Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold, DOW -119

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher but ended mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up to SPX 2352 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2342 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX pulled back to 2347, then made a slightly higher high at 2353 by 10am. After that it started to pullback. At 2pm the FED: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beige-book-default.htm. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 2335, then bounced to close at 2338.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude dropped $1.90, Gold slid $11, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims and the Philly FED at 8:30, then leading indicators at 10am.

The market had another gap opening today, for the third day in a row. Monday’s gap up was bought, Tuesday gap down was bought, but today’s gap up was sold. Rebound from SPX 2329 over? While three of the four major indices have enjoyed a rebound this week, the DOW has already dropped below last week’s low and its March low (SPX 2322 equivalent). Earnings disappointments in GS and IBM have contributed to the decline. The choppy activity, which has been with us since early March continues, as Minute wave C unfolds. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought early then declined throughout the day and ended oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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143 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. phil1247 says:

    /cl
    looks like new lows coming
    and 50.41 target will be hit

  2. fotis2 says:

    Go short young man go short pop and drop go all in guys you can do it!!

  3. Dex T says:

    Newest Silicon Valley perk: Paid time off to protest Trump

    “Silicon Valley firms have long been known for offering a litany of employee perks: fresh-cooked lunches, free massages, climbing walls and dog-friendly offices.

    Now some are adding yet another incentive to attract and retain workers: paid time off to protest.”

    http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-trump-protest-perk-20170419-story.html

    • Dex T says:

      I wonder how this shows up on the company financial statements?… Minimal revenue, no profitability or cash flow…

      I’m going to take a really “wild” guess and say that none of these companies are going to be around very long.

  4. blackjak100 says:

    2365 today???? when I said short lived ralleye to 2365, I did not expect it to happen in 1 day. Thought it would take 2.

  5. Dex T says:

    Rents Are Falling in New York and Silicon Valley

    “In some cities, like Chicago and Houston, rents actually fell over the prior 12 months. And in the Bay Area of California—the most expensive rental market in the country—rapid rent hikes have stalled. Rents fell 1.1% in San Jose over last year, after rising nearly 9% a year earlier. In San Francisco, rents had risen almost 10% from March 2015 to March 2016, but then flatlined. As of last month, the median rent in San Francisco was $3,352. Rents fell 1.3% in New York over the prior 12 months with a median of $2,386”

    http://fortune.com/2017/04/20/rents-new-york-silicon-valley/

    • tommyboys says:

      Housing went parabolic and unsustainable. Will correct to a more sustainable level for sure. Bullish for those priced out.

      • Dex T says:

        The question is how many banks, real estate firms, venture capital funds, etc… are going to be hit from this decline and how badly it’s going to affect the broader economy.

        I just hope that nobody is going to get bailed out this time around.

        • tommyboys says:

          Nah… that was ’08/’09 due to a very stupid congressional rule of marking to market.That’s DONE and rule has been appealed. This ain’t ’08 even though we all still feel the world is gonna end tomorrow. Just a normal supply/demand correction to occur. Too many worry too much – muscle memory is what we all suffer from. Healthy correction in route.

  6. tommyboys says:

    A/D strong at almost 4/1 positive on NAZ and almost 3/1 NYSE…

  7. phil1247 says:

    gary r

    are you watching /zb?

    ext long ………….failed
    last traditional long ………….failed
    tick tock clairesse……
    want some fava beans with that liver and a nice keyyannnteee?

  8. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Approaching Pivot Test/Fail Zone @ DT Line
    GL All

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/tdux7LAS/

  9. bud67 says:

    Now, not feeling so sad for O’Reilly…..ten’s of millions to be paid out.
    not crying for him….nope

  10. captbara says:

    Nice bear trap. USDJPY and Nikkei foretold the bounce.

      • captbara says:

        Scary. But ultimately war will be bullish. Just keep it non-nuclear and we’ll be fine 🙂

        • alexhartley1 says:

          Well as long as we’re sure it remains non-nuclear with an unhinged, murdering sociopath in charge …… !!!!!! Seriously 1 nuke in a suitcase is all it takes. If the US does start bombing they better make sure they get him early. No one knows what could happen…… Bombing nuclear installations in N. Korea is one thing. If/when N. Korean artillery (not all of which can reach Seoul I’ll admit) starts landing on the S. Korean capital killing yet more innocents it will be quite another. And then seeing as they actually have nukes now it would only take 1 nuke in a suitcase to make the world and the stock market a completely different place to be. I don’t think this happens but ….. Personally think people are currently underestimating Melenchon and Le Pen being in the French finale in May. That happens and the Eur/Usd will be at parity and the market will drop 200+ points. Right now I simply see so little upside and on the downside one could easily see 10-20%. Perhaps that is the wall of worry. But there are better times to be bullish in my opinion.

    • phil1247 says:

      dollar looks ready to rally

      but will it be the last dance for donna summer ????

  11. Rumors of Freedom Caucus getting enough votes to pass a new healthcare plan.Algos love hearing that phil.

    • tony caldaro says:

      heard 25-30 votes … yes
      think there are 30 members

      • purplember says:

        i think there needs to be compromise with all parties (give & take). A bill that all can accept but not necessarily love. Any bill that comes strictly from 1 party is generally bad for americans.

        Those that think Obamacare is fine and want to continue with it are completely CLUELESS. it will die on it’s own and is bad for americans (except those that want free stuff)

    • phil1247 says:

      news??? …………. really???
      you are talking to the wrong person

  12. NEWBIE says:

    $VIX is holding strong for such an up day= more downside coming for markets

  13. Another bizarre day.Russell and Nasdaq have jumped the 20d sma.GDX tried to get above both the 10(23.85)and 20 d(23.63) EMA,which would have been bullish.Made the 10d and got up to 23.80 but not above it.Then sold under 23.63.A failure here would be bearish.Question:Is all this SPX movement OPEX machinations?

  14. EL MATADOR says:

    SPX: this pattern is starting to creep to the forefront; from 2401
    2322 wave A
    wave B forming triangle (in wave c) killing time into French bread elections
    wave C flusher yet to come in May…..just a thought

  15. vivelaamo says:

    Rut could break the downwards trend line. Need a strong close.

  16. bud67 says:

    Short Term: the SP500 looks pretty Bullish…holding long…

  17. EL MATADOR says:

    long CC (futures cocoa) from (1780)….IMO we should see a significant low near today’s low (1756)

  18. Page says:

    if you are short in Oil run as fast as you can …

  19. phil1247 says:

    as discussed

    silver and GDX plunge in progress
    gold is probably going to do better
    same diagnosis
    … 2000 dolllar gold
    miners can still go bankrupt

  20. phil1247 says:

    /clm7

    face ripper squeeeeeeeeeeeeeze possible above 51.33

  21. phil1247 says:

    bond crash in progress until proven otherwise

    added TBT

    • phil1247 says:

      german bunds look to be in 3 of 3 down

      bond crash will be obvious in europe before it is here

    • ariez5 says:

      Phil, if your idea of a “crash” is a move in TLT of a dollar or two, perhaps. But yields broke a 20-week double top formation last week and closed on the lows on Tuesday. Sentiment on bonds is still negative. The intermediate term direction of bonds is UP, and I am buying those bonds you are selling.

  22. tommyboys says:

    Bearishness up a smidge, bullishness down a smidge. Looking close to a market low soon…
    http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

  23. ariez5 says:

    I could be terribly wrong, and anything could happen after this weekend, but I just have the feeling everyone is looking for a bounce. Which is what happens in a correction until enough people get spooked that it won’t happen.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I have oil going to 41, not all today, but think the market has unfinished business around 2300…..so am short…

    • ariez5 says:

      So far this morning the Dow has backtested the descending triangle that it broke yesterday. And it did not rocket back through it. Still looks down to me.

  24. blackjak100 says:

    It would not shock me to rally towards 2360-2365 before heading below 2322. Why? There are very oversold metrics which should cause a bounce first.

  25. Trend: Bullish Sideways

    Resistance levels: R1 1284.02, R2 1295.80, R3 1310.81

    Support levels : S1 1271.15, S2 1264.28, S3 1256.64

    Comment: Gold remains bullish despite yesterday’s minor down correction. Staying above S1 sustains bullish forces and calls for additional rallies and a penetration for R2 level will dilate further gains towards R3. The other scenario, longing below S1 level will increase selloffs with congestion and wash towards S2&S3. A close below S3 calls for trend reversal and market to consider gold bearish. Keep an eye on U.S Index levels and French elections this Sunday with end results will have an impact on Gold.
    —Invest.com (FX grow)
    Lml25:Seems reasonable.Good luck all.

  26. magnus1234 says:

    (posted it on the wrong day…here it is again)
    DAX30: The index just completed an A wave of a 4th. Now in the B driven by easing fears of Marine Le Pen. Election in France on Sunday were at least 4 candidates have the chance to get through to the second stage. Under all circumstance Le Pen will lose the second ballot at 7th of May where the C will probably be set.

    DAX30 Daily: http://www.screencast.com/t/5M1QZaM5T
    DAX30 4h: http://www.screencast.com/t/DcWnaej5gDx
    DAX30 1h: http://www.screencast.com/t/FjUIGHjoqeyw

  27. bud67 says:

    Assuming we hold the 2322.25 low. The SP500, should
    continue the price advance, to new highs.Coming off the
    Jun/Jul 1991 low, am counting as a W2 Low….Thus, above 2370.
    Implies a new price high and an, extending upward trend.

  28. vivelaamo says:

    Crude buy the dips?

  29. stormchaser80llc says:

    My proposed wave 2 lower has extended in time with Tuesday’s low just being the A wave. Today we completed what I believe are the B and C waves to end Wave 2. This would be bullish for the market. Supporting this, small and mid caps had a relatively good day today with their internals also improving greatly. Also, my proprietary Technicals Model finished higher, right at the cusp of going positive. I showed a strong positive divergence vs. SPX compared to the late March lows, very bullish for the market ahead. HYG:IEF did not make a new low today, instead gapping up before falling intraday. VIX though is something to watch closely as a reversal higher would doom my bullish predictions.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com). However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

    On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback on pros and cons!!

  30. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-19/real-message-gdxj-mess
    There’s something happening with these gold ETFs.Totally artificial and nothing like I’ve heard with any other funds.Anyways,I got this from ZH.One of the comments was hilariously true.I’ll post it below.

    • Al Huxley Apr 19, 2017 6:59 PM
      This just kills me – ‘We’ve had so much demand for GDXJ that we’re going to have to divest of some of our holdings. So naturally, all this demand for junior gold stocks is causing them to crash’. Am I the only who feels like he’s taking crazy pills here? WTF?

  31. 123 abc says:

    Tony, just for educational purposes…

    In regards to the NYA index; the first chart below is the OEW count, and the second chart displays my modifications. Specifically, I’ve amended…

    a) the internals of Primary-iii (although the bigger picture remains unchanged), and;
    b) re-labelled Trump rally as Minor-1 instead of Intermediate-iii wave.

    Are my modifications acceptable as an alternate count under OEW theory?


  32. opader says:


    The breadth and internal data were bullish for NASDAQ but no so much for NYSE. SGS ticked slightly higher and panic selling was bought.

    I think chances are good that the sell-off since SPX 2400 has run its course.

  33. fionamargaret says:

    No Kimble tonight….but Super Charts of the Week from Raymond James..
    https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=5d13e500-f27d-4e65-bf16-6c6c7b3ddec4&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks to Tony,….and everyone xx

    • fionamargaret says:

      Now Prokofiev is a different composer, totally loved by most Russians. He is deep, brooding, suicidal..considered dynamite for your mind..and yes, a favourite composer of Valery Gergiev….
      The pianist Aleksander Toradze suggests…”Don’t forget to pray to God before each performance and don’t forget to give your soul enough air. Believe in the right purpose of art , and believe in being human “….x

      • Another one of my favorites. Thanks, Fiona!

      • Suicidal..? No, house cleaning for the mind! – Suicidal: Bruckner, Mahler. In fact I had two fellow students in college commit suicide after listening to them.

        • fionamargaret says:

          …and here I was leaving a different Mahler Symphony every Friday…..I haven’t listened to Bruckner for ages…let’s do that….
          Of course we both know music just expands on the feelings you already have deep in your head and heart, maybe long hidden and forgotten about…..
          Locan I am so glad you come around……xx

  34. bud67 says:

    In my view…the SP500 has one more, new price low, before
    any sustained advance can form…..imo

  35. ariez5 says:

    Tony (or other Elliott Wavers), if wave 2 and wave 4 are supposed to alternate in structure, how is it that the structure of the SPX/Dow looks so similar to the structure from August 15-Nov 1/2? I see a zigzag, not a triangle or flat.

    • blackjak100 says:

      You are exactly right! This why I’ve been looking for a flat all along. In other words, we are in b of B of minor 4. Look at time comparisons between minor 2 & 4, minor 4 could last another 2 months and still be in good proportion with minor 2. I think we are closer to a ralleye than most think. Look for b of B to slightly break 2322 since DOW already broke its mar low today.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Just to clarify, on the verge of a short lived ralleye. c of B could easily ralleye from 2310 to 2400 (must get to 2393 min for a flat) in 5-7 days before reversing course towards 2300.

    • tony caldaro says:

      In recent years there has not been much alternation.
      However, both previous corrections were three trends.
      If this one is only one, that’s alternation.

  36. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #RUT at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  37. Ajay Singhi says:

    SPX buy call at 2338 and 2331 is still a hold for the target of 2390 within this month. A monster rally will commence soon.

    ABC of 1st wave from 2328 finished today with an expanded flat.

    • aahmichael says:

      As I posted to someone else yesterday, it’s impossible to count Monday’s rally as a wave 1, because it didn’t subdivide by 5. That rally was an ABC. Further proof of that came today, as the DOW not only took out the SPX equivalent of 2328, but it also took out the SPX equivalent of 2322.

      • Michael:
        Thanks. Now we have to,see if this bull can overcome DJIA weakness.

      • Ajay Singhi says:

        Michael,

        The move from 2401 is an expanding triangle. I don’t remember the exact numbers but roughly the counts are as follows:

        A) 2401- 2352
        B) 2352- 2390
        C) 2390- 2322
        D) A: 2322- 2376(there was an exanded flat followed by an ending diagonal in the 5th which finally finished at 2328.
        B: ongoing, should go above 2390 but not above 2401
        E) Down below 2300 to come through in May.

        Regarding the move from 2328:
        C1. 2328- 2336
        C2. 2336- 2332
        C3. 2332- 2345
        C4. 2345- 2341
        C5. 2341- 2348

        C3 does look weird, when looked at in isolation, but it does follow the other rules of Wave 3, i.e. extension of C1, time taken wrt C1 and C4 did 23.6% of C3.

        If you look at the gap down that happened the following day, the morning low was a of A, followed by b of A which did an 80% retracement and then the final c of A.

        The following day, B wave went above the high of 2348 and final C down touched 2334 yesterday.

        I have tried to analyze Dow, but found it to be very difficult. Looking at the overall pattern, it also seems to be in some sort of triangle. As I dont track Dow so closely, I can’t comment on its structure.

        I am expecting SPX to touch 2366 by friday, followed by another correction till 2350 on Monday.

  38. Thanks Tony. Happy Wed.

  39. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p14920093426&a=351737026&r=1492553996132&r=1492554040305
    Couple charts.Stockcharts.com predicting a dollar breakdown.Gold needs to build up a head of steam to break through 1300.

