Thursday update

SHORT TERM: 4th gap opening in a row, DOW +174

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.6% (mostly France). After the close yesterday FED vice chair Fischer gave another speech: Overnight the SPX futures were higher. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 240k v 234k, and the Philly FED was reported lower: 24.0 v 32.8. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2346, then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2338 yesterday. At 10am the SPX hit 2341, and leading indicators were reported higher: 0.3% v 0.6%. The market then started to rally. With two small pullbacks along the way the SPX hit 2361 around 2pm. Then pulled back to close at SPX 2356.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.85%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: existing home sales at 10am and it’s options expiration.

Today the market had a gap opening for the 4th day in a row. The last time this happened was in mid-September, during a complex correction, when the market had five gap openings in a row. The last gap opening then put in the SPX 2180 B wave high, and the correction resumed after that. No change in the short term count: Minute A 2322, Minute B 2379, Minute C underway. And no change on the expected downtrend support levels. What did change today was all the participation in the blog and forum. Which has been fairly quiet for some time. Apparently today’s rally was unexpected. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum moved from oversold to quite overbought today. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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125 Responses to Thursday update

  1. bud67 says:

    See, Southern Ill. is getting some rain, more is on the way from
    Big Mo….

  2. Dex T says:

    Paul Tudor Jones Says U.S. Stocks Should ‘Terrify’ Janet Yellen

    “Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones has a message for Janet Yellen and investors: Be very afraid.

    The legendary macro trader says that years of low interest rates have bloated stock valuations to a level not seen since 2000, right before the Nasdaq tumbled 75 percent over two-plus years. That measure — the value of the stock market relative to the size of the economy — should be “terrifying” to a central banker, Jones said earlier this month at a closed-door Goldman Sachs Asset Management conference, according to people who heard him.

    Jones is voicing what many hedge fund and other money managers are privately warning investors: Stocks are trading at unsustainable levels. A few traders are more explicit, predicting a sizable market tumble by the end of the year.”

  3. Dex T says:

    Fairfax’s Watsa Warns Toronto Real Estate Bubble Will Burst

    The Ontario government on Thursday announced a series of measures, including a tax on foreign buyers and expanded rent control, aimed at curbing the city’s soaring real estate prices. Home prices in the Toronto region rose 6.2 percent in March, the biggest one-month gain on record, according to a benchmark price index by the Canadian Real Estate Association, and jumped almost 30 percent in the past 12 months.

    • Dex T says:

      Don’t follow Canada but clearly the government feels a real estate bubble is in play.

      Anyone have any insight into this?

      • mjtplayer says:

        If this is true, then how can I short Toronto real estate? 🙂

        Australia and Vancouver tried the same “tax on foreign buyers”, both markets are crashing as foreign money simply looks elsewhere. Vancouver buyers went to Toronto, now maybe they’ll move to Montreal – or outside of Canada all together.

        • Dex T says:

          Short real estate companies on the Canadian exchanges

        • bud67 says:

          Tax on Foreign Buyers? My way of thinking, that was
          an unwise move. Or, if one wants lower prices, which
          may evolve into a long term trend – then fine. RE usually
          wants higher prices to prove a strong market, and thus buyers.
          Hey…I am not RE expert, so it is only my view..

        • fionamargaret says:

          Short the Canadian banks that not only hold all the mortgages but the energy sector debt as well….if oil is going down…

  4. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    With the LL in the DJI, it seems the pattern is incomplete.
    Needs three up into the DT Line??
    GL & Good Weekend All.

  5. bfquant says:

    Tony, the S&P and Russell, and other sectors/stocks look very much like triangle patterns. Why ascribe the potential for a triangle in just the Dow which made a lower low on the daily chart this week? I am confused.

  6. Page says:

    MOAR coming. Be prepared. 🙂

  7. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Markets on edge of breaking down–Trump announces tax plan will be rolled out next week.Stocks saved.Film at 11.

  8. phil1247 says:

    gary r

    notice /es starting to crumble
    and /zb still cannot break the short from highs?

    not adding any more bond shorts till next week

    see ya!

    • Gary Rodgers says:

      Phil, Been watching that all AM. good call. have a great weekend!

      • phil1247 says:

        one other thing ..

        pay attention to certain posts
        someone pounded the table monday on long USLV…
        that was my clue to double my position in ZSL

        • mjtplayer says:

          I’m not short silver yet, but close

          Bonds haven’t broken yet, I’m still looking for TLT $127 or higher. Below $123 would be bad. No position in bonds, waiting to go short….

