Monday update

SHORT TERM: lower open pullback continues, DOW -9

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight and the market opened 3 points below Friday’s SPX 2378 close. In the opening minutes the market ticked down to SPX 2374, then rallied to 2380 by 10:30. After that the pullback resumed. Around 3pm the SPX hit 2370, then bounced to close at 2373.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.05%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude dropped 35 cents, Gold rose $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots.

The market opened lower today, bounced to turn positive in the first hour of trading, then resumed the pullback that started last Wednesday from SPX 2390. From the SPX 2355 Nano wave iv low on March 9th, we now have a choppy advance: 2377-2355-2390-2370 so far. Normally this would suggest Nano iv is still underway. However, when reviewing the SPX hourly chart this type of pattern is exactly how Nano wave iii began. With that in mind we maintain the count as is, and await further short term market activity. Short term support is at SPX 2353/55/58 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum hit oversold at the low, and ended the dya just above it. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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152 Responses to Monday update

  1. kvilia says:

    Gold has been nothing but crashing lately.

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Waiting for a dancing bear to fire the trigger.

  3. captbara says:

    Turnaround Wednesday on deck.

  4. phil1247 says:

    2341 /es

    out of all shorts

  5. vivelaamo says:

    Newbie must be wetting himself with excitement!

  6. phil1247 says:


    2343 next target

    there was never any reason to be long
    this am while below 2382

  7. ariez5 says:

    Newbie, I sure your long term bearishness, and I am short selected securities, but the market gave NO longer term sell signal at 2401. Based on all the history that I have seen, there is no reason to think that was the top. Careful getting too cocky here.

    • NEWBIE says:

      Im not being cocky, did you see my post below? I laid out an option that puts 2401as end of wave 3 and now down to 2200. However, things can change in an instance and 2401 could turn out being the top

  8. gary61b says:

    ES I do like a C1 to 2344 then C2 up to 2372 then C3 down to 2303.

  9. johnnymagicmoney says:

    BULL – Market has shown incredible resilience and whether its algos, CB’s or dumb retail money, it sometimes doesn’t matter. Its strength is its strength and should be respected. For it to bounce here and go to ATH’s would not surprise me as frustrating as it is.

    BEAR – Bulls have been trained like little rats sucking up cocaine in their water bottles. They know nothing but BTD. They feel that the FED has their back, that every drop is an opportunity and actually believe that the economy is roaring forward. Incredible complacency and detachment from reality is actually the reality. The fundamentals and risks completely and utterly support a sell off of a meaningful degree that would surprise many bulls who have been trained like spoiled children. It would be a sigh of relief to see it take place for at the very least it would signal that some normalcy has returned to the markets and frankly for bulls would provide a better entry point. It would not surprise me to see such a drop for finally I have also been trained like the little rats believing that the “selloff” is never going to happen. This is when it happens!!

    SUMMARY – The market will abuse both camps when it wishes and this is a fact. It is humbling and powerful. It is generous and mean. It will lift you into the clouds and bring you to your knees as you plead for mercy. Have respect for both the bull and the bear for your squiggles are like straw for the rumbling animal that will only reveal its true identity once it has run over you leaving you bloody, beaten, and blue.

  10. blackjak100 says:

    11pt bounce already suggests a double three wave 4 completed at 2349.

  11. micky says:

    es and cash both hit ST supports, whether it was enough for 4 remains to be seen.

  12. Today’s action shows we haven’t started v up just yet…I think we’re still in the throes of the final C down of a long and complex iv wave that started at 2,401. It very well may have ended at the (so far) 2,348.53 low of this morning, but reserves the right to go lower. Nothing nefarious here…just another iv wave, doing its best to frustrate and confuse…

    • NEWBIE says:

      How about market topped OR wave 3 up completed at 2400 and now wave 4 down to 2200

      • I think that’s possible, but I personally see it as less likely. The count I’m tracking portends one more higher high before that larger 4 wave drop.

        In my count, that larger 4 wave can’t drop below 2,278, because it would then exceed the 1 wave that traveled from 2,084 to 2,278.

