SHORT TERM: gap down opening then bounce, DOW -44
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5% – mostly India. Europe opened lower and lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and broke lower after Crude started selling off. At 8:30 the PPI was reported higher: 0.3% v 0.6%, and the FED started their 2-day FOMC meeting. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2366 and continued to decline. The SPX has closed at 2373 yesterday. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2358, then rallied back to 2366 by noon. Another pullback followed to SPX 2360 by 12:30, then a bounce into the close ended the day at 2365.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude dropped 45 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI, retail sales and the NY FED at 8:30; business inventories and the NAHB at 10am, then the FED’s rate decision at 2pm.
The market gapped down at the open today for the first time since last Monday – when the market was in the middle of its decline from SPX 2401 to 2355. Today’s selling again should be credited to the decline in Crude, which started last Wednesday at $53 and hit $47 today. At today’s Crude low the SPX hit 2358, nearly retracing all of the recent 2355-2377 rally. With the market not clearing SPX 2377 and instead heading lower, a rising Nano wave v may not be underway just yet. The economic activity over the next few days should clear up the short term count. Short term support is at SPX 2353/55 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum dropped down to oversold during the decline, then bounced back to neutral. Trade what’s in front of you! Swarm in an hour.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend