Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +184

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. European markets were closed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the NY FED was reported lower: 5.2 v 16.4. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2336, pulled back to 2332 in the opening minutes, then started to work its way higher. The market had closed at SPX 2329 on Thursday. At 10am the NAHB was reported lower: 68 v 71. The market continued to rise, with two additional 4-point pullbacks, into the last hour of trading. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2349, and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.85%. Bonds dropped 6 ticks, Crude slid 55 cents, Gold lost $4, and the USD was lower too. Medium term support rises back to the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: housing starts and building permits at 8:30, then industrial production at 9:15.

The market gapped up at the open for the first time since March 21st. That gap up was sold off, this one was not. The last time a gap up opening was not sold off the same day, was the uptrend high on March 1st. While today’s 20-point rally was a good way to start the week, short term momentum has already risen from quite oversold to overbought. So far it looks like a good bounce within an overall correction. With the SPX/DOW in confirmed downtrends, and the NDX/NAZ still awaiting confirmation. We would expect the latter to confirm a downtrend before this correction ends. Short term support rises to the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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139 Responses to Monday update

  1. bud67 says:

    ref Bill O’ Reily comments — on the ladies…I enjoy Mr O. But,
    he really needs to learn to keep his big mouth, shut. Alas, not so sure
    he will learn how to be polite around the ladies…thus his TV future
    looks dismal to me…alas….I should stay with stock market comments, too.
    right?….yeah, I know….

  2. pooch77 says:

    I posted at dow-125

  3. pooch77 says:

    Reverse right here?

  4. IBM up next to take DOW down tomorrow. Will meet on both earnings and revenue, amazing how they do that, but will guide lower.

  5. torehund says:

    Just another euro day😩😩😩

  6. micky says:

    need more action to the upside, battling with second resist atm.

  7. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Possible Symmetry & Pivot S/R Swing Target @ 236ish
    Or, it drops into W/M Support.
    Who knows, maybe a Trump Tweet will decide! 😉
    GL All

  8. Page says:

    There are different forms of retracements:

    1) long, extension-long, extra-extension-long, extra-extra-extension-long, super-extension-long
    and double-super-extension-long.
    2) short, extension-short, extra-extension-short, extra-extra-extension-short, super-extension-short and double-super-extension-short.

  9. vivelaamo says:

    RUT still can’t even close below 1340. I don’t think there is anything to worry about yet.

  10. phil1247 says:

    Gary R
    we are about to find out if bonds are in extensions
    /zbm7 154.20 is .618 support

  11. phil1247 says:


    are you 🙂 ?
    52.22 is next target

  12. Richard Glackin says:

    2330.5ES may be it for this wave 2. We’re already past the 1.618 retrace.

  13. H D says:

    Should I just mail my tax payment to Mar-A-Lago Florida? Wouldn’t that be easier?

  14. between 2330 and 2350 is just chop. Not bullish, not bearish. If your more ubberer bearish, you need 2350 to hold and a greater chance of dropping to the 200 day 2240 ish moving target over the next few weeks, B wave scenario gets you higher, but probably limits the down side to 2270-2300.
    Im in the camp 2351 will not be broken to the upside and we are headed to the 2240 area

  15. phil1247 says:


    GOLD is starting to look more interesting
    but needs to do more
    possible extension long developing….
    if so will be VERY interested


  16. Gary Rodgers says:

    I guess threatening to shoot down Korean missiles isn’t good for the market.

  17. bud67 says:

    SP500 cash, would like to see a push below the prior low.2322.25.
    That should be a great place to est. now long positions. The decline,
    as expected, not big enough to create a chart tech concern – thus,
    this is still a Bull market….Great work Tony, just waiting for your next

  18. pooch77 says:

    We should bottom out today and finish week 2370ish.Next week should start out
    sliding down all week.Then we go up in month of May

  19. mcgcapital says:

    Beautiful move on the FTSE today. Would expect a test of 7100 is on the cards before this is done. Sterling breaking to the upside too.. if $1.27 goes with force then it could head back to the $1.40s given time.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Labour are finished!

      • mcgcapital says:

        Yeah.. embarrassing really. Can’t see anything other than a big conservative majority. Just surprised this is seen as a very strong sterling positive as it means a hard Brexit is more likely. But guess the charts don’t lie.. it’s been basing for a few months now and if it was a stock you’d be saying a break above here and we head back towards pre-Brexit levels.

        • vivelaamo says:

          Hopefully it could be that the whole reaction to Brexit destroying the economy has been overdone and they raise rates back to 0.50 at least.

