Thursday update

SHORT TERM: recent rally resumes, DOW +69

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 Q4 GDP was reported higher: 2.1% v 1.9%, and weekly jobless claims were reported unchanged at 258K. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2361, dipped to 2359 in the opening minutes, and then started to rally. At 11am the SPX hit 2370, pulled back to 2363 by 12:30, then turned higher again. At 2:30 the SPX retouched 2370, then dipped to close at 2368.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude rose 85 cents, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: personal income/spending and the PCE at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened unchanged today, dipped, and then took out Tuesday’s SPX 2364 high on its way to 2370. With the NDX making new highs, many indices improving, and Crude back over $50, it looks like Micro 5, to new highs, is underway [2322]: 2364-2353-2370. Short term support remains in the SPX 2350’s and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum continues to remain around overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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102 Responses to Thursday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    So who thinks we will go down more next week except Newbie of course Im waiting for the DT to work


  2. vivelaamo says:

    Pump that bad boy about 2371 for a nice close to the month.


  3. phil1247 says:


    daily extension short about to break at 50.71

    if so face ripping squeeeeeeeeeeeze up to 53.48 possible


  4. vivelaamo says:

    I miss Newbie. Hope he didn’t go crazy shorting


    • vivelaamo

      Read your post on the Russell (below), I am assuming you are talking about the futures, TF. If yes, David Halsey always states, be careful about your entries into short/long positions as they can brake 50% and 61.8% retracements. Need to follow the ES futures for confirmation of the trend in TF.

      For example, if ES is declining and has a few points to fall before a 50% long entry…the TF futures could continue to fall and breach a 61.8% long retracement. The probability of TF reversing “trend” and rallying is if ES tests and more importunately, defends, the 50% long.
      The converse is true as well. My point being YM and TF follows the ES.


      • vivelaamo says:

        Thanks for the post. I think ES will break above the 61.8% of March pb by close. But you are right. Need to be careful trading the Russel.


        • In my opinion, today’s battle will be at ES 2346.50. That is opening level for ES on March 1. If ES closes below this level, it will be the first negative monthly close since the election. I have no doubt that around 3:55 EST, we will see a stick save by the powers at be. Whether that’s from Yellens traders and the big boys. Just my .02


          • Sorry, the battle is at ES 2364.50


          • phil1247 says:

            in YOUR opinion…??

            or in david halseys opinion ???
            this is word for word what he said in his video this am


          • Vishal says:

            Yes, DH been repeating that over and over again for last few days.
            my 2c
            A close at or below 2363-2365 on SPX .. might just open the floodgates next week


          • Hi phil1247…enjoy your posts….

            Combination of my opinion and mostly from DH (did credit DH in the first post)…sounds familiar?..LOL

            Today’s gap and a previous technical level is also at 2364.50. I didn’t mention that because most people don’t follow DH terminology about the significance of trading with not against the gap fill. As far as closing above 2364.50 since that is the GAP is quite common for the markets to rise after 3:30 and turn a red day into a green close. Happens all the time.

            Hope this help….


  5. vivelaamo says:

    So we ending the month where we started. Many will say that bearish. Considering the gains we have had since November I would say it’s very bullish!


  6. captbara says:

    Cleveland Cavaliers must be in C of wave 2.


    • purplember says:

      hope they crash. lebron is everything wrong with today’s youth. if you don’t win title, quit on your team/coaches/fans and join team of all-stars. each time he joined a team with more all-stars than previous team.


  7. phil1247 says:

    sold spx longs 2369

    need convincing break above 2371 to get back in


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