          • fionamargaret says:

            …you do good stuff MJT….think there is more to bonds than what we are seeing…inflation grossly overrated, maybe deflation at the beginning of next year…like your numbers. Have a nice weekend.x

          • phil1247 says:

            bearish below 124.27 TLT

            until broken above …bond crash is live

            a crash has to start from somewhere…….

            this is EXACTLY what it looked like at TLT 143

            • Gary Rodgers says:

              think there is more to bonds than what we are seeing…inflation grossly overrated, maybe deflation at the beginning of next year

              Ms. Fiona, Personal fundamental analysis is just that personal. For a trader, emphasizing trader, it is a sentence to lose more often than not. There are people way smarter with way more info than I will ever have. FA will not tell you where the market will be an hour from now or a day from now. So why even look at it as a tool for trading. Look at EW, market profile, fibs, whatever you use etc etc Get your edge and take your money.
              Example: the Wed selloff on the news of a tax reform delay was made by GS. The very next day Mnuchin (from GS) says tax reform is on the table for this year. 45 ES point swing. Coincidence? I didn’t get the info ahead of time but someone did. Hey, this is just my opinion for conversation sake and there is no disrespect intended so please don’t take it as such.

              • fionamargaret says:

                No I was just musing…I play by what the numbers say, and take profits… am not ever stuck in belief if things change i.e. silver, my numbers changed on so have no position au moment. Thanks Gary.

  9. phil1247 says:


    49.21 target hit

    if if doesnt go thru
    … selling rest of sco and calling it a day

  10. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

    • phil1247 says:


      remember……..he is correct once every seven years…
      he should be thankful for the 7 year cycle !
      lows in 2002 2009 2016
      2023 is the next time he will be correct

      i am not that great with EW
      but even i could see that he was biased negative after the 1987 crash
      when he was calling three wave declines from a peak
      a truncation 5 wave down .. not once or twice..
      but virtually every one ………

      • tony caldaro says:

        We were in contact leading up to 1987 and a few years after it.
        Long story, but that crash knocked him off balance.

        • phil1247 says:

          he made a terrific call for the runup into the 1987 peak and crash call

          but bias is a terrible thing

          i still have the hand written post cards he sent to me as answers to questions

          think they are worth anything ??

          • Gary Rodgers says:

            He did make a great real estate call when he moved to Gainesville, GA. When he went there it was a dot on the map. Now it’s thriving. I used to live about an hour or so away and pass through there often. Big growth.

    • pooch77 says:

      hmm 3000 SnP then

    • Gary Rodgers says:

      He references at the end he’s working on a computerized EW program. I remember Tom Joseph already did that back in the 80’s. I spoke to him when he first developed his software package and was using it then. Why has it taken RP all this time to start coming up with this idea?

    • purplember says:

      pretcher’s been calling for that since 1987

  11. phil1247 says:

    11:30 reversal period

    will it?

  12. H D says:

    Fotis- nice work on the oil short!
    El Matador- one of the best entries I’ve ever seen. Falling knife. Kudos on the CC.
    SPX still dancing with 23(55)
    Have a great weekend all.

  13. mjtplayer says:

    All eyes on the French election this weekend – will Le Pen make it into the finals?? The charts say yes.

    Will she win in a couple weeks? Too early to tell.

  14. phil1247 says:


    50.02 target hit !
    fotis 🙂

      • phil1247 says:

        took profits sco 38.38

        • rabbittrader1 says:

          WHY? SCO is going to $150 while crude oil falls to $26 per barrel. You will miss out on the rise in SCO if you keep ,up with your short term day trading. IMHO Rabbit

          • phil1247 says:

            just like tlt to 165?? at the peak?

            just like talk of spx 3000 .. at the peak??

            how do you KNOW it is going to 150??

            • rabbittrader1 says:

              Could be Psychic ability, could be experience, could be de je vue, could be that “been there -done that”, whatever I KNOW!. Rabbit

            • purplember says:

              phil aren’t you the one that said CL to $12 ??

              • fionamargaret says:

                Purple, could you help me because you do this stuff….Bloomberg says the US banks are in a bear market (FAZ)….is this correct?Thanks.

              • phil1247 says:

                on the /cl continuation chart
                while below 55..(which is the .50 level of ext short.)….
                target of extension short is 12

                while above 37(.which is the .618 support of.long from lows)
                target is 62

                thats why i am not committed to long or short side
                and trade it short term

  15. tommyboys says:

    Is RUT trading…(?)

  16. learnedmylesson25 says:

    They did it again.Dollar above 99.78.Bullish for DXY.Has to hold it of course.Later all.

  17. kvilia says:

    Learned, I’m looking at the resolution of the bear and bull flags here.

  18. NEWBIE says:

    Big down coming 20-30 points

  19. elmer510 says:

    Thanks Tony.

    My question today is – when Minor 2 was a zig zag, could Minor 4 be a flat? Or even a failed flat meaning this correction is finally done ?

    These minor corrections were rather long lasting – so I hope for a good jump upwards when the market is back on track again.

