Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -114

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.7%. US index futures were lower overnight. Yesterday, after the close, there was a FED speech: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20170417a.htm. At 8:30 this morning housing starts were reported lower: 1215k v 1288k, and building permits were reported higher: 1260k v 1213k. Then at 9:15 industrial production was reported higher: 0.5% v 0.0%, and capacity utilization was reported higher: 76.1% v 75.9%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2339, then reversed. The market had closed at SPX 2349 yesterday. By 10am the SPX had rallied back to 2348, but then headed even lower. Around noon the SPX hit 2335. Then after a rally to SPX 2345 by 2:30 the market closed at 2342.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.10%. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: the FED’s beige book at 2pm.

The market reversed yesterday’s gap up opening with a gap down opening today. The market is acting like a correction. The gap down opening was bought, the market nearly closed the gap, then headed even lower. Lots of volatility in just the first two days of the week. As noted over the weekend, and yesterday, we are expecting this Minute C wave to break the recent SPX 2329 low, the 2322 low, and possibly find support around SPX 2299. Also, still waiting for some downside action in the Tech sector before this correction concludes. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum dropped below neutral this morning but moved just above neutral in the afternoon. Swarm at 5pm. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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116 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. magnus1234 says:

    DAX30: The index just completed an A wave of a 4th. Now in the B driven by easing fears of Marine Le Pen. Election in France on Sunday were at least 4 candidates have the chance to get through to the second stage. Under all circumstance Le Pen will lose the second ballot at 7th of May where the C will probably be set.

    DAX30 Daily: http://www.screencast.com/t/5M1QZaM5T
    DAX30 4h: http://www.screencast.com/t/DcWnaej5gDx
    DAX30 1h: http://www.screencast.com/t/FjUIGHjoqeyw

  2. torehund says:

    Yupp, stock dogs popping, doesnt look like a one day Wonder for the Rut this time😜🤑😜

    • fionamargaret says:

      I think George with his QQQ’s and Vive with his TNA were the winners today, Tore.
      Maybe you too….x

  3. Gary Rodgers says:

    Hey Phil,

    My short triggered but would like to see the smaller mm fail completely for more confidence. Very whipsaw trading right now.

    • phil1247 says:

      i try to stay away from 4th wave chop
      i have only made a handful of trades on spx since 2400 peak

      great action on /cl today

      extensions of extensions …………quick profits
      but when we had 3rd extension had to go back in and chase
      was worth it tho … /cl fell another dollar
      after i was chased back into sco
      50 .50 was perfect 1.618 first wave down
      so i didnt hang around when it got near there

      bonds in no mans land between ext short and ext long

  4. EL MATADOR says:

    Newbie this one is for you 😉

  5. Dex T says:

    Silicon Valley’s $400 Juicer May Be Feeling the Squeeze

    One of the most lavishly funded gadget startups in Silicon Valley last year was Juicero Inc. It makes a juice machine.

    “Google’s venture capital arm and other backers poured about $120 million into the startup. Juicero sells the machine for $400, plus the cost of individual juice packs delivered weekly.”

    But after the product hit the market, some investors were surprised to discover a much cheaper alternative: You can squeeze the Juicero bags with your bare hands. Two backers said the final device was bulkier than what was originally pitched and that they were puzzled to find that customers could achieve similar results without it.


    • Dex T says:

      Another silicon valley “tech” firm imploding

      This juice machine looks like the kind of junk being sold on late night shopping channels for $9.99 the past 20+ years !!

      Hilarious that even Google managed to be conned into investing so much money.

      • Dex T says:

        One woman “Kippy Williams” apparently paid over $1200 for this magic juice machine

        I guess silicon valley has been oblivious to the concept of fresh juice.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Reminds me of the 1970’s, when a company bought worn out jeans with holes in them, washed them in a little bleach, and sold them as designer jeans for $100s, when a brand new pair cost $15.

