SHORT TERM: lower open then rally, DOW +15
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 234K v 258K. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2353, moved up to 2356, then hit 2349 in a choppy opening. After that the market started to move higher. At 1:30 the market had rebounded to SPX 2364, and then started to pullback. By 3pm the pullback ended at SPX 2353, then the market rose to close at 2357.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rose 55 cents, Gold slipped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls (est. +178K) at 8:30, wholesale inventories at 10am, then consumer credit at 3pm.
The market opened unchanged today, made a low at SPX 2349, then rallied to 2364 to reach just above unchanged on the week. Then the market pulled back. In the morning we posted an alternate short term count on the SPX daily chart, suggesting a Minor wave 3 uptrend high at 2401. The Minute wave iv triangle would have been difficult to decipher in real time. Other than that the count fits a five wave pattern from SPX 2084-2401.
Should this be the market’s count we see a Minor wave 4 downtrend underway. With initial support at the OEW 2270 and 2286 pivots for a 38.2% retracement, and solid support back at SPX 2234 for a 50% retracement. The market has been quite choppy for the past five weeks, since it made the all-time high. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day just above oversold. Trade what’s in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure
LONG TERM: uptrend