  20. nyjsec314 says:

    I’m pulling out of the rally at 2370

  21. opader says:

    The breadth and internal data were very bullish today. Both DJT and RUT outperformed other major indices. SGS ticked higher and closed slightly above its DTL. SPX penetrated its 50 D-SMA by around 0.25% and closed right on it.

    Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day. A close by SPX above its PDL-0 would be bullish enough for me to plan to do my first buy on Monday.

  22. learnedmylesson25 says:

    What a carrot these guys now have to stop a falling dollar/stock market
    “UHH,The tax cut is coming soon.”.
    “We’re getting close on a new healthcare plan.”
    “Definitely by the end of the year.”
    “It’s really moving along nicely.”
    More than one way to manipulate a market.Trump has found his.Btw,who knows if he REALLY wants a lower dollar,.Too low and it’s because of a lousy economy.Too high is not what they want either.A break of 99 or 98 is s
    going to be strictly prohibited.Goldilocks is what they prefer.
    I’ll be happy to be wrong.

    • torehund says:

      It would be interesting to see how the European indices have fared measured in Usd, since both the Euro and the Gbp has lost so much ground.

    • fionamargaret says:

      For more colour to this choice of composer and symphony, do read the interaction between Locan and myself yesterday evening.
      Bruckner studied music theory, strict counterpoint and harmony…maybe like EW…but then after meeting with Wagner to study symphonic form, he was influenced to break the rules of harmonic progression…like OEW…thus his symphonies were born.
      Now Locan and I were discussing suicidal music…and you know if you are looking for something……now, this may be sheer coincidence but the very last symphonies Bernstein and Karajan conducted were….Bruckner…..x

  23. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony, and if you all listen to the saw-tooth tune and then look at the longer range Rut there are certain similarities to say the least. Its certainly in tune with highest order world events.
    Just waiting for Fiona to show us an opera singer fragmenting a wine-glass 🙂
    Highest neurosis and apprehension.
    Here in Norway the beggars from Romania are the ones to blame in the news; to all that struggle get better and not bitter and if bitterness helps you please dont spread it around 🙂

    • fionamargaret says:

      Tore, you know I find this interesting, but it comes close to a nightmarish scenario I used to think about.
      We used to be given a few bars….sometimes almost as oblique as yours…and be expected to weave it into our own short composition…
      Night sweats…x

  24. Hi,thanks Tony
    Possible triangle for this 4th wave?

  25. learnedmylesson25 says:

    13d hasn’t made it over the 34 on the dollar index.Nudged it,turned down a little.Still a downtrend unless Munchkin comes out with some more optimistic talk so the market can get a boost on occasion. I guess Munchkin,Ryan or Wilbur has replaced Fed speeches for needed stock market juicing as needed.GDX could have made a heroic move today,but failed.We’ll see what the repercussions are tomorrow.I will not add more until the 10 and 20d are recaptured PLUS 1300 is also retaken on gold.Good luck all.

  26. mjtplayer says:

    Still expecting a drop to the SPX 2,300 area and below, but unless the SPY starts breaking down soon, odds are starting to increase that we’re in a triangle and not a bull flag. We shall see. OPEX tomorrow probably helping to hold-up the market in the near term.

  27. Thanks Tony. Whoever said 4’s are a tricky messes deserves an award. Anyway, the market appears to be retracing big picture Fib of 2322 to 2401. Yesterday high was within pennies of the 38.2% (52.3) level and today’s high was within the pennies of the 50% level of 61.6. Not surprised, but not fully expected. Next stop, if it can do it, would be the 61.8% level at 2371 after an expected pause. Have doubts because the 78.6% retracement from 2322 to 2378/79 is 2366 which is also likely the top of b of B. Issue? Also prior problems at 70 and likely trend line resistance. But, as I am sure you are aware, some are calling for an irregular C taking us close to 2401 but I will stick with your count until proven invalid. Interestingly, today’s close was just below the 50 DMA. And earlier in the week, I closed my long bond trade when ten year rates approached my target of 2.15%.

  28. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $DJIA at

  29. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Decision time, not just in France..

  30. Thanks Tony. Happy Thurs.

  31. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. When are the rallys not expected by most on this blog? There does tend to be a bearish bias around here.

  32. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Always expect the unexpected in this market. 😉

  33. Tarun Varma says:

    Tony, in regards to this statement “No change in the short term count: Minute A 2322, Minute B 2379, Minute C underway.”, current advance cannot exceed what level (minute B high of 2379? Or something lower/higher than 2379?) for this A-B-C count to hold?

  34. Thanks Tony, I expected 2351 area to hold, so I was wrong and surprised. shorted 2360 area again after being stopped out at 2352. see what tomorrow brings. hoping that trend line at 2362 ish holds.

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