    • fotis2 says:

      Well at least now they in the juice bag business

    • fotis2 says:

      On the flip side for the same amount of money one could plant a fruit orchard and never have to buy fruit again for his family for generations to come no wonder they call us sheeple…

  6. avkanoi says:

    I could be wrong… but I think today is final short term bottom…. target 2375 / 2400+

  7. gary61b says:

    ES 2336.75 is it for this triangle A,B,c or is an D,E yet to come?

  8. purplember says:

    wow Oil is in free fall and hardly any comments. unfortunately i only took a small short position but guessing others will post how they bet the farm on DWT

    • mjtplayer says:

      Watch XOM. The potential rounded bottom had just broke – Custard’s last Stand at $80.31

      A break below $80.31 and the psychological $80 level sets up $72

    • alexhartley1 says:

      I’d point out that Fiona suggested a few days or even at least a week ago that oil may fall from around the 52 ish mark to around 47 in line with a falling market. I think we’re likely to get the continuation of the S&P’s downtrend over the next week or two so I’d stick with her target for now. Hopefully she bet the farm.

  9. mjtplayer says:

    Standing by my call from Monday, that was the high tick in gold and it’s down from here. Gold is hanging tough for now, but the miners and silver are both breaking down and leading the way – as they usually do. The 6 week uptrend in GDX just broke and while gold itself has held steady intra-day the miners are melting down on heavy volume.

    Below $21.14 in GDX sets up a test of the Dec lows

    Gold is toast

    • Heard that once or twice before.These markets are so warped right now that anything could happen to any one of them and I wouldn’t be shocked.GDX could do a fake breakdown like 2 times ago–when it broke the 10 and 20 d–or it could freefall.VIX could rally back up to 16 since it held 13.56.S&P following that and oil
      As John Belushi said in “Animal House”–FOOD FIGHT!!!”

      • Page says:

        Learn… I have extra-extended-long in miners 😀

        • Like I said before,very screwy stuff going on…again.Until 13 dies a bearish cross of the 34,I won’t get bearish.I lightened up a little as I always do when the 20d gets violated.Just a reflex.See where this winds up.

          • fotis2 says:

            There has always been funny business going on with gold over the years strange spikes out of nowhere,non conformity to basic TA etc etc

  10. A total mess out there today.VIX didn’t crater at 13.57.Oil cratered though and so did GDX…and SPX.DXY refuses to die,though GDP stayed at .5 yesterday.No update on that for 9 more days.The last couple weeks have not been normal on most days.Probably better off in cash,the way these asset classes are trading.See how they finish.Later.

  11. H D says:

    Some of those 10 at 10AM folks caught 10 HanDles down and hasta manana. Whipsaw Wednesday

  12. H D says:

    Here’s the CL chart I shared a while ago. 5:5 in the sell zone now. Looks like the terminal pattern confirmed and should trade $50 in 1/2 time.

  13. vivelaamo says:

    Phil Russell extension longs been trading today. I don’t you don’t trade it but it moves more than the larger indices.

  14. phil1247 says:

    gary r

    no more bond buying

    only looking for shorts now
    bear below 155.01..
    . ? start of bond crash?

  15. phil1247 says:

    52.28 is next target …. 🙂

  16. GDX drops below 10d EMA.20 d at 23.66 or .15 away.We’ve gone through this drill before.The first warning with the 10d breaking is sounded.Lots of crosscurrents out there.GDX just embedded yesterday,which should have been bullish.We’ll see how this plays out.Gold closing under 1284 was declared a bull trap by Ira Epstein.S&P VIX at 13.79 last I saw.A little more room to the downside to hit the 18d.Good luck all.

    • If the VIX is turning into a bullish trade,it must hold at 13.57 or .12 away.Dropping below will mean the next level is 12 and change and the correction may be over.Just sit and watch for a reversal or not.