  40. Appears to be in a nice channel. Perfect for day traders, up 15 short it, down 15, go long. Today was 3 up to finish wave 2. 5 waves down for 3 3 up form4 5 down for 5. That’s 13 moves up and down, to get to 2370. A lot of moves for 65 points. Chop chop. Today could of been 1 of 5 down. If up 10 tomorrow, short it. 5 down to 2300 bounce 2320 then 5 more down to 2370. Then we can head higher. 2 more weeks of this

  41. pooch77 says:

    Up into Friday then i will hold my nose

    • mjtplayer says:

      Good luck with that – SPY daily candle printed a “dark cloud cover”

      It could rally and negate, or it could just keep falling. One thing is clear in the SPY, it’s a 3 wave rally off Thursday’s low…

  42. “When we turn to the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE:GDX), the most bullish interpretation has us in wave 3 of (iii) of (3) of wave 1 of iii, as shown on the daily chart. When we turn to the 8-minute chart, you will see that the market is now approaching a confluence of 1.00 extensions in the 25 region. What this means is that as long as the GDX holds the 24 level on any pullbacks right now (.618 extentions), we can maintain a strong bullish bias in the GDX, which is pointing up towards the August highs in the current set up. Alternatively, if the market breaks below 24 in an impulsive manner, then we have to keep an open mind about the potential for the yellow count to take hold, as we have been watching for several weeks right now. So, GDX is truly at a critical point in this uptrend.”
    —-Avi…BEFORE todays 3% downturn.
    (He wants this to be a 3 of 3 so bad,but it’s just not happening yet.)

    • phil1247 says:

      as discussed………

      december low in GDX may need testing
      ..if it doesnt hold 15.40 target gets hit

      silver collapse to 14 will probably grease the skids

      • mjtplayer says:

        Agree Phil, miners and silver are acting horrible and grossly under-performing gold – bad sign for the yellow metal. With gold topping out here in April, it could be down into mid-late June. We’ll see what happens, but pretty happy holding GDX short thus far…

        SLV looking more like a double-top at $17.53 & $17.59 each day that goes by. I’m not short silver, yet…

        GDX: uptrend broken, period.

        https://www.tradingview.com/x/PHu3dKXy/

      • Tarun Varma says:

        Do you guys see the symmetry in price behavior (and time) of GDX between 2H14-2H15 vs 2H16-now! Its identical!! And confirms Phil1247’s comment regarding whats coming for it. If I knew how to post a image I would be happy to share….

        • Save your chart in your computer – go to http://www.imgur.com (etc.) – “Browse” there – click on your file to “Post” there – “Copy” address of your post there – post copied address [Shift – Insert] along with your comment in Tony’s site.

          • Tarun Varma says:

            thank you! Here you all go: http://imgur.com/mZQAT5F

            Similarities in the two black boxes?
            – Exact same size (both price range and time are equivalent)
            – Blue dotted lines: not oversold per RSI5 after 1st rejection around 50WMA
            – Red dotted lines: not overbought per RSI5 after 2nd rejection at 50WMA

            History doesn’t repeat but rhymes. See what happens after first box?

            • Looks like you could have drawn ANOTHER box to the right of the first one(at the 2016 bottom).Not only that,the moving averages are aligned bearishly back then.Good eye on the fractal though.

    • Page says:

      learn…. I have super-extra-extension-long in miners.

      • Probably one day to repair the damage(tomorrow).Then you’ll have to go to triple super extra-extension longs,going back to a 2003 chart…lol.Good luck Page.GDX should be acting better,no doubt.

  43. Dex T says:

    Tony,

    Anyone can dress like a celebrity these days…

    “Male celebs are spending $900 on hideous pre-ripped jeans”

    http://nypost.com/2016/06/14/male-celebs-are-spending-900-on-hideous-pre-ripped-jeans/

    • tony caldaro says:

      have a few pair like that, worn out $30 jeans with holes
      use them only to paint and clean
      next fad? painted worn out jeans 😉

      • purplember says:

        tony you should sell them for $900

        • torehund says:

          In the 1970s my family went to vaccation in USSR, and for fun we bought jeans with wide-wide legs, entrance was slimmer than where the legs ended for 10 nok (1,1usd) a pair. We sold them for 250 nok a piece in Moscow. Even more fun returning home, my father misser one of HIS jogging shoes, and reported it stolen. The insurance company found the narrative to be a bit mystic and asked my father how someone could steal just one shoe, upon my father replied, well it could be a person with just one foot👞

  44. pooch77 says:

    no earnings????

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