Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then rebound, DOW -42

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2359 close. In the opening minutes the market ticked down to SPX 2353, then rallied to 2362 by 11am. At 10am pending home sales were reported higher: 5.5% v -2.8%. Then after a pullback to SPX 2356 by 11:30 the market started to work its way higher. Around 3pm the SPX hit its high for the day at 2363, then ticked down to close at 2361.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds gained 8 ticks, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold added $3, and the USD was higher too. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP final (est. 2.0%) and weekly jobless claims at 8:30.

The market opened lower today, then rebounded for the rest of the day. After nearly two days of rally, from SPX 2322-2264, today looks like a consolidation day. The next market objective, to keep this rally going, would be to challenge the 2385 pivot. So far this rally looks like two waves [2322]: 2364-2353, with possibly the third wave underway. Short term support is in the mid-2350’s and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum remained around overbought for most of the day. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend rebounding

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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104 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    Can you believe just a week a go the Newbies were out in fall force calling for further drops. Now we are a few points away from a short term trend reversal and closer to all time highs then bearish targets. As Phil warned us. It’s a Salami market!!!

  2. Jim B. says:

    time to short this pig with a tight stop

    • micky says:

      I cannot argue with you there, as my gadget gave me a second target from the 2352 low of 2370, very short term, but if that high is surpassed there is a way to go to the 3rd target, which I don’t have yet as it is time dependant too. GL with the pig.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Good luck. Worth a scalp

  3. torehund says:

    LO-kongressen at Rut, is that diminishing order 2s back from 27 of March, soon building into a squeeze ?

  4. 2400 by Monday, Squeeze.

  5. micky says:

    Hi Richard G, what time do you expect the weakness to really kick in?

  6. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPX ~ +55/89 @ 2377/2411 (OEW Pivot 2411)
    Looking at the way back machine, many 5th looked like 1 wave, small PB’s.
    GL All

  7. tommyboys says:

    RUT leading higher today – HOD now…

  8. phil1247 says:

    SPX

    nothing has changed

    bearish below 2371

    target 2303

    • vivelaamo says:

      Was always going to hold first attempt. Will be above by end of week.

    • fionamargaret says:

      ..how about DB at 2343….

      • fionamargaret says:

        “…how about DB at 2343…”
        Let’s parse the wordage….was it a remark, a question, or a suggestion?
        Did I mean DB (the bank) at 23.43, or Double Bottom at 2343.
        Of course anyone can wriggle out of a statement that is not going their way, but that is not what honour and integrity are all about…so let’s just see what happens tomorrow…
        I will tell you a couple of pertinent details…remember I gave you the algo for oil quite a few times (47-51).. actually shy of 51…. like right about now….so if oil sells off…..
        Remember when Tony slipped a little trampoline on 2321…..well I slipped a magnet on 2343, so of course it will get back there and sit…remember this is not fibonacci it is magic.
        But do bail if things don’t go our way….I do care about you all x

    • lunker1 says:

      ? SPX is above your 2363 pivot?

      • phil1247 says:

        midday low was 2363.15

        that is the ACTUAL number of the phfill PIVOT

        just a coincidence i guess 😉

        • phil1247 says:

          yes …i did buy there

          how could i not ?

          • phil1247 says:

            it was also the .618 level of a 15 min long
            that has a target of 2373…..which would break the short at 2371

          • aahmichael says:

            Since I know that lots of people on this board follow your trades religiously, then why did you post the following, 10 minutes after you got long at 2363.15?

            phil1247 says:
            March 30, 2017 at 11:51 am
            SPX
            nothing has changed
            bearish below 2371
            target 2303

            • phil1247 says:

              ah michel

              anyone reading my posts should be aware
              that just because there is a bearish below daily short at 2371 spx

              that will not stop me from making intra day long trades where i see an opportunity

              also everyone should be doing their own homework
              because a trade that i post at
              10 am could already be gone and reversed at 1015 am

              i am going to trade both sides
              and not let my profits disappear
              like so called money managers like to do

              • phil1247 says:

                Please do not respond to my posts

                you will not be getting any more responses from me in the future

    • micky says:

      phew! thanks, that sounds a lot better than melt up and collapse Phil. Just kidding buddy.

  9. Sizzle has turned to fizzle at this point today. We

    • lunker1 says:

      George you said similar yesterday and up another six points today with little retracement and almost 50 points from the low. How is that fizzle?