  17. bud67 says:

    I have turned into a Bear, looking at the future.
    Thus, SDS…below 13.06 would appeal to me.

  18. phil1247 says:

    /es in extension longs

    /zb in extension shorts

    my…. how fast things change around here

  19. phil1247 says:

    TLT/ /ZB

    bonds set up for possible implosion
    ext long failed
    traditional long under pressure………failure could get downside moving

    • Gary Rodgers says:

      Hey Phil, Still hanging on the sidelines on this one?

      • phil1247 says:

        for the moment ..yes
        critical time and price here
        crash wave in bonds has to start somewhere ..
        if this is the top of 2
        ..it would catch everyone bulled up with their pants down

        • phil1247 says:

          i am using a more aggressive ext long than DH
          he has the failure level at /zb 154.01
          i just dont want to get caught when the tide turns
          today is center date for bond cycle high…………lets see

          • Gary Rodgers says:

            Yeah, I find myself adjusting levels that don’t necessarily match his all the time. I had a short on the 15min from the 155 1/2 to 155 that triggered to ‘154’28. May not be “right” but it worked. lol

    • fionamargaret says:

      Long TMF, UGLD, USLV…..

  20. alexhartley1 says:

    Morning Tony, The small black c? on the cable chart indicates that we’re now likely in an ‘x’ wave that may have already seen it’s top with the spike yesterday or the potential end of the long term downtrend in sterling (and therefore a Primary bottom)? Thanks in advance.

    To me it seems like we’re at an inflection point with the USD. I’d certainly prefer not to see a close below 98.67 on the DXY. However given that we’re oversold on the USD daily and the opposite on the Euro, Cable and Jpy I still favour upside on the USD going forward into 2018 (same with gold in fact). This is Raoul Pal’s favoured view as well whose views I also respect.

    Final ques. If the equity market comes off further do you envisage lower lows for USD/JPY in contrast perhaps to a lower EUR/USD or all pairs should move the same.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Hi Alex,
      At this point not sure about an X wave, maybe a low is in for the GBP.
      Time is running out for the down cycle and currencies are stuck in a range.
      Yen rally makes sense short term as markets pull back

      • alexhartley1 says:

        Ok Tony thanks. If the cycle is running out of time though what does that mean for Eur/Usd?

        • tony caldaro says:

          it also has a Major C
          same possibility
          if Mario raises rates that could be the signal

          • alexhartley1 says:

            Hmmm….. I guess. It would be most disappointing. When roughly should this cycle end?What is the standard annual dollar cycle? Phil mentioned the cycle should end soon. Thanks for your answers Tony.

            • tony caldaro says:

              We turned bullish on the USD in 2011. Been bullish ever since.
              The cycle should top in either 2017 or 2018.
              The advance so far has been less than expected, i.e. DXY 120.
              In fact, this is the first time since the 1970’s that a USD bull has gained less than 50%.

              • alexhartley1 says:

                Ah so in that sense there’s plenty of time really if you disregard short term cycles. It would be a big move to 120 on DXY in a year clearly considering it’s the world’s currency but if there was a ‘black swan’ or an ‘event’ one could easily see what would effectively be a C wave up in surprisingly quick fashion?

              • tony caldaro says:

                Do you mean the
                Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea type of black swan.
                That is neither a democracy or a republic. Nor belongs to the people.

              • alexhartley1 says:

                Actually was thinking more along the lines of a French election issue to kick start it. If the left wing candidate Melenchon matches up with Le Pen in the 2nd round the Euro would drop in my opinion. Later on this year or next possible banking issues (Deutsche or the oldest bank in the world in Italy) in Europe or sovereign debt default. I don’t expect Trump to attack N Korea for now. Could easily be wrong but unless they can take out the artillery quickly Seoul would be in a lot of danger. Not sure that’s acceptable. It’s political dynamite.

