SHORT TERM: lower open then choppy action, DOW -65
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 personal income (0.4% v 0.4%)/spending (0.1% v 0.2%) were reported higher, as was the PCE: 0.1% v 0.4%. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2368 close and began to move higher. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 57.7 v 57.4. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported lower: 96.9 v 97.8. By 1:30 the SPX had worked its way up to 2370, and then began to pullback. Just past 2pm the SPX hit 2364, rallied back to 2370 by 3:30, then closed at 2363.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.05%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude added 35 cents, Gold rose $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 57.9% v 58.8%, and the Q1 GDP estimate was lower to 0.9% v 1.0%.
Thee market opened lower today, which it has done nearly the entire week. Made a low in the first half hour of trading, and then worked its way higher for the rest of the day. Exactly as it has done the entire week. Overnight futures selling and during the day cash buying. We are still counting three waves up from Monday’s SPX 2322 low: 2364-2353-2370. Over the past two days the SPX has hit 2370 four times and stalled. Clearly a favored short term resistance area. Some interesting observations in the weekend update, in regard to the short term count and the medium term trend. Worth the read. Will be posting on Sunday a long-term fundamental perspective on the purchasing power of the USD, and potentially how to fix it. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
Thursday evening shortly after the market close, I posted a ‘heads up’ that the market was not looking good. That’s because it became apparent that a corrective ABC had already started. Since then, we’ve had an (abc) ‘A’ wave down, a ‘B’ wave up and, have begun the ‘C’ wave down. If this turns out to be a typical 5 wave ‘C’ wave, we’re looking at a pretty decent drop. Going by the fibs here’s the possibles for the pull back;
0.382 2348ES
0.500 2342ES
0.618 2337ES
IF and I repeat, IF, that is the extent of a wave 2 pullback, then wave 3 should begin.
On the other hand, if this turns out to be a higher degree wave pullback, a much bigger drop is in the cards. Good luck all.
Tony, looking forward to your weekend post. Thanks.
The FTSE has indeed completed its move up from 7250 to 7380, I have a few supports on the way with max 3rd at the 7270 area at this stage. If it was a LD up it could retrace deep. As long as the low at 7250 holds it should make higher highs after the retracement is over.
Traditional chartists would say the Dow is now busy with an inverse H&S right shoulder
Abcde or C1,C2, C3 done on the Rut.
RSI headed toward 90 + this time around, no ?
Tony what do you think of my “home made count”, its no April 1st joke either 🔓
it looks like Neowave 😉
Thank you TC. Happy Friday.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/lumber_and_eurodollars_a_curious_intermarket_relationship/
Thanks Tom McClellan
http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/
Thanks Colin Twiggs
Thanks to Tony, and everyone..xx
I do enjoy Colin Twiggs not only for an Australian perspective, but also the quotes he chooses…today Mr. Micawber…..
In the US Supreme Court opinion of Bell Atlantic Corp. v Trombly, Justice Souter criticized the court for an approach to pleading that “would dispense with any showing of a reasonably founded hope that a plaintiff would be able to make a case, Mr. Micawber’s optimism would be enough”…nice that Dickens is still necessary as a reference….x
Bell v Twombly is an interesting case study Dickens notwithstanding.
This decision involving civil procedure and antitrust law heightened the pleading requirements for Federal civil cases.
It met with a great deal of controversy in legal circles, evidenced by the dissenting opinion from justice Paul Stevens.
Fiona: Thanks for the McClellan post. I think I must have missed your e-mini link, but I will bookmark the ones abc left for me after I open them
From what I understand George, this gentleman on e-mini addict explains a system….here is a link….hope you have a nice weekend…
http://eminiaddict.com/
George, have you thought of taking Tony’s course….I am sure the questions you ask are relevant to his method…and he does take his time with every pupil….
Yes, I have thought of it but haven’t pulled the trigger.
