weekend update

REVIEW

The market started the week at SPX 2378. After a pullback to SPX 2370 on Monday, the market gapped up to 2382 on Tuesday. But that was immediately sold off and the market hit SPX 2336 by Wednesday. Thursday the market rebounded to SPX 2359, then on Friday the market retested 2336 and ended the week at 2344. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.00%. Economic reports were mixed on the week. On the downtick: existing homes sales, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: new home sales, durable goods orders, and the Q1 GDP estimate. Next week’s highlights: Q4 GDP, the Chicago PMI, the PCE and a speech from FED Chair Yellen. Best to your weekend and week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

This week the market experienced its worse weekly decline since October: -1.4%. Considering the market has rallied 15.2% since November it is a relatively small decline. From the early-March SPX 2401 all-time high the market had declined 2.7% at this week’s SPX 2336 low. This is the largest decline, in points and percentage, since the current uptrend began in early-November. With this in mind, it is possible that a correction could be underway. While our internal uptrend wave count does not support it, a break of the OEW 2321 pivot range (2314-2328) would likely suggest that scenario.

Whether the market experiences a correction, or not, the long term count remains unaffected. A Super cycle wave 2 low occurred in 2009 at SPX 667. Cycle wave [1] of Super cycle wave 3 has been underway since then. Cycle wave [1] should consist of five Primary waves. Primary wave I ended in 2015 at SPX 2135, and Primary wave II ended in 2016 at SPX 1811, and Primary wave III has been underway since then. Primary III should consist of five Major waves. A Major wave 1 of Primary III bull market has been underway since the February 2016 Primary II low at SPX 1811.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Major wave 1 is dividing into five Intermediate waves. Intermediate wave i ended in April at SPX 2111, Int. wave ii ended in June at SPX 1992, and Int. wave iii has been underway since then. Intermediate wave iii is dividing into five Minor waves. Minor wave 1 ended in August at SPX 2194, Minor wave 2 ended in November at SPX 2084, and Minor wave 3 has already reached SPX 2401 during its current uptrend.

The Minor 3 uptrend has lasted longer, 4 months v 2 months, than either of the first two uptrends. And had travelled more points, 317 v 301 and 202, than either of the previous uptrends. This is typical for a third wave. Recently it also hit the most overbought weekly RSI reading since the year 2004. While the market has been under pressure this entire month, we are sticking with our short term count for this uptrend. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Our short term count suggests the SPX is currently in a Nano iv pullback, of Micro 3, of Minute iii. Our short term count for the DOW suggests the market is currently in a Micro 4 pullback of Minute iii. Considering the length and depth of the pullback we tend to prefer the DOW count. When this pullback concludes, if it hasn’t already, we expect a rally to new highs to complete Minute wave iii. Then after another pullback for Minute iv, a Minute v rally to complete the entire uptrend. Not much wiggle room on the downside left. If this uptrend is going to resume, as expected, it will have to occur next week.

Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance in the mid-2350’s and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week oversold. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly lower on the week and lost 0.5%.

European markets were also mostly lower and lost 0.3%.

The DJ World index lost 0.8%, and the NYSE lost 1.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in a downtrend and lost 0.3%.

Crude is also in a downtrend and lost 2.7%.

Gold appears to be in an uptrend and gained 1.5%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.5%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: a speech from FED chair Yellen, the Case-Shiller index and consumer confidence. Wednesday: pending home sales. Thursday: Q4 GDP final (est. 2.0%) and weekly jobless claims. Friday: personal income/spending, the PCE, the Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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215 Responses to weekend update

  1. fotis2 says:

    Awake is the one who knows he cannot control everything. Enlightened he who dismisses that which he cannot control and deals only with what he can …Stoicism

  2. micky says:

    the 3rd target on vst was spot on..im chuffed. its the only way I feel comfy to trade as its easy.,it holds or not.

  3. captbara says:

    Setting up some potential 4 day NYMO +ve div if we close under 2344 ish. Big +ve div from Mar 9 still on the table too.