        But I see that next larger 4 drop as the next ‘batter on deck’ as we approach the next higher high. And then another higher high, and then there’s the NEXT larger IV (a wave degree higher) coming after that, which can’t drop below 2,194 (I wave was 1,991 to 2,194).

        So my count sees a lot of trade-able movement in the coming months, but 4 waves can be really frustrating to trade.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      finally a voice of reason

  13. torehund says:

    “When both the fish and fisherman looses their head, their paths will diverge”
    Stay calm in the chop rollover, it may soon end.

  14. magnus1234 says:

    DAX30: DAX30 Top (me again) ? I was too early last time but this time it looks more definite.

    DAx30 1h:
    DAX30 4h:
    DAx30 Daily:

  15. soulsurfer says:

    It looks like the larger correction I’ve alluded to over the past weeks is now underway. The NDX adds to that story:

    GL folks!

  16. NEWBIE says:

    Next comes conflict with North Korea or “event” as excuse for upcoming market drop / correction that takes us to 2220

  17. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    (+13 days was the clue)
    SPY ~ same 13/34cci technical structure as Minute ii, so Minute iv complete?
    Otherwise 9 waves complete at Major Yearly Resistance…..
    GL All

  18. captbara says:

    How about 2 was flat and 4 is sharp? Now that 2354 is toast. Looking for bounce at 2345 or so.

  19. lunker1 says:

    SPX aligning w Dow count?

  20. phil1247 says:

    see you at the SWARM……


  21. phil1247 says:

    near next target /es

    took off 1/2 SPXU again

    only 25% short now

  22. blackjak100 says:

    Triangle invalidated so now more bearish options emerge.

  23. This will be the second day NAsdaq unembeds.Correction in process.

  24. lunker1 says:

    SPY wants to fill gap 235.09?

  25. Next levels would test 2358,2354…then down to 2320ish I think.

  26. Richard Glackin says:

    Ah yes, 3 of C of Minute IV down. I warned you all very early Monday am that this IV was NOT DONE. I’m working on wordpress login so I can post graphics.

    • phil1247 says:

      maybe its not a 4….

      no matter ..
      .there was NEVER any reason to be long yesterday or this am

  27. Mr C,do you know why the USD chart is not an up to the minute chart like others are?Just a daily close.

  28. gary61b says:

    ES above 2366 then 2372 is next, If we stay below 2366 then 2351.5 should be taken out.

  29. Mary773 says:

    From Free CoT Data:

    Stocks: Money managers keep shorting the Nasdaq as it rallies. This is completely opposite of what you’d expect from trend followers, and could lead to painful short covering if the index keeps rising

    Bonds: Speculators are extremely short the 30-year and were caught offsides last week since long-term rates pulled back

    Commodities: Commercial hedgers are very long cocoa and RBOB gasoline. Traders put on a bunch of fresh shorts in WTI crude and platinum. Cotton, silver, and lumber are three crowded long trades.

    Currencies: Specs are very bullish on AUD/USD and have recently gotten bearish on JPY/USD

  30. blackjak100 says:

    Buy 2363ish which is 78.6% retrace of 2390-2354…end of wave c of triangle.

  31. phil1247 says:


    hope the SWARM still has ZERO allocation to bonds again !

  32. phil1247 says:

    but he could play the long side

    just like a ringing a bell

    Go go………

    BONDS they B Goode !

  33. naz43 says:

    Hello Tony, greetings from Italy. How do you see my count on the dax ???

  34. Mary773 says:

    I searched for your analysis on Stockcharts for Cocoa but was unable to find any. Cocoa recently hit monthly support accompanied by heavy speculative COT shorts. Do you have any EW analysis on that market? Thank you.

  35. nyjsec314 says:

    Added long bonds cut back on small caps

    Added South Korea


  36. I’ll pass along Ira’s buy and sell levels on GDX.Below 22.51 sell. ABOVE 23.45–buy.

  37. stormchaser80llc says:

    My signals have been saying a neutral/bearish position is best now for over a week and I am positioned that way. Last Thursday sold the market in my 401K and my cash is sitting in an interest account.