Everyone knows that the FED is not supposed to participate in equities markets. Rumor has it that there is a chimp tied to a chair in the FED basement that is used to purchase or sell S&P futures. Of course the chimp cant technically be considered as part of the Fed so its legally ok. This chimp gets a shock at crucial pivots points and is trained to hit the buy or sell button. He has been hitting the “buy” button since he was brought into action in 2013. The FED has been told that it’s time for Trump to take a fall. That chimp is now getting a shock at each hit of 2370 and it is hitting the “sell” button. No reason to be long under 2430. Don’t fight the chimp.
https://reaganlibrary.archives.gov/archives/speeches/1988/031888d.htm
Never knew that an ‘executive order’ allowed gov market manipulation. TY, TC. That should snuff out many chimps and rumors.
Good grief Tony…now THAT was an eye opener! And, it explains a lot.
now that is entertaining. it’s stuff like this that keeps me coming back
Figures…Reagan starred in a “Bonzo” movie,with a chimp.That’s probably Bonzo’s grandson at the controls in the Fed basement.Explains the 1987 crash also.
Good weekend Tony and all contributors/viewers. Tiny 2s mania on the Rut from bottom March 27. Lets SEE what Tony has figured out tomorrow.
https://www.investing.com/indices/smallcap-2000-futures
Look at the 1H chart from 27 th of March, stacked 2s…
Look forward to the weekend goodies,Tony. Thanks so much.
Assuming this is a large flat forming from2501 where A=2322, then B is in full swing. I’d like to see a min 38.2% retrace of 2322-2370 (a of B) to 2352ish (b of B). Pretzel out a nice chart today. Do you see why 2352 is a very real possibility on mon????
Thanks Tony. Have a good weekend.
Good tease for the WU.I wasn’t going to read it for the first time in a couple years,but you lured me back.(Kidding…would’ve checked it out–as always).Thanks.
Thank you Tony et al for the excellent daily OEW updates this week; look forward to the weekend reports.
SPX closed below Tony’s wave 1 top 2364 so wave 2 would have to be irregular right?
pullback too short to be counted so far
Tony to clarify if this pullback stays too short to be counted per OEW it can go below 2364 and not be a four into one violation?
right 4th waves do not drop below 1st waves
when they do they are not 4th waves
2364-2353-2370-2363
Maybe yesterday’s 2370 high was Nano-i and now Nano-ii is in progress…?
That’s kind of what I was going with yesterday HD’s count but Tony is only counting three waves up
Gracias por todo amigo mio Tony. Today was a good day, liquidating a weekly RUT long. I look much forward to the WU.
What is an “extension short”? Also, I typed in TF on stockcharts, and it did not recognize the symbol. Same with YM. TF is supposed to be the R2K e-mini symbol.
/ YM
Thanks.
/YM is not a valid symbol, either.
YM = Mini Dow futures contracts
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/YM*0/all-futures
TF = Russell 2000 futures contracts
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/RJ*0/all-futures
StockCharts.com doesn’t list every futures contracts, just a selection:
https://stockcharts.com/articles/mailbag/2013/05/which-futures-contracts-can-i-chart-at-stockchartscom.html
hey Phil, write a quick tutorial if you get some downtime!
Thanks 123 x
Merci beaucoup, ABC.
Phil, please help out George with his questions.
I did suggest his asking for your help….I posted the e-mini site, but I think you have to fill in the blanks…thanks.
Thanks, Fiona. But I need to look at the links abc sent before I ask for more help. I am not a Futures trader but it exasperates me not to know what OEW posters are talking about. But, if I learn enough, it may may sense to try my hand at it.
may make sense
George if you want to learn Phils methods use the site. Take the 7 day trial and even subscribe for a month or 2 as there so much to learn. I have and have learnt a lot. I would not recommend trying to trade this way based on the odd posts on this site as you will not be able to use the methods correctly without completely understanding it. Phil seems like a good guy but I think he is here to talk about his trading, not to teach people his methods.
Phil should get commission from DH.
Who is DH?
Dog House
http://eminiaddict.com/
This is the method Phil uses to success. I think DH is the gentleman who owns the site.
Do ask Phil for the details, as I think you can get a free video each day.
Let Phil know what you don’t understand and ask for his help.
Daniel Halsey. http://eminiaddict.com
The symbols for futures contracts may vary depending on your trading platform. /ES, /YM are ThinkOrSwim platform symbols. Also, if you don’t have futures trading option set up, you may not be able to access the quotes, again depending on your broker.
Thanks as always Tony