Thursday update

SHORT TERM: recent rally resumes, DOW +69

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 Q4 GDP was reported higher: 2.1% v 1.9%, and weekly jobless claims were reported unchanged at 258K. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2361, dipped to 2359 in the opening minutes, and then started to rally. At 11am the SPX hit 2370, pulled back to 2363 by 12:30, then turned higher again. At 2:30 the SPX retouched 2370, then dipped to close at 2368.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.25%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude rose 85 cents, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: personal income/spending and the PCE at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market opened unchanged today, dipped, and then took out Tuesday’s SPX 2364 high on its way to 2370. With the NDX making new highs, many indices improving, and Crude back over $50, it looks like Micro 5, to new highs, is underway [2322]: 2364-2353-2370. Short term support remains in the SPX 2350’s and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum continues to remain around overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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102 Responses to Thursday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    So who thinks we will go down more next week except Newbie of course Im waiting for the DT to work

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Pump that bad boy about 2371 for a nice close to the month.

  3. phil1247 says:

    /CLM7

    daily extension short about to break at 50.71

    if so face ripping squeeeeeeeeeeeze up to 53.48 possible

  4. vivelaamo says:

    I miss Newbie. Hope he didn’t go crazy shorting

    • vivelaamo

      Read your post on the Russell (below), I am assuming you are talking about the futures, TF. If yes, David Halsey always states, be careful about your entries into short/long positions as they can brake 50% and 61.8% retracements. Need to follow the ES futures for confirmation of the trend in TF.

      For example, if ES is declining and has a few points to fall before a 50% long entry…the TF futures could continue to fall and breach a 61.8% long retracement. The probability of TF reversing “trend” and rallying is if ES tests and more importunately, defends, the 50% long.
      The converse is true as well. My point being YM and TF follows the ES.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Thanks for the post. I think ES will break above the 61.8% of March pb by close. But you are right. Need to be careful trading the Russel.

        • In my opinion, today’s battle will be at ES 2346.50. That is opening level for ES on March 1. If ES closes below this level, it will be the first negative monthly close since the election. I have no doubt that around 3:55 EST, we will see a stick save by the powers at be. Whether that’s from Yellens traders and the big boys. Just my .02

          • Sorry, the battle is at ES 2364.50

          • phil1247 says:

            in YOUR opinion…??

            or in david halseys opinion ???
            this is word for word what he said in his video this am

            • Vishal says:

              Yes, DH been repeating that over and over again for last few days.
              my 2c
              A close at or below 2363-2365 on SPX .. might just open the floodgates next week

            • Hi phil1247…enjoy your posts….

              Combination of my opinion and mostly from DH (did credit DH in the first post)…sounds familiar?..LOL

              Today’s gap and a previous technical level is also at 2364.50. I didn’t mention that because most people don’t follow DH terminology about the significance of trading with not against the gap fill. As far as closing above 2364.50 since that is the GAP is quite common for the markets to rise after 3:30 and turn a red day into a green close. Happens all the time.

              Hope this help….

  5. vivelaamo says:

    So we ending the month where we started. Many will say that bearish. Considering the gains we have had since November I would say it’s very bullish!

  6. captbara says:

    Cleveland Cavaliers must be in C of wave 2.

    • purplember says:

      hope they crash. lebron is everything wrong with today’s youth. if you don’t win title, quit on your team/coaches/fans and join team of all-stars. each time he joined a team with more all-stars than previous team.

  7. phil1247 says:

    sold spx longs 2369

    need convincing break above 2371 to get back in

  8. blackjak100 says:

    NYAD new ATH today

  9. phil1247 says:

    Tore

    bonds refuse to go down thru targets …………

    ready to take profits on TBT

    you holding tbt?

  10. bhuggs52 says:

    My TNA position is working just fine for me, somewhat better than my SPX long. With the RUT leading the way, I have a 67.675% confidence that we may be completing a wave 5 up in the coming month of April and may likely see our near-term top arrive at the point that Trump and his erstwhile collection of Capitol Hill reds attempt to hammer our a debt ceiling reboot. Everything may work outaccording to plan. Meanwhile, the pasture grass and other things are quite succulently green out here in Mendonesia.

  11. vivelaamo says:

    Phil the series of longs have been working perfect on the Russell since the bottom.

  12. Atl GDP down to .9 again.Okay,I’m out of here.I’m thinking with TLT looking flat today,Monday will be first of the month stock buying spree.Bonds sell,gold is questionable because of its embedded status.The dollar is steady today with lousy spending…should have sold off.Ahhh if I was king…lol.We’d have REAL markets.Good luck all.

