Friday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then choppy action, DOW -65

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 personal income (0.4% v 0.4%)/spending (0.1% v 0.2%) were reported higher, as was the PCE: 0.1% v 0.4%. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2368 close and began to move higher. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 57.7 v 57.4. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported lower: 96.9 v 97.8. By 1:30 the SPX had worked its way up to 2370, and then began to pullback. Just past 2pm the SPX hit 2364, rallied back to 2370 by 3:30, then closed at 2363.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.05%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude added 35 cents, Gold rose $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 57.9% v 58.8%, and the Q1 GDP estimate was lower to 0.9% v 1.0%.

Thee market opened lower today, which it has done nearly the entire week. Made a low in the first half hour of trading, and then worked its way higher for the rest of the day. Exactly as it has done the entire week. Overnight futures selling and during the day cash buying. We are still counting three waves up from Monday’s SPX 2322 low: 2364-2353-2370. Over the past two days the SPX has hit 2370 four times and stalled. Clearly a favored short term resistance area. Some interesting observations in the weekend update, in regard to the short term count and the medium term trend. Worth the read. Will be posting on Sunday a long-term fundamental perspective on the purchasing power of the USD, and potentially how to fix it. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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56 Responses to Friday update

  1. Richard Glackin says:

    Thursday evening shortly after the market close, I posted a ‘heads up’ that the market was not looking good. That’s because it became apparent that a corrective ABC had already started. Since then, we’ve had an (abc) ‘A’ wave down, a ‘B’ wave up and, have begun the ‘C’ wave down. If this turns out to be a typical 5 wave ‘C’ wave, we’re looking at a pretty decent drop. Going by the fibs here’s the possibles for the pull back;
    0.382 2348ES
    0.500 2342ES
    0.618 2337ES
    IF and I repeat, IF, that is the extent of a wave 2 pullback, then wave 3 should begin.
    On the other hand, if this turns out to be a higher degree wave pullback, a much bigger drop is in the cards. Good luck all.

  2. micky says:

    The FTSE has indeed completed its move up from 7250 to 7380, I have a few supports on the way with max 3rd at the 7270 area at this stage. If it was a LD up it could retrace deep. As long as the low at 7250 holds it should make higher highs after the retracement is over.

  3. torehund says:

    Abcde or C1,C2, C3 done on the Rut.

  4. Thank you TC. Happy Friday.

    • fionamargaret says:

      • fionamargaret says:

        I do enjoy Colin Twiggs not only for an Australian perspective, but also the quotes he chooses…today Mr. Micawber…..
        In the US Supreme Court opinion of Bell Atlantic Corp. v Trombly, Justice Souter criticized the court for an approach to pleading that “would dispense with any showing of a reasonably founded hope that a plaintiff would be able to make a case, Mr. Micawber’s optimism would be enough”…nice that Dickens is still necessary as a reference….x

      • fionamargaret says:

        Bell v Twombly is an interesting case study Dickens notwithstanding.
        This decision involving civil procedure and antitrust law heightened the pleading requirements for Federal civil cases.
        It met with a great deal of controversy in legal circles, evidenced by the dissenting opinion from justice Paul Stevens.

    • Fiona: Thanks for the McClellan post. I think I must have missed your e-mini link, but I will bookmark the ones abc left for me after I open them

  5. Jim B. says:

    Everyone knows that the FED is not supposed to participate in equities markets. Rumor has it that there is a chimp tied to a chair in the FED basement that is used to purchase or sell S&P futures. Of course the chimp cant technically be considered as part of the Fed so its legally ok. This chimp gets a shock at crucial pivots points and is trained to hit the buy or sell button. He has been hitting the “buy” button since he was brought into action in 2013. The FED has been told that it’s time for Trump to take a fall. That chimp is now getting a shock at each hit of 2370 and it is hitting the “sell” button. No reason to be long under 2430. Don’t fight the chimp.

  6. torehund says:

    Good weekend Tony and all contributors/viewers. Tiny 2s mania on the Rut from bottom March 27. Lets SEE what Tony has figured out tomorrow.

  7. Tara says:

    Look forward to the weekend goodies,Tony. Thanks so much.

  8. blackjak100 says:

    Assuming this is a large flat forming from2501 where A=2322, then B is in full swing. I’d like to see a min 38.2% retrace of 2322-2370 (a of B) to 2352ish (b of B). Pretzel out a nice chart today. Do you see why 2352 is a very real possibility on mon????

  9. Page says:

    Thanks Tony. Have a good weekend.

  10. Good tease for the WU.I wasn’t going to read it for the first time in a couple years,but you lured me back.(Kidding…would’ve checked it out–as always).Thanks.

  11. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al for the excellent daily OEW updates this week; look forward to the weekend reports.

  12. lunker1 says:

    SPX closed below Tony’s wave 1 top 2364 so wave 2 would have to be irregular right?

  13. bhuggs52 says:

    Gracias por todo amigo mio Tony. Today was a good day, liquidating a weekly RUT long. I look much forward to the WU.

  14. What is an “extension short”? Also, I typed in TF on stockcharts, and it did not recognize the symbol. Same with YM. TF is supposed to be the R2K e-mini symbol.

  15. greggw2gs says:

    Thanks as always Tony

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