Monday update

SHORT TERM: quiet day, DOW -22

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were relatively unchanged overnight, and the market opened unchanged at SPX 2373. After a tick up to SPX 2374 in the opening minutes the market started to pullback. At 11:30 the market hit SPX 2369, then started drifting back up. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2374 and closed at 2373.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents. Gold was flat, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, and the FED starts its 2-day FOMC meeting.

The market opened unchanged today, ticked up one point, then spent the rest of the morning drifting sideways to lower. After that a bounce into the close ended the day unchanged. A Nor’easter in NYC and lots of important economic data ahead probably contributed to the quiet trading. Not much has changed coming off the potential SPX 2355 Nano iv was low. Thus far we have a rally to SPX 2377, a pullback to 2363, and another rally to 2374. Market needs to clear SPX 2377 next to get this potential Nano wave v on its way. Short term support is at SPX 2353/55 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum spent the whole day just above neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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93 Responses to Monday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    Support levels are holding. Bad signs for bears.

  2. kingfrogcash says:

    banks off their lows setting up for the FED decision Wednesday. Corporate pension money also due 3/15. Should be a really good Wednesday through Friday.

    • NEWBIE says:

      Corporate Pension Money? Tell me more.

      • kingfrogcash says:

        Corp’s matching contributions for 2016 taxes, are due 3/15. Big money inflows. So funds either dump their reserves in advance into the market. Or wait for it. Since we have not had a run up. I expect 15-18th to be funds buying stocks.

  3. tommyboys says:

    Newb, Fear Greed already back to 50 – neutral…

  4. phil1247 says:


    what number will the SPX close at today …………???

    this is an easy one

  5. phil1247 says:


    for longer term traders

    bearish below 49.33

    target of daily extension short is 46.23

    shorter term we are in a much more aggressive downside wave
    as the bounces reverse at .38 of short term extension shorts

    new mantra….. ” SELL into any / CL rally”

  6. micky says:

    To me the happenings down so far doesn’t matter whether its nano or whatever degree, fact is its corrective and not ones and twos down, so the downside is very limited.

    • NEWBIE says:

      LOL, ” the fact is” .. there is no guarantee the market is headed higher, it could have topped at 2400 for the next 20 years. Wave Counts can change on a dime.

      • phil1247 says:



        thats why i do NOT use EW in trading
        but only for bigger picture possibilities

      • micky says:

        The fact is if you made some serious effort to learn the difference between corrective and impulsive waves you would not have been on the wrong side of the market all these years. Of course it takes effort and time, its not meant for lazy people. This imo is the problem with most so called EW ers.

  7. tommyboys says:

    Trannies have now pulled back 5.2% from their near 9600 peak several days ago. 5 more % and it’s a correction (semabtics)…. Someone mentioned they lead this PB. Looks like it.

  8. channelsforall says:

    In looking at the wave structure (daily will do), the corrective wave we are in now is looking much bigger than nano ii. I know that technically nano iv can go down to 2300 (the top of nano i) but that fourth wave would be very large in comparison to the other nano waves. At roughly 2351 nano iv will be equal in size to micro 1 (50 pts) and at 2336 (also the 2335 pivot), nano iv will be twice nano ii. So nano iv although biggish in comparison to nano ii would still be OK.

    For anyone more versed in OEW than me (and that is basically everyone), what do you think are the % chance that nano v (and micro 3) ended at 2401, and that we are in an ABC of micro 4? My only problem is that we then face a rather “sloppy” nano iv wave completed in the area around 2358-2362-ish around March 1. Please explain why you think the way you do for the benefit of all (i.e. don’t just give a number without clarification). Micro 4 would not only allow a lot more retracement (up to 2283), but as micro 4 this current wave would better fit the time and size of the overall wave structure?

  9. llerias7 says:

    TC was expecting nano (V) to new highs? Seems more like micro (IV) or minor 4 in motion!…

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      Nano schmano

      All of the nano counts will be reworked

      Why on Earth do any of you think Elliot can accurately predict tiny moves?.

    • dan pulford says:

      Wrong #7, TC,”Market needs to clear SPX 2377 next to get this potential Nano wave v on its way.”

  10. Richard Glackin says:

    Looks to me like there are way too many 1-2’s in this drop in ES to stop anytime soon.

    • Richard Glackin says:

      What I am finding that is particularly interesting is the directional correlation between Silver and the S&P. It’s been correlating for several weeks and silver is now at a major inflection with convergence of many trend lines and channels. Figuratively silver has painted itself into a corner. And yes, it’s a triangle. However, I can’t for the life of me determine where to start the count in this triangle…could start at the top or, it could start at the bottom…big difference as to whether it breaks down (and directionally stays with the S&P) or breaks up which would also break the multi-week correlation with the S&P.

  11. Nice +div on R2000.On the bearish side,this is the 3rd day of being embedded.PPT where are you?Crude and IWM need you.

  12. 3 Down. And this is only the first that probably will find support at SPX 2351. Than a 2 and a 3 of 3 to follow.

  13. phil1247 says:


    bouncing at PFHILL PIVOT

    failure could mean wave 3 or C down is in force

  14. gary61b says:

    ES should take out blue dash line at 2360 then a bounce to 2375 level, but when is the question.

  15. phil1247 says:



    47.66 target hit!….
    . now bounce
    or continue collapse in new extension shorts

    • phil1247 says:

      taking 1/2 SCO profits if we dont crash thru target pronto!

