Friday update

SHORT TERM: lower open pullback, DOW -31

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher then lower overnight, and the market opened 2 points below yesterday’s SPX 2356 close. After ticking up to unchanged in the opening minutes the market headed lower. At 10am existing home sales were reported higher: 5.71m v 5.48m. Just past 1pm the SPX hit 2345, then rallied to 2353 by 2:30. After that it pulled back to end the week at SPX 2349.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.05%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude dropped $1.15, Gold added $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 56.5% v 57.0%, and the Q1 GDP estimate was reported unchanged for the week at 0.5%.

The string of 4 straight gap openings was broken today, even though it was option expiration Friday. The market opened slightly lower and pulled back for most of the day. It is possible yesterday’s SPX 2361 high is one of significance. More on this in the weekend update. In the meantime, the NDX/NAZ continue to trade near all time highs, nothing significant on the downside yet. Still awaiting this sector to roll over before anticipating a downtrend low. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

28 Responses to Friday update

  1. phil1247 says:


    bearish below phfill PIVOT

    target 2303

  2. I have to relate the following: This week, I sent Ira Epstein a note,asking why he doesn’t highlight GDX or GLD anymore,on his PM videos on YouTube.I then forgot all about it.Today,not only did he personally send me a reply,but on today’s gold review,he actually mentioned the question and gave a response.Pretty classy stuff.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I have always found the most professional to be the most willing to help, and it does gladden the heart.
      I did laugh at your descriptive telling of the gold juniors saga, and the large cap exclamation.
      I had the same feeling yesterday. I was reading Fairfax’s SMH, where the article was telling of the build-up of Chinese troops on the border of NK,and then went on to suggest we were going to war with China, internment camp possibilities etc., but when I went to take a link, it was no longer there….same exclamation from me.

    • bud67 says:

      Great….and that’s Ira.

  3. captbara says:

    AAII bulls plunged to 25%, back to pre election lows. Looking good 👍

  4. Tony,

    Chinese growth is decelerating (fiscal and credit impulse) and this is starting to be reflected in iron ore and coking coal prices which will place quite a bit of pressure on the AUD and ASX 200, plus the aussie banks about 50% of the index will be soon forced to raise quite a bit of capital to meet new bank regulation that combined with new regulatory tightening measues for interest only investor home loans sets the Australia equity market & housing market up for a tough time ahead, I notice your All ords count has turned quite bullish, I can’t work out how we could have such a bullish count with how much house debt is in Australia 180% to GDP. I am thinking of going short the ASX 200. I am also a bit worried that China’s deceleration will impact global growth over the next 6 months and lead to more difficult sideways corrective counts for most equity equity markets. I think your long-term count for the S&P 500 is right just worried we are in for difficult few months. before we get to 3000.

    • hkloon says:

      Nice thought on aud… Yah also think aussie house prices are overvalued… Whats ur thoughts on nzd? Thx

      • NZD in the same boat Auckland housing has peaked auction clearance around 35 percent during peak selling season February and March plus glut of milk coming from Europe and US will bring down the milk price plus Chinese capital controls not helping tourism and housing demand. We will be in recession late 17.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Hi NZ,
      We updated the chart with a bit of hesitancy. I kept the old count chart … a first.
      Won’t take long to find out.

  5. Up Monday to 2370. that’s my thoughts. Election in France no biggie. Tax cuts and deal on health care is th carrot that juices the market. Have a nice weekend all

    • alexhartley1 says:

      You don’t think the election in France is a biggie? I can assure you if Le Pen and Melenchon make it through it will be bearish for the equity market (in the short term at least) and the euro for the medium to long term. If neither get through then 2370 I guess we’ll see. Maybe even if it’s just Le Pen.

      The health care bill is really a sideshow and hardly changes a thing though the tax bill obviously would. It could potentially act as a form of QE for the US (without being QE). I think the tax bill provides the impetus for the stock market following an August low. The question is from what level?!

  6. lunker1 says:

    Looking a 4 hour UPRO candles support was found today where it should. If it holds up we go. SPX and VIX back are back inside daily BBs the candle closes are holding as well.

  7. Thanks Tony and looking forward to the WE update to better understand your thinking on 2361. (cumulative up points in a corrective move up?) When the market put in the recent high of 2361, ES topped at 58.25 and left in its wake considerable horizontal structure which is begging for additional testing providing Sunday night and early AM Monday traders see things as I do. The interesting ES levels correspond to SPX cash in the 58/59 range which should offer decent resistance as both are distinguished by dailies beginning or starting at either level. Then, I should think, we see resolution.

  8. pooch77 says:

    NEWBIE NEWBIE we are going down next week but no more than 3% and probably 2%

  9. torehund says:

    Daily macd topped in Dec 2016, tantrum of ill temper until now. Look its now just sub-zero ready to put on index gains from the Go…..Enjoy weekend Mr Caldaros, and all of you that have come here to Learn.

  10. jhjoyner says:


  11. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al for a week of great OEW updates; good weekend to everyone.

  12. Thanks TC. Happy Friday.

Comments are closed.