Friday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then another choppy day, DOW -60

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened lower but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 durable goods orders were reported higher: 1.7% v 1.8%. The market opened at SPX 2351, rallied to 2356 by 11am, and then began to pullback. Just past 3pm the SPX hit the 2336 pivot again. Then it was announced that the healthcare bill vote was cancelled. The market reversed to the upside. At 3:30 the SPX hit 2351, then pulled back to end the week at 2344.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds added 1 tick, Crude rose 35 cents, Gold tacked on $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 59.0% v 59.6%, and the Q1 GDP estimate was reported higher: 1.0% v 0.9%.

The market opened higher today, rallied, and then sold off to Wednesday’s 2336 low. After the healthcare bill vote was cancelled the market reversed and ended the week at SPX 2344. The market has appeared to have been held hostage by this healthcare bill the past few trading days. No change in thee short term count. Weekend update tomorrow. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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28 Responses to Friday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    The vote caused uncertainty which the market doesn’t like. Now it’s over I think the up trend resumes. Have a good weekend all.

  2. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al, appreciate the OEW analysis this week.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I like the Critics’ Choice of St. Matthew Passion (yesterday), and hope you do too.
      Tonight a little lighter with the fabulous Leonard Bernstein and Mozart…..and Lena Horne.

  3. mjtplayer says:

    Today’s low marked 5 waves down from the high on the SPY, perhaps today’s low is “a” with a “b” wave rally to come?

  4. Big positive for markets if the healthcare bill fails estimated to shrink GDP by US337b over 10 years. US needs large government deficits to produce nominal gdp growth and inflation.

    • pooch77 says:

      big negative to middle class worker

    • CB says:

      As you point out, the market, is very aware of the link between government (yes, mostly deficit-) spending, aggregate demand and corporate profit generation. And, to be fair, both parties here have embraced Keynesianism equally since 2000 to promote econ. growth…..Bush in the military area, Obama in the social arena…
      (OK, both parties are “big spenders,” as Pooch would say : )
      Now, if healthcare spending were to be cut substantially right now as a result of some new legislation, the market would have to reflect that…because job and profit losses in healthcare would soon reflect any changes in demand for healthcare services…. but as of today, there is no change in the status quo…so, as NZ points out, the market may like the current “certainty.”

      As this President is likely to pursue the traditional Republican agenda, which favors military spending over social spending, the issue the market is facing right now is how quickly public spending will be re-directed to the military arena..And how the market is going to handle any delays…
      Happy weekend everyone!

  5. I went to the Ymca,jumped on a treadmill to watch the vote on the big TV and voila…”BREAKING NEWS–VOTE CANCELLED”.
    I can just imagine Trump seeing the markets moving steadily down.
    Trump:”Holy Crap Priebus,the markets are crashing.”
    Priebus:”How much sir,1000 points?”
    Trump:”Almost…102.There goes my Trump rally.We break 2330 and its down to 1800,this guy I read,Newbie said so.CANCEL THE VOTE!!!”
    And that’s the way it will be written in history….

    • CB says:

      lol..but, but, but ….we have firm support @ 2301 🙂 Cheers!

      • scorp100 says:

        What support? It’s always ‘B’ wave when rising and always ‘C’ wave in Newbie’s world. He is good guy though, keeps fueling up the rally. Really good guy.

        • CB says:

          lol… you’re right, scorp, it’s”presumptive” support : ) …That’s what Phil teaches us. (Thank you Prof. Phil, it’s good to be able to learn from you).
          Yes, definitely Newbie is a good guy! He has a nice sense of humor and he posts cool visuals : ) But somehow people like to tease him (too much)..
          My oh my, it takes a lot of diplomatic skills to deal with all that teasing, doesn’t it?…. He’s a good sport.

  6. One woul think the market should pause until a trump promise gets passed. The wall will be paid by Mexico. No. repel and replace opama care no. Know he finds out congress is inept. Mostly the GOP in the house. John bener resigned the speaker of the house, how long does Paul Ryan last?

    upsided limited to 2411 ish.then a bigger sell off,

  7. Page says:

    Smart move pulling the healthcare bill. Bears will lick their wounds next week.
    SPX will open with huge gap up Monday. Gold down big. Oil up.

    Thanks Tony. Have a good weekend.

    • pooch77 says:

      Not sure about big gap up,now the question is how competent is GOP and president???They harp on Obamacare for 7 years and there plan couldn’t pass muster thru congress,could same be for tax plan ,I favor gap down

  8. phil1247 says:

    thanks tony and have a great weekend

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