Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open FED raises 25 bps, DOW +113

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: 0.1% v 0.6%, retail sales were reported higher: 0.1% v 0.4%, and the NY FED was reported lower: 16.4 v 18.7. The market opened at SPX 2371 and continued to rise. The SPX had closed at 2365 yesterday. At 10am business inventories were reported higher: 0.3% v 0.4%, and the NAHB was reported at a 12-year high: 71 v 65. The market continued to rise until 1pm when the SPX hit 2177. Then after a 3 point dip the market awaited the FED rate announcement. As widely expected the FED raised rates by 25 bps, and released this statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20170315a.htm. Also: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20170315.pdf. The market immediately rallied to SPX 2383, pulled back to 2378 just before Yellen’s press conference, then rallied to 2390 by 3:30. After that the SPX pulled back to close at 2385.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.70%. Bonds rallied 29 ticks, Crude rose $1.10, Gold jumped $21, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: housing starts, building permits, the Philly FED and weekly jobless claims at 8:30.

The market opened higher today, rallied right up to SPX 2377, then pulled back 3 points just before the FOMC rate announcement. After that, the market cleared SPX 2377 suggesting Nano wave v is now underway to new highs. It is interesting how the market paused right at that number. With the 1st and 3rd waves now behind us in this uptrend, and 5th waves in recent years relatively weak, all that is required for Nano v is to make a new high above SPX 2401. The OEW 2411 pivot range comes to mind. After that the OEW 2428 pivot range. With lots more economic reports ahead, and options expiration, there could be a wild finish to the week. Short term support is at SPX 2353/55 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum ended the day quite overbought. Trade what is in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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135 Responses to Wednesday update

    • fionamargaret says:

      …this is for Tony…..and Vive…

    • vivelaamo says:

      Thanks Fiona. There are some people that have been bearish and calling for a crash and long bear market since around 2012 and remain so today. The falls of 2015 completely get dismissed as if they didn’t happen. The fact we didn’t move anywhere for just under 2 years completely gets dismissed. What do these people want to see? It’s unbelievable.

      • fionamargaret says:

        I wondered if their 84.3 month cycle identified well with Tony’s work….and therein lies a prize for us all…

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