SHORT TERM: 4th gap opening in a row, DOW +174
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.6% (mostly France). After the close yesterday FED vice chair Fischer gave another speech: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20170419a.htm. Overnight the SPX futures were higher. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 240k v 234k, and the Philly FED was reported lower: 24.0 v 32.8. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2346, then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2338 yesterday. At 10am the SPX hit 2341, and leading indicators were reported higher: 0.3% v 0.6%. The market then started to rally. With two small pullbacks along the way the SPX hit 2361 around 2pm. Then pulled back to close at SPX 2356.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.85%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am and it’s options expiration.
Today the market had a gap opening for the 4th day in a row. The last time this happened was in mid-September, during a complex correction, when the market had five gap openings in a row. The last gap opening then put in the SPX 2180 B wave high, and the correction resumed after that. No change in the short term count: Minute A 2322, Minute B 2379, Minute C underway. And no change on the expected downtrend support levels. What did change today was all the participation in the blog and forum. Which has been fairly quiet for some time. Apparently today’s rally was unexpected. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum moved from oversold to quite overbought today. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
See, Southern Ill. is getting some rain, more is on the way from
Big Mo….
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on and off since yesterday
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smile…No Precip in FL….
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rain is good for what grows in these parts
this is the rainy season
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It’s a desert here. Amazing, misdirection of weather patterns,
here.
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Rainy season, is on a “long vacation” here – 40 N Tampa
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Did you know. Forecasting the weather is more difficult than the NYSE Market. 🙂
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Paul Tudor Jones Says U.S. Stocks Should ‘Terrify’ Janet Yellen
“Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones has a message for Janet Yellen and investors: Be very afraid.
The legendary macro trader says that years of low interest rates have bloated stock valuations to a level not seen since 2000, right before the Nasdaq tumbled 75 percent over two-plus years. That measure — the value of the stock market relative to the size of the economy — should be “terrifying” to a central banker, Jones said earlier this month at a closed-door Goldman Sachs Asset Management conference, according to people who heard him.
Jones is voicing what many hedge fund and other money managers are privately warning investors: Stocks are trading at unsustainable levels. A few traders are more explicit, predicting a sizable market tumble by the end of the year.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-20/paul-tudor-jones-says-u-s-stocks-should-terrify-janet-yellen
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Looks like Paul Tudor Jones is very bearish on U.S. equities. Will he be proven right again?
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at some point in time/future. Tudor, can look back and likely say,
I was early”, in my timing call…IMO
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Bubbles are easy to identify, but not so easy to time the top
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Okay. Currently. I see the SP moving above, 2400 for a W3 high to visible. As to, “bubbles” are not easy to ident. Your the best at what you do. I default to your wisdom….
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Fairfax’s Watsa Warns Toronto Real Estate Bubble Will Burst
The Ontario government on Thursday announced a series of measures, including a tax on foreign buyers and expanded rent control, aimed at curbing the city’s soaring real estate prices. Home prices in the Toronto region rose 6.2 percent in March, the biggest one-month gain on record, according to a benchmark price index by the Canadian Real Estate Association, and jumped almost 30 percent in the past 12 months.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-20/fairfax-s-watsa-warns-toronto-real-estate-bubble-will-burst
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Don’t follow Canada but clearly the government feels a real estate bubble is in play.
Anyone have any insight into this?
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If this is true, then how can I short Toronto real estate? 🙂
Australia and Vancouver tried the same “tax on foreign buyers”, both markets are crashing as foreign money simply looks elsewhere. Vancouver buyers went to Toronto, now maybe they’ll move to Montreal – or outside of Canada all together.
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Short real estate companies on the Canadian exchanges
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Tax on Foreign Buyers? My way of thinking, that was
an unwise move. Or, if one wants lower prices, which
may evolve into a long term trend – then fine. RE usually
wants higher prices to prove a strong market, and thus buyers.
Hey…I am not RE expert, so it is only my view..
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Short the Canadian banks that not only hold all the mortgages but the energy sector debt as well….if oil is going down…
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Thanks Tony
With the LL in the DJI, it seems the pattern is incomplete.
Needs three up into the DT Line??
GL & Good Weekend All.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/SmyA6wXN/
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Yep, as soon as I posted that chart the Dow goes red. Never Fails! LMAO
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Maybe some more unexpected activity come Monday.
IWM ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/AItLXmiG/
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Tony, the S&P and Russell, and other sectors/stocks look very much like triangle patterns. Why ascribe the potential for a triangle in just the Dow which made a lower low on the daily chart this week? I am confused.
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the triangle make work out, but just not in that camp yet
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The DOW looks more like a bear wedge, it’s weaker than the SPX & RUT
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MOAR coming. Be prepared. 🙂
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Btk testing and retesting and retesting, hope soon she turns NORTH for good😭😱🤕
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Markets on edge of breaking down–Trump announces tax plan will be rolled out next week.Stocks saved.Film at 11.
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gary r
notice /es starting to crumble
and /zb still cannot break the short from highs?
not adding any more bond shorts till next week
see ya!
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Phil, Been watching that all AM. good call. have a great weekend!
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one other thing ..
pay attention to certain posts
someone pounded the table monday on long USLV…
that was my clue to double my position in ZSL
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I’m not short silver yet, but close
Bonds haven’t broken yet, I’m still looking for TLT $127 or higher. Below $123 would be bad. No position in bonds, waiting to go short….
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…you do good stuff MJT….think there is more to bonds than what we are seeing…inflation grossly overrated, maybe deflation at the beginning of next year…like your numbers. Have a nice weekend.x
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bearish below 124.27 TLT
until broken above …bond crash is live
a crash has to start from somewhere…….
this is EXACTLY what it looked like at TLT 143
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think there is more to bonds than what we are seeing…inflation grossly overrated, maybe deflation at the beginning of next year
Ms. Fiona, Personal fundamental analysis is just that personal. For a trader, emphasizing trader, it is a sentence to lose more often than not. There are people way smarter with way more info than I will ever have. FA will not tell you where the market will be an hour from now or a day from now. So why even look at it as a tool for trading. Look at EW, market profile, fibs, whatever you use etc etc Get your edge and take your money.
Example: the Wed selloff on the news of a tax reform delay was made by GS. The very next day Mnuchin (from GS) says tax reform is on the table for this year. 45 ES point swing. Coincidence? I didn’t get the info ahead of time but someone did. Hey, this is just my opinion for conversation sake and there is no disrespect intended so please don’t take it as such.
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No I was just musing…I play by what the numbers say, and take profits… am not ever stuck in belief if things change i.e. silver, my numbers changed on so have no position au moment. Thanks Gary.
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cl
49.21 target hit
if if doesnt go thru
… selling rest of sco and calling it a day
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i bought DWT with CL around $53 but only a small short position. it’s one of those i wish i had put more chips in.
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better than losing …eh?…
did you see my answer to your question?
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yes thanks. 37 key level
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