          Well done on FTSE shorts, payed off in the end!

          • mcgcapital says:

            Cheers… out now for a decent profit. Been a frustrating few months making and losing 10-20 points here and there. Didn’t think we would take out the Jan lows on this move but nearly there already. Will follow TC and get long when it looks like it might have bottomed next

  20. phil1247 says:

    gary R

    looking to sell bonds on any further pop up

    target near

  21. jhjoyner says:

    SPY had 1.6 b money inflow Monday.

  22. Richard Glackin says:

    Incidentally, Silver (starting way back at 15.75 on 12-19-2016) is showing a 1-2, 1-and a wave 2 pullback just started. When this abc pullback completes (50% pullback would be about 17.75) that would be an excellent point to get into silver. Good luck to all.

  23. Richard Glackin says:

    OK folks, today was wave 1 of ‘c’ of B. And, since this is a ‘c’ wave it will most likely be 5 waves up. Just don’t forget that once this ‘B’ wave completes 2380 plus…we STILL have the ‘C’ wave down to complete this wave 4. The structure of this wave 4 is (abc)’A’, (abc)’B’, and then (12345)’C’ down. While it’s a little early to tell, I’m thinking the final bottom of this wave 4 will be in the 2280 to 2300 area. Good luck to all.

    • Richard:
      I don’t get the ‘c’ of B. The ‘1’ or ‘a’ of B would make sense, but how did we get to ‘c’ on the first day of the rally?

      • Richard Glackin says:

        George, the ‘a’ of ‘B’ finished at 2375 on April 5th, the ‘b’ of ‘B’ finished at 2322.75 Sunday night. (These are ES numbers of course.) We just started the ‘c’ of ‘B’ Monday am. That should take us up close to 2400. Then the big ‘C’ wave down. Does that help?

        • Yes, I see what you are talking about but it is a different way of counting from Tony’s. If the 2329 low were the end of A, then we still have an entire a-b-c ahead of us. I tend to think that is the correct count because it will take more time, and I think the market will need more time to await events and sort through fundamentals.

        • R. Glackin:
          I was looking at HD’S chart below and he appears to have the same wave interpretation as you, although his black chart doesn’t have dates on it.

  24. A +1415 on the daily NYSE A-D line brought an ATH to the weekly chart, but not to the daily chart.
    I have only been able to locate the “daily oscillator” version of the SPX A-D line on Stockcharts. I had the cumulative version bookmarked in my XP OS, but when I upgraded to Win 10, it was lost. Could someone post the link to the cumulative SPX A-D line for my benefit?

  25. stormchaser80llc says:

    The strong reversal called for on Thursday happened today. VIX dropped big as expected, with SPX already back to its 2351 resistance line. Once surpassed it will act as support. My Technicals Model, although lower, was much higher than Thursday. It has put in strong positive divergence vs. SPX comparing to the low in late March. My trading signal derived from my Technicals Model is once again Bullish. My other favorite indicator is fast approaching a BUY signal. I am 70% confident that the downturn that began in early March is now over. All technical indicators have reset lower, which support room to run higher, potentially putting in another All Time High to come.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

    On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback on pros and cons!!

  26. 13.46 on VIX will be the test.A reversal there and move higher will be the end of the bounce in S&P.Break lower and you can go down to 11 w/higher equity prices.The only logical reason for VIX to break 13.46 is a perceived end to North Korea’s drama.Who wants to bet that Trump or NK will back down?We’re at a 4th Turning line in the sand.
    Mr C,if you’ve read this far…what’s your thinking on possible outcomes over there,in order of likelyhood?
    1)NK backs down with an agreement pushed by China
    2)This continues for a while
    3)Trump sends conventional weapons to blow up their nuclear test facility.Nothing else happens.
    4)Trump sends weapons over–all hell breaks loose.Japan,South Korea attacked.Iran decides to attack Israel etc etc etc.

  27. H D says:

    Just one POV, was able to count 5-3-5-3-5 from 2378.36. Possible leading diagonal 1 of C. 2355 just above but already some fibonacci retracement. Sometimes deeper after a LD. 2300 and 2270 did flash. Notable prices from Tony’s weekend update.

