Monday update

SHORT TERM: higher open choppy trading, DOW +2

Overnight the Asian market gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%. US index futures were flat to higher overnight, and the market opened 3 points above Friday’s SPX 2356 close. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2366 then started to pullback. Just past noon the SPX had dropped to 2352, found support, and reversed to the upside. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 2363 then pulled back to close at 2357.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.05%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rose 80 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. FED chair Yellen has a discussion after today’s close.

The market opened higher today, rallied, then turned negative, before rallying yet again, only to finish about unchanged. The choppy activity over the past several weeks, with a downward bias, continues. The market continues to be range bound, much like Minor wave 2 before it broke lower. A breakout, and the uptrend resumes. A breakdown, below the 2336/2321 support pivots, and the downtrend gets confirmed. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum spent the entire day just around neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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138 Responses to Monday update

  1. Next leg down at 2354 ES. The break is at 2361 still ES.

  2. Dex T says:

    “LeEco, the so-called “Netflix of China,” was supposed to take the US tech scene by storm. Instead, its ambitious plans appear to be collapsing. Six months after a splashy US launch, Bloomberg reports that LeEco missed its 2016 US sales goals “by a wide margin” and that it is planning on cutting jobs.

    According to the report, the company is gearing up to cut about one third of its workforce in the United States:”

    • Dex T says:

      “Even worse, according to Bloomberg, the layoffs haven’t happened yet because the company can’t afford to pay severance:

      “Last June, the company spent $250 million to buy 50 acres of land from Yahoo in the heart of Silicon Valley. The plan was that the new property would house up to 12,000 employees”

  3. blackjak100 says:

    Minor 4 triangle in progress??? Wave d starting at today’s low?

  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    GDP lowered down to .8% for 1st quarter
    Auto Sales horrendous
    Real Incomes declining thanks to inflation
    Health Care bill failed
    Tax reform is being pushed back
    North Korea and Syria are simmering
    Fed trying to normalize after massive unprecedented QE
    Valuations are expensive
    Corporate profits are down from 2013 levels!!!

    and yet even though the market is down only 2% from its peak people are buying a small drop because Trump will solve all.

    if people don’t think we are in a bubble than I laugh

    • aahmichael says:

      …and Morgan Stanley now calling for SPX 3000 within 12 months, with 2700 being its worst case scenario.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        yeah I read that – very funny piece. Amazing how the biggest analysts disregard their fundamental analysis succumbing to price

        • aahmichael says:

          MS has a new guy at the top. This is his first call in his new position. He’s trying to outdo his predecessor’s last call. That one was a beauty. At the close on 7/20/15, he said he had never seen a more bullish setup, and the next move would be an immediate melt-up of 10%. Instead, the next move was an immediate melt-down of 15%.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Short and have the last laugh then.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        I’ve been in the gold miners and doing quite well Vive…………..I would go long if I got enough of a pullback in equities………… play the musical chairs. I choose not to

  5. NEWBIE says:

    Does everybody here think the bottom is in or one more swoop down?

  6. phil1247 says:

    here comes da SPIKE to 2359

  7. bud67 says:

    AAPL…like to see it drop to $82, for my buy point,,,,

  8. micky says:

    I have 49/52 vstr

  9. vivelaamo says:

    Chop fest before we explode to the upside! How long we chop is anyone’s guess.

  10. Bollinger bands getting in the way of everything.Who invented those thing?Lol.

  11. pooch77 says:

    Small caps need to break down if this bear has any legs

  12. Page says:

    Markets will bottom today and there is a good chance of turn around this afternoon.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Going through 2343 should get us to 2311 in short order….

      • just as good of a chance that it was saved today and up we go. 60/40 bullish, cause that’s what the market does

      • phil1247 says:

        a spike up to 2361 would not surprise me at all

      • fionamargaret says:

        ..and oil should go to 45….do you think everyone is going to stick to cutbacks….high oil later in the year….
        remember though…. the best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry, an’ leave us nought but grief an’ pain for promised joy…

        • phil1247 says:

          above /clk7 53.50

          test of top is next at 57.50

          • fionamargaret says:

            go short oil Phil to 45…the hedge funds are mostly long…hedge fund pie mmmmm..

            • phil1247 says:

              sold half UCO when /clk7 spiked above 53.37

              came within 2 cents of target
              and looked like a post triangle thrust wave 5
              absolutely NO reason to be short

        • Aye, Bobby Burns said that.

