SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rebound, DOW -46
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.9%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were sharply lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 2323 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2344 on Friday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2322 and then started to rally. At 1pm the market had closed the gap when hitting SPX 2344. A pullback to SPX 2336 followed by 2:30. Another rally pushed to SPX to 2345. Then a dip into the close ended the day at SPX 2342.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude slipped 15 cents, Gold rose $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, consumer confidence at 10am, then a speech from FED chair Yellen at 12:45.
The market opened today by gapping below the 2336 pivot, which had held support during this decline. At the open it found support at the 2321 pivot, and then rallied. Everything I have read over the past several days, on the blog and in the OEW forum, suggests the market is in correction mode. There are lots of technicals to support this scenario, and it was even noted as possible in the weekend update. While this may be the most obvious scenario, the short term DOW count still looks acceptable. Which was noted as favored over the SPX count in the weekend update as well. The SPX short term count had been a bit choppy over the past month or so, while the DOW count has been quite clear since this bull market began over 13-months ago. The DOW count continues to suggest Micro 4 has been underway this month in an ongoing uptrend. Should the SPX lose the 2321 pivot (2314-2328) then the downtrend scenario would be more likely. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the mid-2350’s and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum hit neutral during today’s rebound. Trade what’s in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure
LONG TERM: uptrend