Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then market rallies, DOW +151

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: 5.9% v 5.6%. The market opened 3 points below yesterday’s SPX 2342 close, bounced to 2344 in the opening minutes, hit 2338 by 10am, then started to move higher. At 10am consumer confidence was reported at a 16-year high: 125.6 v 114.8. The rally continued into the afternoon with a couple of small pullbacks along the way. At 1pm FED chair Yellen: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20170328a.htm. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 2364, then pulled back to close at 2359.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.60%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude rose 60 cents, Gold dropped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: pending home sales at 10am.

The market opened slightly lower today, bounced, hit SPX 2338, and then started to rally. Just before 2pm the SPX hit 2358, for a 36-point rally from yesterday’s 2322 low. This is the best rally since this decline began from SPX 2401 earlier in the month. The tentative green Micro 4 was upgraded to orange at that point. This rally now presents the best opportunity for a Micro 5 advance to new highs. Short term support is in the SPX 2350’s and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum hit quite overbought during today’s rally. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend rebounding

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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111 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. tommyboys says:

    A/D strong today. New high may not be far off.


  2. setting up for a interesting close


  3. torehund says:

    I have heard there is a migration from big cities towards the periphery across the US, is this the real estate crash lurking ?


    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      I think residential is fine because supply got reduced so much after the crisis. Commercial depends on what type of commercial. I think a lot of the retailers are in trouble and that’s due to the migration to online shopping. The boomers will buy less and venture out less and the millennial shopping patterns are ingrained in the internet. They are value shoppers and you can only do that efficiently online. Higher interest rates, demographics, and the internet coupled with the next down turn will be a perfect storm for a lot of commercial real estate.


      • Dex T says:

        Quite probable.

        Many retailers cannot compete with the tax free online environment. They either will have to shut down leading to huge job and commercial real estate losses or online companies will have to be taxed in the future.


    • Dex T says:

      Entirely possible. Have been reading many articles about struggling malls and commercial real estate developments throughout the U.S.

      A commercial real estate broker in Manhattan recently told me that the vacancy rates are over 50% in many of the higher prices locations like 5th Avenue and Madison, etc… Many buildings filled with empty floors and impossible to attract any types of subletters.

      The rent/locations and taxes are much too high and debts levels held by banks and funds out of control.


  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    (from Dan) Phil is much more of an asset to this club than Johnny, imo . Johnny must have been trolling Phil. Why else would Phils posts disturb him??

    Too many of you are like a bunch of girls. If I bust on Phil about fifty million posts big deal. I would do the same thing to a friend of mine. It doesn’t mean I don’t appreciate the posts I am just busting on the fifty million posts (I did say that I appreciate them at the same time). You throw the slightest challenge out there and people get all sensitive. Same thing with challenging Tony’s very poor count record over the last few years but few of you choose to ignore that


    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      most of you choose to ignore that


    • vivelaamo says:

      “Too many of you are like a bunch of girls”

      Lol I agree


    • jhjoyner says:

      Is your count perfect?


    • thcconsulting says:

      Valid point. I took the original post as a friendly “jab” compared to another comment directed at Phil’s post count. Phil seemed to have gotten it so no harm, no foul.

      Speaking in general to all who participate in the comments, I suggest further inquiry on the details of the perceived issue before making allegations against the OP. We’ve all seen how these blatant “name-calling”/”finger-pointing” discussions turn out, assuming we’re all adults here :]



  5. micky says:

    Surely looks and acts like a triangle, its buggering up my drawing now. If it breaks up like I think, there should be one last wave of this degree..


  6. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony, how many waves do you count so far from 2322? Thanks


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