Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: decline continues, DOW -7

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1% as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 4 points below yesterday’s SPX 2357 close. The market continued to decline until around 11am when the SPX hit 2337. Then the market rallied all the way back to SPX 2354 by 3pm. After a small dip in the lasy hour of trading the market closed at SPX 2354.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.35%. Bonds gained 17 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold rallied $17, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: export/import prices at 8:30, then the budget deficit at 2pm.

The market opened lower today, dropped to its lowest level in two weeks, then rebounded almost back to unchanged. Over the past two weeks the SPX has found support at the 2321 pivot, ran into resistance at the 2385 pivot, and today found support at the 2336 pivot. Quite a range of corrective waves. If we count SPX 2401 as the Minor wave 3 high, we can then count: an abc down to SPX 2322, an abc up to SPX 2378, and now another abc down to possibly SPX 2299. At that level the last abc would equal the first abc. Short term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum was quite oversold this am before rebounding to neutral. Trade what’s in front of you! Swarm is next at 5pm.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probability increasing

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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129 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. phil1247 says:


  2. Dex T says:

    Yellen said she expected the economy to continue to grow at a moderate pace and that gradual interest-rate increases “can get us where we need to be.”

    Yellen, whose term as chair ends early next year, said it’s as important to avoid moving rates too slowly as it to avoid moving too rapidly.

    “We want to be ahead of the curve and not behind it,” she said. “We don’t want to be in a position where we have to raise rates rapidly, which could conceivably cause a recession.”


    • Dex T says:

      Yellen has come out again to remind us the Fed is going to continue it’s path of steady interest rate hikes

      It seems the Fed’s target is 3% within the next 2 years

      market is predicting next increase to take place in June

  3. now that that fake rally, sell it into the close

  4. fionamargaret says:

    I still have all TLT, UGLD, as I said I thought gold was going to 1350….maybe 1500, USLV, and am short oil……

  5. phil1247 says:

    there is the bond spike ..
    ….unfortunately i was right …but didnt play it right

  6. I never do this, but a good sell point is only just under the low of yesterday, or 2335 SPX. Other than that will be keeping an Inside day and could go triangulating until after Easter break.

  7. micky says:

    43 area holds or not

  8. tommyboys says:

    Greed/Fear been hovering in the 20s/30s for a while now. If its a wave 4 designed to burn off optimism/exuberance – its worked.

    • mjtplayer says:

      I love how the VIX was trading in the 10’s and 11’s, but this indicator called the VIX “neutral” the whole time.

      Now the VIX is in the 15’s and it’s somehow “extreme fear”? Ha!

      What’s extreme greed – a VIX of 7???

      Garbage indicator, pay no attention to it

      • tommyboys says:

        VIX is only one of about a dozen indicators in the fear index. Further most misread the VIX. The VIX is simply an indicator of what premiums options traders are willing to pay.

  9. sticking with the low in tomorrow, shorting here, stop 2351. will see. I see BJ pattern as well, but got to stick with my system

  10. blackjak100 says:

    Minor 4 triangle still alive and well. As long as today’s low holds, that would mark ‘b of d’ with ‘c of d’ underway now and tomorrow targeting 2367ish. It now has a better look with wave d taking up more time.

  11. NEWBIE says:


    Do you think the WROC signal will be flashing soon?

  12. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ 2 x Test WS = WPP Test?
    GL All

  13. phil1247 says:



  14. pooch77 says:

    Can bears actually keep this market down for a whole day at these levels? Another 1/2% down wouldn’t hurt the cause but I have my doubts

  15. phil1247 says:

    TLT…. /ZB

    still looking for a SPIKE up to sell into

    maybe post auction at 1 PM

  16. micky says:

    support area holding so far, but if 41 goes I have max down to 37-34 atm

  17. Looks like a ways to go up.

  18. mjtplayer says:

    Spot VIX trading 100bps over May futures – no fear beyond a couple weeks. VIX short interest still near record highs, would like to see a massive squeeze up and over 20 in the spot and 18+ in the front month contract after next week’s roll

  19. Daily SPX MACD now printing below the zero line.
    Buckle up.

  20. VIX at a new high for the year.Rounding pattern looks like it wants to go to 23.

  21. fotis2 says:

    I see all is good Aahmichael and Phil at it again and Vive versus Newbie round no.112. 😉 ;);)

    • phil1247 says:

      ha fotis …..

      careful with /cl….. it could be a powder keg

      whats with south africa turning into junk?

      • fotis2 says:

        Phil still have family over there a lot if uncertainty at the moment as a result of Zuma statement about taking over farms with zero compensation looks like the coffers are running dry and when in Africa….

      • phil1247 says:

        ext long /clk7 nicked ………out of uco for now

        good luck on your short fotis !

        • phil1247 says:

          praying for the safety of your family……..
          …the most important thing in this world

    • vivelaamo says:

      I like Newbie. He is just a very frustrated bear.

  22. scottycj1 says:

    Consolidation about finished. Indicators and oscillators reset. CIT for Friday the 14th is a holiday so likely the 13th takes it’s place.

  23. phil1247 says:


    little long from lows shown last nite hit target at 3 am

    bullish above moves up to 2342 now

    • It seems to playing in the 33 to 63 Fib zone at the moment……….agree or disagree?

      • phil1247 says:

        sorry …. not really interested in spx
        just posted cuz u guys like it
        oil and bonds are behaving better ….easy money

        probably because u r dealing with only one variable instead of 500

        • phil1247 says:

          30 yr bond spike down to 2.9 yield should be on tap

          looking to take profits on bonds there …maybe after the auction
          tlt should hit target

    • aahmichael says:

      The lows that you showed last night were put in yesterday morning, just prior to 11AM. More than an hour after that, you claimed to be short, and also claimed that your target was SPX 2299. So, it’s safe to say that you are not long from the lows that you showed last night. Yet another fake trade.