  4. 2348 close.? see what tomorrow brings

  5. vivelaamo says:

    Pump in to close to end with a candle and then confirm the pb is over tomorrow. I’m confident we are done and can look for pbs to buy. All the best.

  6. torehund says:

    Abc up on the Euro from mid December, should head south soon together with oil, Tbt also favored, be patient🐊🐊🐊

  7. dan pulford says:

    Back to spx 2331 area. maybe.

  8. dan pulford says:

    SPX filled the gap, lets see whats next.

  9. kvilia says:

    Learned, I’ve been evaluating PMs bounce and has not come to any conclusion yet. I don’t really like that GDX is getting overbought on hourly and daily at the time when there are calls for 23.5 being a breakup entry point. I would rather have gold making a pullback and GDX holding 22 before buying back. Are you looking for a potential entry?

    • kvilia says:

      It would be really great for gc and us to pull back to 1235/1227 area before the next run.

    • When GDX took a dive a couple weeks ago,I mentioned three things it had to do.
      1)Get above 10 and 20 d (done)
      2)have a bullish recross of 13/34 ma (close)
      3)Get above 25.60 black crow.
      After #1,I added some,will add more as 2 and 3 progress-if they do.Also a higher high of 23.45 is important–as Ira points out.Gold above 1264 will be a bear trap.(Ira again).
      Tomorrow,Yellen could kill PMs with one sentence and ruin a beautiful H&S on the dollar.So it’s up to Yellen for the dollar,stocks and PMs.

  10. vivelaamo says:

    Bounce is quite strong on the rut. I been trying to go long on pbs without success.

  11. gary61b says:

    ES has some unfinished business at 2339.75 so that level will be tagged and that should put the spx at a gap fill, then will see if price it rejected from going north at this time.

  12. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPX ~ Symmetry Break @ +2357
    GL All

  13. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  14. jhjoyner says:

    Never short a dull market. That’s what we have experienced since 3/1.

  15. vivelaamo says:

    Need a strong close to set up a 🔨 reversal. Not getting too excited just yet. Could easily see selling in to the close.

    Lee who is trolling who?

  16. Lee X says:

    Maybe if some of you guys weren’t trolling each other here you’d notice Tony’s pivot he mentioned had a decent pop this am .

    Hey Tony, nice old boy

  17. vivelaamo says:

    Very quiet without Newbie here. I miss him.

  18. pooch77 says:

    wow that was a weak pullback

  19. micky says:

    lets see what 38/40 area does,

    • micky says:

      no matter where we close, I think 4 is done, it went a few points below my mt reversal target, and made a proper reversal already..in my book. Anyhow I will continue to scalp until 60 goes .

  20. johnnymagicmoney says:

    No offense Phil but is this your website now? I appreciate your posts but we are getting ever single trade you are making lol

  21. phil1247 says:

    hasta folks!

    see you at the SWARM tomorrow
    be there or be square 🙂

  22. blackjak100 says:

    If this is the bottom, wave 5 of C counts perfectly as an expanding ED from 2359.

    • blackjak100 says:

      And price is moving rapidly in opposite direction which it should do following any ED. This is further confirmation.

  23. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p09939415893&a=514993947&r=1490617447035
    By all rights,this would seal the deal.Have to get past Ol’ Yellen first.See you much later.

  24. vivelaamo says:

    Did you know even with all this bearishness Rut is yet to close below 1346 this year. Will it manage it today?

  25. vivelaamo says:

    Phil what’s your bearish below ?

  26. micky says:

    went straight down to very short term 3rd target, gotto hold otherwise next could be 2300 area

  27. pooch77 says:

    TNA next stop $90-92?