  13. .1 increase in spending?Good thing the consumer confidence is so high or we’d already be in recession.Atlanta GDP should be interesting.

    • Dudley comes out to say…”2 rate hikes seems reasonable.”Yes,for a country that’s growing at 4%.Algos must have been programmed to look at everything in an optimistic way.All these jobs we’re supposedly creating and no spending.Lol.Interest rates going up for houses and credit cards are going to help that?Ehhhh,no.

      • phil1247 says:

        learned

        listening to feb babble is a waste of time

        fed does not determine rates

        they will do what the market tells them when the market tells them

        FED FOLLOWS…it does not lead

        Even a former Fed chairman says as much. On Sept. 17, 2007, Alan Greenspan was asked by CNBC if he kept “interest rates too low for too long” in 2002-2003, he replied, “the market did.”

        Even then, that’s what we had been telling our subscribers all along.

        Less than three weeks before that Greenspan interview, our September 2007 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, which published on Aug. 30, 2007, showed this chart and said:

        • phil1247 says:

          http://www.elliottwave.com/Interest-Rates/Heres-the-Real-Reason-the-Fed-is-Raising-Rates

          the last 3 paragraphs are from the article..chart wouldnt show so i posted the whole thing from EWI

        • The Fed is inept.Because “W” wanted fake prosperity,he ordered rates to be kept low and houses to be given to unqualified buyers.The Fed complied with the low rates.Greenspan will never admit he screwed up.The current Fed is only worried about where the dollar is trading.Economic forecasting and reaction to data is not their focus or forte.The more I see of the Fed,the more I realize they’re perpetrating a con job–and they’re just con men (and women).

          • Plus the algos listen.That’s the important thing.

          • phil1247 says:

            ok learned

            you are obviously only interested in conspiracy theories and not facts

            good luck

            • tony caldaro says:

              Facts about the FED
              Prior to Volcker achieving FED independence from political agendas, and stabilizing the inflationary bubble created by Nixon, the economy had experienced 12 recessions in 50 years. About one economic downturn every 4+ years.
              Since the early-1980’s there have been only 3 recessions in the past 35 years,
              The FED is smarter than we think …
              https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GNPA

              • Maybe because bonds don’t sell off anymore?They don’t get high enough in yield to cauae a recession?Of course when we get them,they’re bubble popping doozies–the price of artificially supressing yields.Just the way it is.

              • phil1247 says:

                Tony
                do you agree or disagree
                that the fed follows the market
                and raises rates when the market dictates

              • tony caldaro says:

                Long term yields will hit 8% again in the decades ahead, has nothing to do with the FED.
                The FED follows the market for short term rates.

              • vivelaamo says:

                Lerned do your opinions of the fed help your trading? Be honest.

              • phil1247 says:

                tony…………disagree

                i am looking for slightly over 10% on the 10 year yield…..

                dollar collapse
                massive inflation
                and debt crisis on the way

              • Sure.The markets are controlled.Stocks to the upside,bond rates kept low,dollar in a range,gold has a cap on it.I invest off that scenario until it changes.

              • purplember says:

                i wouldn’t say FED is any smarter – just manipulate more. FED said in 2007 we weren’t headed for a recession. business cycles go up and down – the fed refuses to the let the down cycle CLEANSE or get rid of bad business models / bad debt gone etc…. as they try to “prop” things up.

                it’s not healthy long term in my opinion.

        • Richard Glackin says:

          Phil is absolutely correct…I saw a study a couple years ago where, it showed the FED never let the way regarding interest rates. The market moves rates (up or down) the FED follows…always.

  14. kingfrogcash says:

    End of good Qtr. This afternoon could be ugly.

  15. dan pulford says:

    Futures like the economic data at 8:30 AM EST. Green day.

  16. flat open close up plus 10. enjoy your weekend all

  17. nyjsec314 says:

    Tlt finally Showing inverse relationship and the spx looks strong. Liking this market.

  18. micky says:

    es retrace got to vst 2nd support, usually a small trend reversal, will see

  19. vivelaamo says:

    Once we make new all time highs I might sell all longs and take a break. Been a stressful month.

  20. STEPHEN BARTLETT says:

    Looking like a monthly Doji. This months high the exact 100% extension of the strongest bar from the 2008 advance to the low mirrored higher and the likely close the 100% extension of wave a=g. Wave a was 14 months. Wave g closes out today at 14 months. Waves a-g is a Neely diametric although I don’t believe he has my count,
    Next month is pivotal and will set the trend for the rest of the year.
    If we start selling off that’s the top. Conversely through 2430 I see nothing negative. Tony’s idea of 3000 likely to be correct.