      • phil1247 says:

        just because you dont know how to trade
        does not mean that someone else cant do it

        if you did you would not have let all your short profits vaporize on /es

        and because of your bias ……” bonds are the truth tellers ”
        i am sure you didnt heed my mantra ” sell into any bond rally” at 143 TLT

        i am sure you watched all your TLT profits vaporize
        and held through the entire collapse

        because its what YOU do…

        • aahmichael says:

          It doesn’t take any kind of special trading skills to post fake trades on this blog. Apparently, though, it’s hard to keep track of them when you post so many of them.

    • Gary Rodgers says:

      Hey Phil If I’m getting this stuff I would say that the target of the 2342 LIS would be 2362. Question is that runs through the short (again) from 2375 at 2359.

  24. phil1247 says:


    blasted thru short from highs at 53.50

    hit ext long target at 53.70
    UCO looking good for gap up at open

    but will probably exit around NEWS time at 1030 am
    because of stop runs

    and reassess after thing s settle down

  25. vivelaamo says:

    It feels like the market wants to rally and is waiting for some kind of catalyst to do so. It will come and the rally will be explosive.

    • NEWBIE says:

      How underwater are you on your last long purchase?

      • vivelaamo says:

        I’m not, I got stopped out. How underwater are you on your shorts?

        Tell the truth.

        • NEWBIE says:

          You seem to think I have been short since 666 on the spx which is simply not the case. I am day trader and swing trader who goes both long and short and who uses stops as well.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Considering I been buying dips for months and we are currently 2% off all time highs and you have been calling for crashes for months when we’ve gone on to see massive rallies who is more likely to be underwater?

        • tommyboys says:

          Newb said he was “heavy short” just last week – go back and check. I know he’s not short or long and its all BS. He’s just bitter about the long bull and wants the economy to fall apart to appease himself . Just another bull hater – It’s the internet ya know (Lee)!

  26. Any way we see it:
    Now a bigger 4th
    Just after a quick and lower target 5th
    To follow a huge II
    Load of volatility ahead and at present. That’s make sense with the geopolitical turmoil we are involved.
    Trading what is in front of me.

  27. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Nice re-test of the 50DMA again.

  28. IRA EPSTEIN sez…”This time is different.The V I X did not collapse after getting over the BB.No all clear until it gets below 10.90ish.DefInite downtrend at work here….and gold has a move up to 1293 probable.”
    That’s all folks.

    • fionamargaret says:

      An achingly beautiful interpretation of Rachmaninoff’s 2…note how Lang Lang’s hands and fingers change height and shape to caress or dominate the keys….physics at work.
      Oh Lang Lang, can it get better…….x

  29. stormchaser80llc says:

    While exciting selling occurred today on SPX, breadth indicators were steady or even improved today! The market has been consolidating since the 3/1 All Time High. With my Technicals Signal a BUY and favorite signal a SELL (barely) this remains a mixed market. My favorite indicator may go BULLISH any day now, just need a little upside to sustain. Want the market to get above and stay above 2371 resistance line. VIX RSI and MACD are over extending, but need to make a new high in VIX to formulate those negative divergences. Oil has been hot, perhaps when the run settles down that money may make it back to the equities (Watch out with Oil above its Bollinger Band). Beware a quite market, its at the lowest 2.1% of volatility dating back to 1990.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com). However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

    On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback on pros and cons!!

  30. phil1247 says:



    that bounce from 2333 came out of nowhere … right ?

  31. 123 abc says:

    Unfortunately had to miss the Swarm today, hope it went well.

    • tony caldaro says:

      was okay and quick too

    • I think your green minute ‘b’ may be a little premature, possibly the yellow micro ‘a’ goes there instead…and today’s low a micro ‘b’, and micro ‘c’ up will finish up the green minute ‘b’ at a higher level – 2,390 to 2,410 perhaps? After that, the ride down for green minute ‘c’ can begin to finish off the 4 wave…

      • 123 abc says:

        Agree that’s possible, and it will synchronise well with ‘sell in May and go away’. Shall adopt your count if 2278 is exceeded, thank you for the suggestion. By the way, I’m speculating that this is a wave-2 pullback, not a wave-4 pullback.

        • I see…I’m viewing your MInor 1 @ 2,401 as Int iii…and looking at Int ii, the current action aligns in terms of size and duration, should it follow my proposal for a b-wave peak yet to come.

    • Btw, really enjoy your charts and counts, thanks for sharing!

  32. Tarun Varma says:

    Based on this statement “an abc down to SPX 2322, an abc up to SPX 2378, and now another abc down to possibly SPX 2299. At that level the last abc would equal the first abc.” your suggesting today’s rise will stall around $SPX 2367 (‘b’) before possibly 2299 (‘c’)?

  33. Jimbo says:

    Swarm has started

  34. Thank you Tony. Happy Tuesday.

  35. blackjak100 says:

    Minor 4 triangle with wave d targeting 2367ish???

  36. Dex T says:


    Based on their previous moves I’m guessing the “Netflix of China” won’t have anymore success making movies than their Silicon valley entrance.

    Hollywood is a tough, tough industry and most movies are not financial successes.

  37. phil1247 says:


    re /CLK7

    back a t the highs …if thru 53 50 tonite could be huge gap up in am in UCO

    will check it by 8 pm and decide

  38. Mr C,do you think its likely that S&P can break the 13 week at 2333 and not try to test 2263 (34d)?By stopping at 2299 wouldn’t that be unusual?Thanks.

  39. pooch77 says:

    Sorry Tony but when you say “trade whats in front of you” sounds like your saying i have know idea what market is doing with these out of the blue v turn arounds

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