    This morning I purchased June Puts with the final 60% of my trading account. My trading account is currently 100% bearish with SPY June Puts. The downtrend price-wise has been muted thus far so I will quickly sell if its apparent that its already over.

    My proprietary Technicals Model was positive again today but at lower values. A 1 day hiccup or is it rolling over again? My favorite signal has been bearish for some time and is now at a level that could support bearish tones for up to two more weeks, but perhaps a shorter time frame (meaning its hard to initiate new positions – yes I took a gamble with my new puts today). For that reason its best to monitor price action instead of jumping into a new position with both feet.

    My site ( is completely FREE. However, be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

  38. vivelaamo says:

    Hmmm. Could be time to be cautious and wait for a larger move down before buying again. I’ll leave you day traders to make money from this boring choppiness.

  39. opader says:

    SGS ticked down. Tomorrow should be interesting. A close below PUL-3, possibly tomorrow, would signal more selling and a very likely test of 50 D-SMA around 2330 soon.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Thanks Fiona. Chris Kimples chart is interesting. You could easily say that 2013-14 could have looked like one his double tops also. Look what happened next.

      • That’s a great chart…and an easy one to keep track of.Yellen used to get her “Fat Fingers” ready to buy some stock and BUST that bear,after seeing a chart like that.Breaking the high would end THAT debate.Nice post Fiona.

    • fionamargaret says:

      If you really want to hear this in all its glory, you have to listen to Bernstein’s recording.
      I couldn’t handle the ads scattered throughout, and the sound needing to be remastered, but Bernstein’s version is the one.
      And you do know if I cry at Abbado’s passion for Mahler and his choosing special musicians to play it to its ultimate possibilities… with his dying in the end, then you do know that just seeing Bernstein’s face……

      • blubrd67 says:

        Interesting, I was just listening to BERNSTEIN’s version couple of days ago on WFMT Chicago classical station. I was mesmerized! We seem to have similar taste. Do you have large collection of classical music?

        • fionamargaret says:

          Blu, if you liked Mozart’s Mass, do listen to his Requiem I posted today on Tuesday Update… is recognized by many as the best piece of music ever written.
          Again Karl Bohm’s version is the one to choose for majesty and depth, but the slight sound distortion (needs remastering) when volume is raised leads me to another copy.
          A large collection of classical music is in my mind to draw on….it is a passion…and was my life…

  40. Thanks Tony. Against a backdrop of growing worries about the Trump presidency, the market retraced the Fed rally to the lowest point possible……ES 65.50 or SPX 2369.50 where buyers stepped in. Should the market drift lower while wanting to keep the prospects of nano v alive, I think its essential that the market hold ES 2362.25, one of the most tested trading pivots on four hour charts in March. This level is close to SPX 2366 and would, if it holds, be the second higher low. Loads of uncertainty.

  41. jhjoyner says:

    Market could be irratic due to Q/E window dressing for the next few days.

  42. lunker1 says:

    Agree on the comparison to the beginning of nano three. Seems we’re making a pair of 1, 2s

    • blackjak100 says:

      We’ll soon find out, but don’t forget about a continuing wave iv triangle. With the overlap of 2377ish today, it rules out impulse from 2255 and ii traded into 1 territory greatly reducing probability of 1’s and 2’s. NYAD has been sluggish at best.

      My guess is continued sideways grinding this week in what could be a triangle. Looking for very short term bottom near 2363ish next.

  43. CB says:

    Thanks Tony. March Madness and converging TLs … who doesn’t like those, right? : )

    Someone should have asked Spicer during the presser today whether this is a BF … he sounds so robotic, he should know .. 😉

    Cheers everyone.

  44. Bud Fox says:

    Thank you Tony, for what do, 5 days a week, and month after month.
    I appreciate, your effort and you do it 6 days a week…:)

    • Bud Fox says:

      SP500 has been in a strong raising mode since Jan/Feb 2016.
      Maybe, this is a good time for a pause, or rest. Before resuming
      the advance higher…..let’s see what TC has to share….

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