      • When I made the comment, the DJIA gain had decreased from a +90 to a +20. I am still long, but The reluctance of this move to follow up strongly on Tuesday’s gains is making me nervous. I need the NDX to put more distance between me and the purchase price of my QTEC swing trade.

  10. Dollar up as I mused.Rally coming(to 100.80 min).Gold and GDX and I see it coming.By all rights,when the 18d crosses the 100 as DXY just did (as rarely as it happens),should be a bearish trend changer.A lot of cross currents right now. Gold is still bullishly embedded over 85,so something is a fake out.I’ll stick with the dollar rally,gold selloff scenario.Btw,Ira says watch gold weekly-if 18 week crosses 100 week.He says that would be a huge boost to gold.Off to do other stuff.Later.

  11. PHIL: WHERE DO WE CLOSE TODAY?

  12. vivelaamo says:

    So close to full on BTD mode.

    Where’s Newbie gone?

  13. Curious that the Nasdaq isn’t up 50 points.I took a quick look at the daily,and it seems like some kind of rounding top (the kind that precedes 3-5% corrections)is forming.A jump above 5928 would cancel that.Just something I noticed.

  14. purplember says:

    CBO pretty amazing they pounding the table and making bold statements regarding USA debt and it’s impact on US growth. Yes this is a concern but it’s odd when Obama ran up $9 trillion or $128 million per HOUR for 8 years, they never said anything.

    • tony caldaro says:

      makes you wonder about their recent healthcare numbers
      everything is sooo political

      • purplember says:

        CBO scored Obamacare as really good bill so they lost credibility. i was promised $2500 reduction in healthcare. My premiums went up 64% last year = $21,000 per year. that’s alot of $$$. btw the insurance doesn’t even cover my doctor bill should i get sick as i have $5,000 deductible.

        both parties need to lock themselves in room and do bill that is BEST for Americans.

        • tommyboys says:

          That’s because you’re paying for the 20M “new” HC recipients that never had it prior. Obama put the full load on the middle class socializing care and calling it ‘fair’. Left has always hated the middle class and doing everything they can to destroy it – gulp!

          • mcgcapital says:

            I’m no expert on this but isn’t the problem that the actual cost in the US is far higher than elsewhere in the world? http://dpeaflcio.org/programs-publications/issue-fact-sheets/the-u-s-health-care-system-an-international-perspective/

            I don’t know how this breaks down but would assume that US healthcare professionals earn significantly more. It would probably be cheaper to make healthcare universal for all and paid for by the government like the NHS in the U.K, but with some checks and balances. At the end of the day, even ignoring the human aspect and looking at economics the economy will be more productive if the population is healthier and that benefits everyone. From the outside looking in it just seems a bit backward for the world’s largest economy to have these issues

        • vivelaamo says:

          You pay $21,000 a year!! Many in the U.K. dont even earn that in a year.

          • purplember says:

            Vive, this isn’t just me but many in USA. My wife and i are both business owners so we have to sign up to Obamacare. 5 years ago i was paying $500 month. Tommyboys nailed it – i’m paying for all the UNhealthy people who joined or didn’t have healthcare. if your poor, you pay $0 thus i’m paying for them. isn’t that socialism ?


  15. latest Trader Moe chart.As I remember it,the S&P was supposed to drop to 2150 because it broke down.Wrong.Now he says the break above 2362 means a meltup.No moe Moe after today.

  16. tommyboys says:

    Daily hasn’t yet but appears weekly AD has made a marginal new high.

  17. gary61b says:

    ES, Im looking for the 2357.25 level to be reached from 2353.25 low this AM, then possible down to 2348 level. then looking on a 60min. chart looks to be a expanding triangle. Those are usually bearish, time will tell.

  18. tommyboys says:

    AAII picked up bears and lost bulls this week. Hasn’t even gotten past neutral this whole pullback. Certainly not bear market sentiment.

    http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

  19. micky says:

    ftse should give a good retrace, the ld up seems done.

  20. Stock market returns:
    Following the 10% of months with the lowest consumer confidence index readings
    3 months. 2.8%
    6 months. 6.3%
    12 months 11.9%
    Following the 10% of months with the highest consumer confidence index readings

    3 months. -0.9%
    6 months. -0.2%
    12 months. 3.0%
    courtesy Mark Hulbert.
    Does that mean bonds and gold are the place to be?I’m awake waaaay too early.

  21. vivelaamo says:

    Tony is it fair to say that your long term count is extremely bullish?

