Monday update

SHORT TERM: flat open then decline, DOW -13

Overnight Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.6%. US index futures were flat overnight, and the market opened unchanged at SPX 2363. In the opening minutes the SPX rose to 2366 and then started to decline. At 10am ISM was reported lower: 57.2% v 57.7%, and construction spending was higher: 0.8% v -0.4%. The market continued to decline until it hit SPX 2345 around noon. After that it reversed and rallied to SPX 2360 by 3:30, just before a 2359 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.20%. Bonds gained 17 ticks, Crude slid 35 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: the trade deficit at 8:30, then factory orders at 10am.

The market opened flat today, bounced, and then headed down to SPX 2345. After that the market rallied to SPX 2360, in what appears to look like another volatile Monday. Should the market take out today’s low in the next day or so a downtrend is probably underway. Should the market take out today’s high, SPX 2366, in the next day or so it will have to deal with 2370 again. If that is cleared the uptrend will probably continue. Monday looks like a pivotal day range. Short term support is now at SPX 2345 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2370 and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum was extremely oversold at today’s low then bounced to neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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155 Responses to Monday update

  1. phil1247 says:


    BUD……………you are the spx close WINNER!

  2. micky says:

    it could even be busy with a second 1 and 2 as well

  3. phil1247 says:

    / CL

    took profits at 51.07

    will have to break short at 51.13 for me to get back in

  4. UPDATE: Looking more and more like a “dead-cat bounce” – new lows in the offing. Tomorrow will tell!

  5. phil1247 says:

    SPX close today


    you or anyone else
    has until 10 min before the close
    to make a pick

  6. Richard Glackin says:

    Folks, we have a diagonal with the last leg (‘e’ wave) heading down to about 2335 SPX. After that I’m thinking we head up in a wave 3.

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Don’t forget that in diagonals each of the five waves have three waves each. So this drop will be an ‘abc’. Further, by the time it gets to the bottom trend line, it will likely drop below 2335SPX.

      • H D says:

        interesting, I don’t see a diagonal but am charting a triangle. Defined by this weeks range. Same outcome.

        • Richard Glackin says:

          HD, With this descending diagonal I have the lower trend line (this is on ES) at 2353 and 2340 with the upper trend line at 2367 and 2356.

          • Richard Glackin says:

            On the SPX, there are too many missing waves to see it…the problem with using SPX for EW.

  7. H D says:

    AAPL- what a rally. great chart to watch this week. Respecting the fibs. From 1(34) traded down to (89) 52 week low, almost a year ago. Stuck at (144) now for 5 days. May provide the fuel either direction.

  8. micky says:

    still in scalp mode, gotta take profits when and if, nothing is sorted out yet. Corrective until no more.

  9. phil1247 says:

    pushed stops way up on UCO

    gotta go…. see U at UNU

  10. Anyone counting 2322-2364 wave 1
    2364-2353 2
    2353-2370 3
    2370-2346 4
    2346-? can only be 16 points since wave 3 was 17 point so max up move is 2362.

    Then a small decline and back up to 2380 or continue down> Just curious.


  11. vivelaamo says:

    Oil up indices up. Simple as.

  12. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Curious how you would count 5 minute waves to complete minor 3?
    Seems incomplete to me. Plus that 2411 Pivot is begging for a test.

  13. phil1247 says:


    face ripper squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze on tap

  14. phil1247 says:


    opened at uptrend line across highs

    stop is now just under 2354

    went lower after hours than i expected..
    thats why i dont like to hold overnite usually

  15. kvilia says:

    Learned, are you buying GDX? I missed the entry this time, trying to evaluate the next entry point.

    • When the 13d gets above the 34 is my next buy.Then above 25.60-80 would be my final installment.My first buy was when it got above 20d again.

      • Ira Epstein says buy GDX above 23.64 and gold above 1261 (should go to 1280 from 1261).Weekly 18d crossed over the 100–for him a bullish signal.I’m not trusting him too much yet on this,but adding it to my thinking.

      • kvilia says:

        Thanks, learned, a lot of indecision, and miners can still fall hard before ultimately starting their run. I am watching for now as most of the indicators are too high for me to buy now.

        • Agree,but ready to buy on a 2% up move on GdX today.Each day it stays bullish,I’ll add more.Sell if price acts poorly in relation to what I said about the 34d.Sell more if it drops below 20d and 10d.

  16. Futures keep declining. At some point, I fear they could overwhelm the cash market.

  17. vivelaamo says:

    It looks to me likes it’s all about oil. Everything seems to be noise.

  18. Hope someone can answer a chart question.Mr C’s stockchart for SPX daily has the 13 and 34 d averages at different levels than the actual chart for SPX daily (which shows the 13 has crossed UNDER the 34 already.The chart on Mr C’s site has the 13 still comfortably above the 34).Which one is correct?.Anyone have an explanation?Thanks.