          • fionamargaret says:

            Wee sleekit cowrin’ timrous beastie, O what a panic’s in thy breastie
            Thou need na start awa sae hasty, Wi bickering brattle.
            I wad be laith tae run an’ chase thee Wi’ murd’ring pattle.
            I’m truly sorry man’s dominion Has broken nature’s social union.
            An’ justifies that ill opinion Which makes thee startle
            At me, thy poor earth-born companion An’ fellow- mortal

            George, my grandfather used to walk with me and recite Burns….sometimes Tennyson…but Burns descriptive poetry does the same to my heart as Beethoven…x

  13. phil1247 says:

    DOW cash

    weeks ago i showed the violation of the extension long at 20530

    it is getting hammered again .
    ..we had our
    ” final rally before the extension breaks down with a vengance”
    to 20887′

    target 20222

    • phil1247 says:

      probably need a CLOSE below 20530 to seal the deal
      the extension long was severely tested
      at spx 1810
      but did not fail
      and reached its target at ……

      anyone ? anyone ?… bueller ???

      yes… target was hit at 2363 …. the phfill PIVOT !!
      you can t make this stuff up !

  14. EL MATADOR says:

    Weekly and Monthly charts proving dominate over daily chart as retest of 2322 low underway. Trendlines and fib to look for April low.

    • I thought there was a decent chance of SPX hitting the 34 week at 2263.Trannies need to flush to get it moving though.Drop below 2333 (13 week)would help as well.

      • EL MATADOR says:

        April low should just be wave A. We still have May to complete the ongoing correction, by then we should see a hit on the 34 weekly…..Just my dos centavos

  15. vivelaamo says:

    Russel staying strong. How come?

  16. TLT gets above 122.25 and it’s opens up for more gains–for GDX as well.

  17. We have fallen out of the huge ED base, It will be a blood bath

  18. phil1247 says:


    a dead zone and wasteland
    when i am no longer able to predict spx close
    to within a point or two from early in the morning.

    then it will be time to trade spx

  19. phil1247 says:

    TLT /ZB

    bonds are rallying nicely from fridays lows
    holding ext long support as shown last week
    looking for another spike to sell into…
    maybe 123 TLT

    maybe after the auctions

  20. phil1247 says:


    new highs after hours and 53.17 ext long target hit !
    now struggling at target

    looking to take profits on UCO..
    but no shorting until the new extension long fails at 52.65

    • fionamargaret says:

      …look at the break-evens Phil…the reflation trade is under water…maybe oil will not go back as far as 45….and yes, I could argue for the other side….but the numbers suggest down. x

  21. torehund says:

    Parkour, developing the skills to survive in the modern world.

  22. bud67 says:

    I am expecting new – SP500 – price highs in the near future….

  23. alexhartley1 says:

    Hi Tony. On the TSLA stock charts (daily and weekly) are they showing negative divergences? Thanks

  24. Here’s one for group.I couldn’t resist

  25. – Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Monday, inflation lagged behind the Federal Reserve target of 2% but insisted that the economy is ‘pretty healthy’.

    In a Q&A session on Monday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen maintained her previous view that rate hikes should be gradual in order to allow “the economy to kind of coast” and prevent a situation, in which the economy overheats.

    In terms of economic growth, Ms. Yellen expressed slight disappointment about the pace of economic growth, which has averaged 2% throughout the recovery but added that the average pace of growth has “generated a lot jobs” and contributed to an improving labor market.’s Fed Rate monitor tool, was little changed following Ms. Yellen’s comments, as traders’ expectations of a June rate hike remained unchanged at 55.9%.

    Ms. Yellen, comments had little impact on markets, as the dollar inched lower, while gold attempted to move into positive territory.

  26. ariez5 says:

    The greatest mystery to me today is why UAL did not sell off on the video of the passenger being dragged off the Chicago-Louisville flight and the CEO’s defense of their behavior. I could not imagine a more stupid response, even if I were standing in front of a Chipotle. I could not possibly buy a ticket on this plane until they admit how poorly they managed this situation, and I imagine many others might feel the same. Moreover, this happened at exactly the .618 retrace of the decline from the December ATH.

    • What did the passenger do to provoke this reaction, whether the response was appropriate or not?