  22. micky says:

    I have the dow and spx abc patterns from ath done and dusted, targets have been met. Only question now is whether they are busy with 5 or with a bigger B wave up. Both scenarios suggest higher prices to come. My money is with Tony,s count of 5. Only thing for me is whether price is busy with a 1st wave up of 5 or will it be a continuous wave with no big pb,s on the way.

    • micky says:

      btw I have it that there is NO way to count the drop from the ath as an impulsive 5 waves down as some have suggested, only as an ABC correction.

  23. stormchaser80llc says:

    My proprietary Technicals Model improved again today but remains negative. The same can be said about the McClellan Oscillator. The signals based on my model are bullish for the second day in a row. However my favorite indicator remains bearish (slightly). With negative divergences forming on the SPX hourly chart this is a good place for shorts to see what the bulls are made of. Do the bulls push past the 2371 resistance line and 2375 0.784 retrace? That would likely be the end of any possible bearish count right now.

    Once again I demonstrated how hard of a time I have selling these options trades. I am setting a self imposed sell on any PUTS I buy at a 50% profit. No profit limit for CALLS which are easier to get out of unless in a bear market, then my strategy would reverse.

    No post for Thursday as I will be having a neck procedure. Friday’s post will either be at my normal time or on Saturday.

    Much more FREE analysis at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com). However be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

  24. kvilia says:

    Learned,
    GC to pull back to 1230 before breaking out to take out last year’s highs. This could be a nice entry point for miners. http://imgur.com/a/arbrr

  25. cj32 says:

    Cr to CBZ

  26. kvilia says:

    Can anyone tell me how to fix Investing.com snapshot resolution? That’s what I’m getting: https://invst.ly/3km7g

  27. Quick Ira summary:
    GOLD bullishly embedded.So is GLD.GdX is not.
    DXY WAS bearishly embedded–came out of it today.Ira’s rule is,it must re-embed the day after,or it just becomes oversold–leading to a probable good sized dollar rally.Do you think Yellen and Co. are going to let the dollar re-embed?The dollar would need a good down day tomorrow in otherwords.
    Results?If the dollar begins a rally–stocks will also.If it re-embeds (for whatever reason),stocks will continue to correct.
    A dollar rally would take gold out of its embedded stochastic and start a selloff.Euro is overbought,not embedded anymore.Yen still is.TLT IS embedded bullishly.
    So it all comes down to the dollar–as usual.Unless DXY rolls over tomorrow–gold will soonafter.
    Good luck all.

    • kvilia says:

      Miners show the way for gold surprisingly, not vice versa. Looks like gc wants to pull back to 1234, then will be a good entry into miners.

  28. BJ:
    This wave could turn out to be a Flat B or a weak 5, as Tony has warned. I think even a weak micro 5 should make ATH’S, shouldn’t it? If it has trouble exceeding 2401, then it most likely is a irregular (flat) double zz, as I suggested yesterday.

  29. This wave could turn out to be a Flat B or a weak 5, as Tony has warned. I think even a weak micro 5 should make ATH’S, shouldn’t it? If it has trouble exceeding 2401, then it most likely is a irregular (flat) double zz, as I suggested yesterday.

  30. blackjak100 says:

    Thanks NK! He’s using the most common P5 count as an impulse. I’ve stated why it could be a ABC unfolding. Either way, wave 4 correction still ongoing (A completed at 2322) to keep in proportion with wave 2. Most common would be a Flat to alternate with wave 2 ZZ which means B underway now can exceed 2401. Key takeaway is it needs to reach 2393ish to qualify as a flat (90% of A)

  31. pooch77 says:

    So there is a catalyst fo Tonys 2448

  32. pooch77 says:

    So vote on Obamacare next week,should be good for 500-700 dow points

  33. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is #OIL at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  34. Hi Tony
    Great analysis on micro wave 4.

    Quick question, on SPX, if micro wave 1 was 50 points, micro wave 5 would have to be a bit over 1.618X wave 1 to reach a nominal new all time high, ie: >2401.. How common is this wave 5 to wave 1 relationship? Or, are there other wave relationships that might be more technically significant?

    • tony caldaro says:

      5th waves have been abnormally weak since 2009.
      Would not expect too much out of this one

      • channelsforall says:

        Help me understand this: If micro v ends, so does minute iii. If minute i was 193 points, and wave three cannot be the smaller than wave one (that would make it the smallest wave), then shouldn’t minute iii at least be equal to minute i (giving a 2470-ish target)?

  35. pooch77 says:

    Last 4 days of March is traditionally bearish,1st days 0f April traditionally bullish

  36. Richard Glackin says:

    Note the time on this post…market is NOT looking good at this time.

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