  28. phil1247 says:

    /zb

    bonds getting close to target …
    ..want to take profits on next surge
    if it doesnt blast thru to the upside

    • mjtplayer says:

      TLT has heavy resistance at $122. If it can break through, it would set up a run to $128 – where it would be a short sellers gift

      • phil1247 says:

        /zbm7
        ext long 15 min under pressure and daily at upper bb

        took profits

        • mjtplayer says:

          Failure to push through TLT $122 sets up a pullback to the $119 area, before another run at $122

          • phil1247 says:

            mjt
            i trade the cash bonds
            so i am more interested in /zb and yield than tlt

            • phil1247 says:

              i earn interest every day i hold it
              not like tlt where you get dividend once a month
              and price drops by that amount
              plus bonds trade for free.
              .. tlt has commission
              ..altho i dont pay any commissions
              basically tlt is a ripoff

              • aahmichael says:

                Bonds do not trade for free. Broker/dealers pocket the spread on every transaction. Essentially, they buy them at wholesale, and sell them to you at retail. The same thing occurs every time you sell a bond.

  29. The first stop at the 13 week of 2322 held right on the nose.A break of that easily has potential of visiting the 34 week.I listed all those times the weekly RSI got over 80 and many of those visited the 34 week.It’s normal.Even below.First things first though.
    GDX needs to close over 23.45.Dollar breaks the H&S at 99.Goal is 95.I’ll believe it when I see it. (But I want to see it).Good luck all.

  30. phil1247 says:

    /cl

    headed for 47 target

    crash thru to 10 dollars or bounce ?

    • Page says:

      10 dollars? Ha Ha Ha … that’s funny

      • phil1247 says:

        Page says:
        March 24, 2017 at 4:00 pm
        Smart move pulling the healthcare bill. Bears will lick their wounds next week.
        SPX will open with huge gap up Monday. Gold down big. Oil up.

        Thanks Tony. Have a good weekend.

        if that was FUNNY

        your post is hilarious

        …3 strikes

        Page……. you are OUT!

    • Richard Glackin says:

      Yeh Phil, earlier on I was thinking 46 but I think you’re right-more like 47.

  31. phil1247 says:

    phil1247 says:
    March 25, 2017 at 7:53 am
    http://tos.mx/Kb0uSX?image

    SPX

    its not a bull market

    its a SALAMI market
    your profits are taken away one slice at a time
    till the whole salami is gone

    bearish below 2357 in extension shorts
    target 2328
    if the extension short hits the 2328 target
    the extension long has failed
    and panic selling
    should be seen to 2298
    Reply

    let the PANIC begin !

    doubled SPXU.from friday now 50% short
    ..will pile on shorts when i can put a stop in

  32. micky says:

    You guys remember there was someone over here that was calling for the bottom to fall out about a year ago, he showed us charts with even Z waves, I kid you not… was very entertaining until he stopped posting.

  33. STEPHEN BARTLETT says:

    Still have wave g and larger wave d from 1999 complete at the highs. Target 1700.

  34. opader says:

    MON – MAR 27 2017
    SPX Support and Resistance
    Today chances are excellent that SPX tests its 50 D-SMA around 2330, from there it could shoot up or just drop much lower to lower 2300. Either way, there very likely be a sizable bounce at 2330.

    @balancetrading
    https://www.facebook.com/vsg.opader
    http://balancetrading.org

  35. vivelaamo says:

    Anyone have a record of how many recent open gaps there are on SPX above or below? Thanks.

  36. Richard Glackin says:

    In this wave C of iv down, we just hit 2318ES, where the ‘C’ wave thus far counts; 1-2, (i,ii,iii,iv,v) 3. We are now at 150% of wave A with the 4 and 5 of wave C to go. Wave 5 of C should get us to 161.8% of wave A which would be right around 2312.

  37. vivelaamo says:

    Be careful bears. This scenario looks very familiar. Watch you don’t get trapped.

  38. fotis2 says:

    fotis2 says:
    March 23, 2017 at 12:23 pm

    And thar she blows! Viva la Newbie!!!

  39. The futures are a demolition derby. if this carries into Monday trading, I hope it is some sort of climax. It could just end up as the end of an ‘a’ leg of an ‘abc’. Hopefully, the degree does not exceed the micro magnitude.

  40. Piri Reis says:

    G’s ! Have you guys never heard of GAPS?
    I am trying to buy, but I am away from my home country

  41. micky says:

    ES in support area

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