SHORT TERM: flat open then decline, DOW -13
Overnight Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.6%. US index futures were flat overnight, and the market opened unchanged at SPX 2363. In the opening minutes the SPX rose to 2366 and then started to decline. At 10am ISM was reported lower: 57.2% v 57.7%, and construction spending was higher: 0.8% v -0.4%. The market continued to decline until it hit SPX 2345 around noon. After that it reversed and rallied to SPX 2360 by 3:30, just before a 2359 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.20%. Bonds gained 17 ticks, Crude slid 35 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: the trade deficit at 8:30, then factory orders at 10am.
The market opened flat today, bounced, and then headed down to SPX 2345. After that the market rallied to SPX 2360, in what appears to look like another volatile Monday. Should the market take out today’s low in the next day or so a downtrend is probably underway. Should the market take out today’s high, SPX 2366, in the next day or so it will have to deal with 2370 again. If that is cleared the uptrend will probably continue. Monday looks like a pivotal day range. Short term support is now at SPX 2345 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2370 and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum was extremely oversold at today’s low then bounced to neutral. Trade what’s in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure
LONG TERM: uptrend