  21. Overnight futures down again. What a pain in the neck this wave is.

  22. cj32 says:

    Cr CBZ

  23. Very possible GDX starts a 15-20% move down from here.Lower bb(21.00)or more.Bust the 20d(which looks likely)and you get what happened twice last year.Might be too late already.13 d never did get above the 34.Gold still embedded…the only good sign.How long that lasts (as he looks at his watch)is the question.Good luck all.

    • Part 2:The only way I can see that happening,is TLT–which lost the embedded stochastic for the first time today,regains that..Supposed to be an Atlanta GDP update tomorrow.If TLT rallies back what it lost Thursday and GDX MIGHT follow–and POSSIBLY save the day.Goldfingers crossed as always.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Tara requested I take a look at Toscanini’s work, and I am so glad I did.
      After initially going into the archives, I became more and more enthusiastic…what an interesting, gifted, complex man with music in his bones.
      She sounded so passionate when writing about him, and having most of his work, I find myself wondering if there is a connection….
      Thank you anyways Tara …you found a good musician to be passionate about..

      • fionamargaret says:

        “It ain’t over ’till your heart says Goodbye” sung by Dorothy Moore (with an interesting backup a la old Mahalia Jackson) plus more ramblings on Wednesday Update….x

  24. Tony, what is your count/labeling on the trip down from 2401? A,B,C punctuated by lesser counts?

  25. UPDATE: Rut leading now in channel, riding the 34 sma upwards:
    Russell 2000 hourly futures –

  26. Last market cycle bottom for a while next (Monday-)Tuesday. After that it’s off to the races!

  27. torehund says:

    Pivotal moments both for the bots and the rest of us. Is the dollar going along with tbt or is it another fake. Oil in late season can it build on the motive looking first wave for bottom or be quenched by an Euro decline. Is Btk going to 10 000 ditching all the real economy players. Are the volcano firings making it so gnarly that BDI goes to 24 000. Wish I knew, but feel something out of the extreme is upon us sooner rather than later.

  28. lunker1 says:
    March 30, 2017 at 12:29 pm
    George you said similar yesterday and up another six points today with little retracement and almost 50 points from the low. How is that fizzle?
    Reply
    egeorgeschaeffer says:
    March 30, 2017 at 2:33 pm
    When I made the comment, the DJIA gain had decreased from a +70 to a +20. I am still long on QTEC at an average price of 57.93. I have held a mid-cap growth fund in my 401K. since March 2009. The market seems to be surprisingly shifting towards small-cap value from large-cap growth, which is making me nervous about QTEC (NDX etf). That is one reason why I am watching this wave so closely and critically. My small profits on QTEC could evaporate in a day or two of sharp selling. I am thinking of selling my highest price shares of QTEC and replacing them with IWN (small-cap value), or just reducing the size of my swing trade position. The market did close with some power today while the $NDX could quickly regain its relative strength. The weekly NYSE A-D line closed at an ATH today, which augurs well for the continuation of the rally.

  29. Thanks Tony. We lost a total of 79 points as measured from 2401 and today we recovered exactly 61.8% at today’s high of 2370 and change.

    We also put in a double 4 hour top, making me think we may see a pause tomorrow as double 4 hours are fairly strong but not as strong a daily doubles.

    And on the hourly charts, as you mention, the market appears overbought. Separately, the McClellan oscillator for the SPX finally turned positive (barely) indicating the amount of structural damage this lengthy PB inflicted. https://www.tradingview.com/x/vgc01vBY/

  30. lunker1 says:

    Tony I’m curious what your thoughts are on HD’s chart he posted late this afternoon on yesterday’s update? It shows a standard Elliott wave count that looks clear as a bell since 2322. Do you only think in terms of OEW or does his count give you something to consider?

  31. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/VgX97x?image

    public service announcement

    i certainly hope everyone is doing their own homework
    regarding buying and selling

    i make about 8 to 10 trades a day
    so do not assume that what i post at 10 am is valid 30 minutes later
    i have no problem trading counter to the daily trend which is bearish below 2371 spx
    but i am not hanging around if it doesnt do exactly what i expect ( see chart)
    so what im doing in the 15 min time frame
    may be the opposite of the daily time frame

    in summary…

    use my posts as an adjunct to your own methods
    but dont blindly follow me or anyone else

  32. micky says:

    My tool is pointing to the high 90,s right now, which can change of course, but so far it is what it is.

  33. bfquant says:

    TC. When upgrading back to ‘uptrend’ , Is the retracement from Monday’s leg lower more or less important than the nasdaq making new highs. Did both or neither of those things have to occur to upgrade?

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