  19. UPDATE: “Second chance” for market cycle bottom today. See my comment to Tommyboys below. –

  20. Hi,
    Tony,a drop below 20415 on the Dow can suggest 5 waves down,as the first wave was not overllapped?thanks

  21. Well NBC is beating the war drum tonight.Holt in South Korea and warning that the chances of war are increasing.With the Iraq war in the early 90s,stocks sold off in advance and then rocketed higher with the first US attack.So far,no sign of worry by equities.Mr C…what do you think?Of course all, opinions welcome.I’m guessing any contInued selloff will be related to Korea short term.

    • phil1247 says:

      news does not make the market

      other way around

      • Is that a new train of thought by you Phil?lI can’t believe you said’ll see what moves markets if it gets crazy over there.NBC news reminded me of the Fed in February,warning everyone they were raising rates in March.The networks are used just like this by the gov’t to prepare people for something.Just seemed very stark tonight,with military weighing in and all.

      • CampFreddie says:

        Phil – You can repeat that till your blue in the face, it seems it is a Lesson he will never Learn.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Trump will have to get some political victories first before even attempting to take down N.K.

      • fionamargaret says:

        ..there was the remark from Trump that he would be leaving any military decisions to his appointees…he wold be out of the loop…but then I worry too much…

        • bud67 says:

          IMO…..the only way there is a war in Korea, is if the North, moves south
          of the DMZ….otherwise. this is all chit-chat…

    • purplember says:

      Gee NBC trying to create drama…… didn’t see that coming

  22. We can observe declining triple tops on many indexes, etf’s, and mutual funds. We need to break above the the steeper, and then the more horizontal of the declining trendlines connecting these tops.
    Some one with a drawing capability please post an annotated chart.

  23. phil1247 says:

    long SPX
    from 2352 around 2pm
    bullish above 2351
    still counter trend but could blossom into something more
    short leash

    happy to show trade ticket to any doubting Thomases

  24. stormchaser80llc says:

    My proprietary Technicals Model lost some ground today and as back into negative territory as is the McClellan. The uptrend/bounce may be pausing or ending. Tough to tell with a lot of mixed signals in Breadth today. SPX Daily briefly touched its 50 dma, before a quick pop. Was this a bear trap before resumption in the uptrend? My signals operate at greater scale thus the whipsaw/ambiguity right now. Keep an eye on important price levels and trade carefully!

    Much more FREE analysis at my site ( However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

  25. aahmichael says:

    The last 12 hours of Bud’s life:

    bud67 says:
    April 3, 2017 at 4:33 am
    Yes, I stand corrected. The SP500 should make a nominal new price high, before
    defining a correction or, even retesting recent price lows below 2320…..

    bud67 says:
    April 3, 2017 at 11:11 am
    There is nothing Bullish about the current SP pattern.

    bud67 says:
    April 3, 2017 at 1:25 pm
    I do not look for the SP to break to new lows, rather.
    begin a new rally from roughly 2340 ish lelvel…So,
    I remain Bullish, looking for new price highs

    bud67 says:
    April 3, 2017 at 3:25 pm
    Despite, today’s rally, off the 2344 low. It does not appear to be a strong
    reversal signal to the upside. My BoYu signal remains in a “negative”

    bud67 says:
    April 3, 2017 at 4:14 pm
    and…my BoYu is still on a sell signal, too

    bud67 says:
    April 3, 2017 at 5:11 pm
    While the SP500 BoYu, remains in a Buy mode.

  26. bud67 says:

    While the SP500 BoYu, remains in a Buy mode. With today’s SP low of 2340,
    any further price weakness to 2240- 2332. Could, produce a Buy signal.Sooo..
    Going to suggest the OEW pivot of 2336 is “key” to a strong reversal up signal,
    yet to form though. Further — 2336 pivot should/ make for a rough long entry zone.
    Then….I look for the SP to take-off to the upside….in my opinion

  27. tommyboys says:

    Insiders buying last week…

  28. bud67 says:

    Quote…..odds favor a longer correction, which, when it’s complete, will lead to a rally
    that carries to a new high….from EWI 4/3

  29. blackjak100 says:

    Tc, is the group considering minor 4 is underway as a flat like soul and myself have suggested?

  30. bud67 says:

    Despite, today’s rally, off the 2344 low. It does not appear to be a strong
    reversal signal to the upside. My BoYu signal remains in a “negative”
    pattern, which. May, or May Not continue. A break of todays 2344 low,
    would tend to confirm this view. That a reversal to the upside, may not
    be a valid call.

  31. Thanks Tony. Let me ask have you ever considered that some type of ZigZag is underway? From 2401, I think you can make a case for 5 waves down. And you counted three waves up to 2370, leaving open the possibility for a 5 wave (bumpy) ride down. ?????

  32. llerias7 says:

    Tony, are you considering a failing micro V ? Otherwise still looking for spx 2400´s next(!?)

  33. UPDATE: “One-day reversal” after Monday market cycle bottom:

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