      • He wouldn’t leave an overbooked plane.They did a lottery draw to see who had to go–he won.But unlike the other 3 that had their names drawn( that left in a civilized way),he hunkered down and wound up leaving his heel marks in the floor as security helped him depart unwillingly.

        • Learned: It was the airlines fault that the plane was overbooked, but if he wouldn’t leave voluntarily, I don’t know what they should have done — give all 4 of them a free ticket.

        • torehund says:

          The entre world and its inhibitants are having a temper tantrum.

        • bud67 says:

          this guy was looking for a fight….only if his flight was a personal emergency.
          Could I see the passenger having a legal claim. — otw, I do not agree with
          you. And, I am retired FAA…

      • The flight was overbooked problem #1. That was resolved. Problem #2 was a new/different flight crew of 4 had to board that flight (as passengers) because that flight crew needed to be at the destination city for a flight the next day, so 4 additional passengers had to give up their seats. United offered $800.00 per seat, by law they could have gone up to 1350.00, they didn’t. The captain of that flight crew could have intervened and handed this issue better. This is a black eye for United.

    • bud67 says:

      Maybe, share holders, feel, tat UAL was in the right…..

  27. Quick note:GDX stayed positive with no selloff.6 Days running over the 34d.13/34 crossed a week ago.It’s doing what it should if you’re anticipating more gains.Very slow progress though,almost stealthily rising.Staying under the radar.May add more tomorrow if we repeat today.Good luck all.

  28. stormchaser80llc says:

    From the looks of things, the market has been consolidating since the 3/1 All Time High. With my Technicals Signal a BUY and favorite signal a SELL (barely) this remains a mixed market. My favorite indicator may go BULLISH any day now, just need a little upside to sustain. Want the market to get above and stay above 2371 resistance line. VIX RSI and MACD are over extending, with negative divergences on ADX +DI and MACD histogram, and may turn lower soon. Oil has been hot, perhaps when the run settles down that money may make it back to the equities. Beware a quite market, its at the lowest 2.2% of volatility dating back to 1990.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

    On my site, be sure to check out the real-time Trading Platform (look for it on the top menu). I am taking feedback on pros and cons!!

  29. jhjoyner says:

    SPX between 20 and 50 dma. What gives?

  30. Another way of looking at things using moving averages. The 30 day, which used to provide support, is now offering resistance while the 50 day is now offering the support. A close above the 30 could signal an upside move while a close below the 50 would likely flag a move down.

  31. thoth8 says:

    This market probably will clear the chop-chop range, until all IRA contributions are collected by Big boys! After April 15th?!

  32. torehund says:

    Btk tells a story also of the general market. Broke out, then a retest of the breakout level and then hessitation. Thats where we are, in the chopper 🌊🌊🌊

  33. Thanks Tony. At this moment which of the two counts best describe what you are seeing in the market? And is there any particular wave behavior that stands out? Based upon the ADL for the SPX and different McClellan readings for the index, I continue to see more upside potential than downside, fully understanding just about anything can happen. For example, the oscillator recently hit a low of -70 and is now at -7. (Today’s high closed the gap around 2366.) Lastly, do you have at your fingertips any graphics of your study of cyclical bull and bear markets. I ask only because there is considerable disagreement on the exact dates of these cycles, particularly with Crestmont who uses expanding or contracting P/E ratios to define such periods. This study seems to capture the greatest agreement: Is it close to yours?

    • tony caldaro says:

      All rallies continue to get sold … sign of a correction
      Just like we quantify medium term trends we quantify long term trends. This way there is no subjectivity about what is a bull market and what is a bear market.
      In the study we did there were more than 50 long term trend changes. Plenty of time and price movement to measure earnings versus market performance. We observed many bull markets during declining earnings, and bear market during rising earnings. Any OEW student can do the same analysis.

    • Swede: I found the SPX A-D line on Stockcharts and all I could find was the SPX A-D percent in the form of an oscillator. Is an actual A-D line available for free users, especially one that is not an oscillator, but cumulative?

  34. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $NZDUSD at

  35. mcgcapital says:

    Worth a read.. explains the dreadful trading ranges and why it won’t last forever. Hopefully something breathes life into the market soon

  36. phil1247 says:

    SPX close 2357.16

    no photo finish this time !

    Thailand Hawaii wins by a full length !

  37. Hugh Jazole says:

    “A breakout, and the uptrend resumes.” My bets are on this outcome, and I tend to be bearish.

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