              • tony caldaro says:

                A Le Pen victory could get things going

  21. vivelaamo says:

    Transports bear flag? Hmmm…

  22. stormchaser80llc says:

    Looks like a wave 2 lower, a retrace today, which was not unexpected after big gains Monday. SPX hourly showed positive divergence at today’s lows only on the MACD histogram. Breadth today was mixed, though the number of new highs jumped significantly while new lows remains muted. VIX was lower on a down day which is telling. HYG:IEF was unexpectedly lower today, making new lows. However, this ratio has significant positive divergences for all indicators which is bullish for the market. Finally, really want to focus on my Technicals Model which shows a large positive divergence vs. SPX compared to the late March lows, very bullish for the market ahead.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com). However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

    On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback on pros and cons!!

    • fionamargaret says:

      Yuja Wang won Artist of the Year…and really well-deserved.

      Now, on a personal note, it seems I have my troll following me again.
      Yes I am a writer, yes I receive press releases, yes I do research and yes if I know personally the people of whom I write, I ask for a generic copy from their office, so I do not disclose more than is intended.
      As you have done this to a few people on the site apart from myself ..even concluding 2 people were one and the same, with both leaving, I really suggest you take a course, get some friends and find something in your life to be passionate about. (apart from myself).
      If I can help you I shall.

      • CB says:

        1. Watch your language. Pointing out specific cases of plagiarism is not trolling…It means following the rules of this blog. Tony already warned you about that last year… it’s a fact; too bad if it bothers you. Your obvious plagiarism speaks for itself & people can draw their own conclusions.
        2. You are the only one on this blog one who has copied and pasted someone else’s work without proper attribution. Nobody else here has done anything like that before, to my knowledge. So why don’t you simply take responsibility for your own actions instead of dragging others into it and trying to give me advice – I’m not the one breaking the rules, just witnessing it. Only you can stop the offending behavior . Deal with it.
        3. No worries, I have no intention of following you in any way. If you copy others’ work without proper attribution, however, you’ll be held accountable as it is unethical and illegal to do so.
        You should follow yourself perhaps… GL

        • fionamargaret says:

          When one receives a press release it is meant for human consumption, as in the Russian conductor’s bio – actually I was quite surprised myself as I thought he was still in London.
          Press releases are available to all media.
          He did send some music, also waxed poetic about his prodigy.
          Ditto for most of the legal stuff, but as I know the actors, I know their work and mindset, and do a goodly amount of work for them.
          I have never had a bad word from Tony, only encouragement.
          I still offer you help so you have something meaningful to offer….

          • CB says:

            Just help yourself and everything will be fine. I’m happy with my graduate education and don’t need any lessons from you. I also know what a press release is. What’s important is that plagiarism has never been and never will be never tolerated in any academic setting. And pretense should never be confused with reality. GL with your efforts.

  23. Thanks for an excellent post. It is also nice to read something that is not day trader oriented.

  24. If possible, please remove duplicate post.

  25. Yesterday I mentioned that Tony thought we were in the minute C, micro c wave of minor 4, but I seemed to be hsuggesting that Tony thought that the 2322-2329 area was the bottom of the C wave. He corrected that impression by posting a reply that it was just a stop along the way of the C wave’s decline. Of course I knew that he had already stated that 2270-2280 was the most likely terminus of the C wave. But I didn’t want to elaborate further when my main point was simply that Tony considered us to be in a minute C, micro c wave, not at the end of a micro a of minute C wave.
    That point was important because it means that any significant rally from whatever final lows are established will be an impulse minor 5 move. If my speculation that the next rally would be a minute B rally from the 2322-2229 lows, it could very well be an irregular flat that reaches the 2401 area. That would be an excellent swing trade opportunity.
    Day traders can disregard this post because they are just looking for long and short extensions, whatever the exact definition of those are, to key in on quick, short term moves that they can buy and sell frequently. They are really in competition with HFT institutional traders. Any money you can take from those guys is fine with me.

