New day manana. Good trade! Btw, huge sell imbalance (so far) at 89 on the flow.

      • phil1247 says:

        thanks …..i am not holding overnite but i want to squeeze more out till 4

        thru 2389 could really put the hurt on shorts

  9. kingfrogcash says:

    Vix went green. Isn’t there a Korea event tonight?

  10. Jack Sparrow says:

    seems like we are forming the contracting ed for the wave that started yesterday so a point or two point to 2392 should do it and then selling so the question is is this the 3rd of 5th with fifth of fifth to come tomorrow with tax reform

  11. Vishal says:

    This extension long should finally complete its target 2420s ..

  12. chrisk44342 says:

    This is where Tony’s approach adds value. Conventional EW counters would look at the nesting at the beginning of the wave at 2328 and conclude that it must not be an impulse. Unfortunately, that type of pattern-based analysis has not proven to be very effective for some time now.

    • blackjak100 says:

      nesting aside…conventional EW counters simply look for alternation in a true impulse. Let’s not forget minor 2 took 10 weeks. Even if minor 4 ended at 2329, it took only 6 weeks. As a guideline, sideways corrections generally last as long and sometimes much longer. With a C wave still to come, I think minor 4 will last 9-12 weeks which means it will bottom in may.

      • ewmarkets says:

        Kudos to you for calling minor 4 from the very beginning with accurate calls for a of 4 bottom and b of 4 to 2390 area. Hope your call of c of 4 to come will also realize. I’m liquidating longs in anticipating for a lower entry.

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