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Regarding Raymond James, while they are pretty good, no one is right all of the time.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Ill judged words and miscalculations in Washington and Pyongyang led to the outbreak of the Korean War.
        The danger now is that once more the governments in the US and Pyongyang will miscalculate.
        President Donald Trump signals resolve, and if Kim concludes the US is indeed poised to attack his regime, he will be tempted to attack first, using nuclear weapons early, before he is killed and his munitions destroyed. Added to this he knows an armada is steaming towards him…he has to go first.
        What does Trump do? Does he turn the ships around? He switches in both policy and rhetoric, so this is indeed possible.
        But more likely, he is convincing himself a first strike on North Korea is a winnable option, which goes against standard military advice that this is impossible without South Korea, Japan and US bases being caught up in the melee.
        There is also the danger that Trump has found a new “winning” strategy so important to his voters and his psyche, through military means….

        • CB says:

          since you have claim to have writing aspirations, please remember that attributing quotes to the original author is considered the norm, especially when you borrow whole sentences from someone else. It’s called intellectual property for a reason. This is the 2nd time , Fiona in the last few days..why is it so difficult for you to attribute someone else’s material to the original author? This time you have borrowed from ft. com. A few days ago you quoted from them as well when you “borrowed” sentences about a Russian conductor. Anyone can easily dins out when you do that and it really stinks when people do that on Tony’s blog. How can preaching to us about “professionalism” and do this is hard to understand.. Think about it before you start “borrowing” from someone else…

          • CB says:

            should read: How you can preach to us about “professionalism” and do this kind of thing at the same time is hard to understand..

          • CB says:

            also, should read: “Anyone can easily find out when you do that”….sorry about the typos..

          • CB:
            What does “dins out” mean?

            • It means “find out”. Found it in your correction.

              • CB says:

                No doubt, George, Fiona posts a lot of trading -related material.
                And it’s great to share others’ ideas as long as we always acknowledge the source. If someone forgets to do that and it happens a few times, then it raises some questions. Here’s a recent example which was, well…very concerning. Take a look at it when you have some time.
                Here’s what was posted on this blog regarding Gorsuch’s nomination recently and what seemed to be an obvious quote from a polished writer and a legal expert…. It sounded interesting so I wanted to read the whole article and I decided to find out where those views actually came from.
                OK, so here’s this article about Justice Gorsuch written by an attorney (in January ’17) (scroll down to the 2nd post to locate it).
                As you can easily see after reading just the 1st paragraph of the published article, what was posted here on the blog contains the exact same phrases that the attorney used in her work….kinda shocking I thought… and why would anyone do something like that..

                So, yes we always tends to give people the benefit of the doubt. At some point, however, when you see a pattern of non-attribution, you sadly realize that sometimes you need to “trust, but verify.”
                I think that it’s in everyone’s best interest to concentrate on developing their own talents and expressing them. Everyone has something unique to contribute and people always appreciate that.

            • CB says:

              George, sorry about the typo. I corrected it in my second post just below the original one… it should read “anyone can easily find out (not “dins out” ;)..sorry about that… I was in a hurry and mangled a couple of sentences… Bottom line is, we come here expecting original thinking and also expecting people to know right from wrong..

              • I think Fiona was probably just trying to save a few keystrokes rather than trying to claim credit for someone else’s work.. She is one of the most positive and helpful people on the site. But you are right, a quote, especially an extensive one, should have accurate attribution.

      • fionamargaret says:

        …and Richard, I am sure they are probably happy with that….
        I am just appreciative to receive their daily musings…

      • fotis2 says:

        You hit it on the nail there’s a gazillion pros calling the next move and they all have one thing in common 50% right is about the best they can do.

  28. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.

    Even though consumer confidence is currently extremely high, some economists are starting to mention the “R” word because of weak bank lending…
    Some charts.. :

    • I posted on this site the week before last that there were enough signs of economic weakness to possibly prevent the Fed from carrying out all it’s planned rake hikes for the next year (from now). I think it is quite possible that before too long the Fed will be reminding us that it’s policy is “data-driven” rather than pre-determined.

  29. Good chance of a 33333 bullflag here, as 4:th wave.
    Bullish engulfing Candle up from bottom of potential triangle

  30. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is GOLD at

  31. phil1247 says:


    gary Rodgers

    can you see this chart ?

  32. prakashbkc says:

    Confirmed downtrend in spx/ dow is based on weekly or daily chart or both?

  33. Tarun Varma says:

    Tony, based on your comment “and the NDX/NAZ still awaiting confirmation”, what technical confirmation is needed to confirm the downtrend there?

  34. kingfrogcash says:

    $AMZN should be the catalyst for NDX/NAZ correction confirmation. Have we seen +100 point drop before on one stock? April 27th.

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