SHORT TERM: decline continues, DOW -59
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher but finished mixed. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 export (0.2% v 0.3%)/import (0.2% v 0.3%) prices were reported higher. The market opened 6 points below yesterday’s SPX 2354 close, and then started to rebound. By 10:30 it had rallied back to SPX 2353 before heading lower again. Around noon the SPX hit 2341, then reversed and rallied to 2350 by 2pm. At 2pm the budget deficit was reported wider: -$176.2B v -$108.0B. Then the market headed lower again. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2342, then rebounded to close at 2345.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.45%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude lost 45 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims and the PPI at 8:30.
The market opened lower today, declined to the high end of the 2336 pivot range, rallied to SPX 2350, then declined to the high end of the pivot range again. At this point in time it will not take much more downward pressure to confirm the suspected downtrend. The pattern we noted yesterday: 3-waves to 2322, 3-waves to 2378, and now possibly 3-waves to 2299 unfolding. This  should be 1st support for a correction, with 2nd support at the 2270-2286 pivots, and last support at SPX 2234. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day just below neutral. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend gaining in probability
LONG TERM: uptrend