SHORT TERM: downtrend confirmed, DOW -139
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 the PPI was reported lower: -0.1% v 0.3%, and weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 244K v 234K. The market opened 6 points below yesterday’s SPX 2345 close, dipped to 2338, and then started to rally. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported lower: 96.0 v 96.9, and the WLEI was reported lower: 57.1% v 57.5%. The rally continued until 11am when the SPX double topped at 2348. Then the market resumed its decline. For the rest of the day the market had two bounces, but closed at the SPX 2329 low of the day.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.65%, and thee NDX/NAZ lost 0.50%. Bonds gained 18 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold added $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at the 2336 and 2385 pivots. Tomorrow is the good Friday holiday, but we have the following reports: the CPI and retail sales at 8:30, then business inventories and the Q1 GDP estimate at 10am.
Today’s selloff was sufficient to confirm a downtrend has been underway since the early-March SPX 2401 all-time high. The charts will be updated to confirm, as suspected, a Minor wave 4 is in progress. As noted earlier in the week, and over the weekend, support for this downtrend appears to be at SPX 2299, the 2270-2286pivots, and worse case SPX 2234. More on this in the weekend update. We will report a short post tomorrow on the overnight action and the economic reports, plus anything else that might appear interesting. Enjoy the three-day weekend, and happy holiday!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: uptrend