  26. phil1247 says:

    gary r

    daily traditional short traded on /zb today
    peak was within 3 ticks of daily extension short
    wed is bond cycle high but could have been today
    with all that going on i am neither bull nor bear
    call me chicken
    until the extension short is broken above at 155.21

    • mjtplayer says:

      I have TLT going to the $127 area, where I will be going short

      • Why not 130?Fill that gap.I heard today,that one well known bond expert,thinks yields drop to 1.5%.
        My only morsel of info from Ira Epstein tonight is…VIX correction in progress to 13.20 possible.But then a rip higher is expected.With VIX at 14.30 right now,a 15 pt up day would do the trick and get us down to 13.20.So maybe a slight bounce tomorrow again.Gold’s BBs were narrow,now widening with the move up.Bullish.Good luck all.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Can I say I told you so..or am I hexing stuff. I just seek the disappearance of the remaining crow. Good stuff there 26.x

          • “Some gold stock enthusiasts are not aware that the GDXJ ETF is undergoing some portfolio rebalancing. The fund has reached regulatory limits in the amounts of shares it can hold in some companies. That’s causing some temporary selling in some well-known gold stocks, and buying in others.”
            Stewart Thompson.
            LML25:Supposedly doesn’t affect GDX,but who knows?Today should have been a huge up move in GDX (5% plus)But this rebalancing stuff is supposed to last 2-4 weeks.So if it isn’t the ECB playing with gold,it’s the ETFs playing with gold stocks.Unbelieveable.

            • fionamargaret says:

              I have no gold stocks – yet – just the metal. I am playing this for my old dog….

      • fionamargaret says:

        You usually leave really interesting stuff Vishal…..funny, I received a buy TLT over SPY this morning – Normandy Publishing. I already hold, and bought each time it went back to the 120’s. We’ll see….thanks.

    • Gary Rodgers says:

      Hey Phil,

      Looking at a new day. ZB on low ES on High at 45. What’s up?

  27. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is SILVER at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  28. opader says:

    Despite the sell-off, breadth was not that bad for both NSYE and NASDAQ and RUT outperformed other major indices. That is pretty bullish. Also, SGS remained flat despite the sell-off.

    I think chances are good that we get a rally tomorrow. I’m looking to see if SPX penetrates its 50 D-SMA (currently around 2355) deeply and closes solidly (by at least 0.25%) above it.

    • Hardy Morris says:

      123 abc, Have you considered the EWI count that we are in a triangle 4 formation since 3/1 and we are still in minor 1? Their count has “a” on 3/27, “b” on 4/5 and “c” on 4/13 and “d” in progress. This counts also fits the DOW and NASDAQ. Of course a break of the 4/13 low, would indicate that Tony is correct and 2299 is game. Triangles are notorious for consuming time and digesting strong 3rd wave moves and this certainly fulfills that trait.

      • 123 abc says:

        Since 1st March, the activity is either considered as…
        — a Wave-4 Triangle by EWI, or
        — a Wave-4 Double Three by OEW.
        Either way, both suggest a Wave-4 is underway. In my opinion, both interpretations are valid and the Wave-4 formation can be defined either way.

        Personally speculating that decline from 1st March is a Wave-2 (which is quite a bullish count!). Chances are that I’ll revert to the OEW/EWI count. However, currently keeping an alternate view for now —I’m always mindful when the major league EW counts are seeing the same thing!

  29. pooch77 says:

    We should top into Friday and go down all of next week to complete downtrend.Agree with Tony no sell in may go away this year

    • radrian6 says:

      RUT may get started to the downside a bit sooner. Large ABC completed from 1390: 1349-1377-1345. RUT has already retraced 38% at today’s high; 50% retrace at 1368, 61.8% retrace at 1373. Could easily top tomorrow but for maximum effect, they may stretch it into a more exhaustive top and hold it up into the weekend.

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