      • phil1247 says:

        /CL vacillating at 47.66 target

        took half off SCO at 40.54…
        will pile on more shorts later when i can put in a stop

        • phil1247 says:

          new lows /CL
          anyone trading /cl…
          . note
          the 47.66 target was blown out .
          …now it is the .618 resistance of the new aggressive extension short level
          crazy how this stuff works ..
          . and without wondering

          ” what is the count ? “

  16. blackjak100 says:

    Anyone know why futes are ‘crashing’?

    • NEWBIE says:

      Yes because everyone is long and bullish. Banksters have the masses right where they want them.

      • tommyboys says:

        Paranoia will destroy ya – and Newb you’ve been paranoid for EVER! A 5-10-% pullback here would not be at all abnormal or inexpected after the 4 month rally. I’d expect something in the 3-5% variety here or soon. Even so just think if you woulda sold at Dow 10k or 12k or 16k because of your “bankster” paranois…?

      • NEWBIE says:

        11 quotes from Trump’s speech to Congress that show that the U.S. economy is in a state of collapse…

        #1 “Ninety-four million Americans are out of the labor force”
        #2 “Over 43 million people are now living in poverty”
        #3 “More than one in five people in their prime working years are not working”
        #4 “In the last eight years, the past administration has put on more new debt than nearly all of the other Presidents combined”
        #5 “We have the worst financial recovery in 65 years”
        #6 “Over 43 million Americans are on food stamps”
        #7 “We’ve lost more than one-fourth of our manufacturing jobs since NAFTA was approved”
        #8 “We’ve lost 60,000 factories since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001″
        #9 “Our trade deficit in goods with the world last year was nearly 800 billion dollars”
        #10 “Obamacare premiums nationwide have increased by double and triple digits. As an example, Arizona went up 116 percent last year alone.”
        #11  “We’ve spent trillions and trillions of dollars overseas, while our infrastructure at home has so badly crumbled”

        • tommyboys says:

          Newb all true but many of those Chinese factories are owned or controlled by US companies gaing profits from them. Baby Boomers – the largest segment of our population – began Retirement’s in earnest a few years ago which contribute hugely to the number of folks nonlonger working. Trump gave a sales speech with accurate info. But this doesn’t mean the market or economy are in bad shape. We also sold a record amount of cars last year, people’s savings are higher than before recession and income/debt ratios are as high as they’ve been in years. Any infrastructure spending will accelerate economy further. You can always twist statistics for fit your agenda or paranois at any minute for sure.

          • tommyboys says:

            Paranoia! Excuse typos…

          • NEWBIE says:

            Yes I’m paranoid but prepared. Do you think the newb is gonna be wrong forever and do you think if the market crashes its not gonna be out of nowhere and catch the masses (Bulls like you) off guard?

            • tommyboys says:

              Most folks I know are prudent and fully pricing in a correction. Huge crashes are extremely rare events that cannot be timed. Hedging always wise but waiting on “crashes” will bankrupt you as most biggies occur maybe once/generation. We’ve had two in under a generation so the likelihood of another anytime soon is remote. Chronically holding puts will break you as well. Holding cash at .25% will break you to. Market broke out of a multi-year top couple tears ago. We could always retedt that area but thatbevent marked a new secular bull kicking off. Couldvrun a decade or more – with corrections along way of course.

            • tommyboys says:

              Further Newb I’m not sure how large a “crash” can occur with the AAII at 46% bears last week(?) Always possible but … could just be a grinder sideways to down for a while? Have a good one -over limit.

            • vivelaamo says:

              This doesn’t make sense if this time last year it was at extreme greed because we continued to rally for months!

        • dwr51 says:

          It should be obvious to you and everyone else that just because Trump said it , that does not make it true. Could quote many instances but don’t want to start a political discussion on an investment blog.

        • phil1247 says:

          sorry wave diver

          news does not make the market

          this collapse has been ongoing long before that news ..

          now ALL news will be BAD news
          because the trend is down to 10 dollars

          • tommyboys says:

            With Trump promoting fossil fuels, drilling, fracking, even coal, the Mideast will have to try and push prices down to discourage competition. Won’t work of course and great for US consumer and industry outside of energy. Ok, NOW I’m gone 😎.

          • wavediver says:

            take a pill, phil. that article was this morning. not an explanation for the last 30 days, nor for the next 30 days.

    • fotis2 says:

      Phil is still short is why 😉

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      Because they actually believe it or not can

      And contrary to your terminology that was not crashing. I know people think anything more than 4 handles is a crash these days

  17. vivelaamo says:

    Longer we consolidate the more uneasy one can feel. But once in a while it’s worth looking at the weekly or even daily and you can clearly see the long term uptrend. Nothing wrong with this pb at all.

  18. Thanks Tony. Going to be getting my groove on with Stella tomorrow. Slow day for sure.

    • fionamargaret says:

      • fionamargaret says:

        BFQ, I cannot tell you how much joy it was to look through different copies of Bach to choose one.
        I really liked the soft blend of orchestra to voice in this one (plus the footage was interesting).
        If you would like the entire work, and have a favourite rendering, please let me know.
        It has been quite a while since I have listened to this, and it is providing a calming background to my writing. x

        • blubrd67 says:

          Karl Richter for me anytime.. but it’s hard to be “critical” with Bach performances like this… I just get drawn in and forget to be critical.

          • fionamargaret says:

            This was the best by far of the shorter versions Blu, but I don’t know if this is the chorus he found so stirring (see Weekend Update).
            I was sent Karl Richter’s entire version from someone in Germany, within a few moments of my writing (and also a Bach Mass).
            I usually find Russians send really interesting material.
            Thank you Blu. x

  19. Thanks Tony. As you observed, it was a very lazy inside day with higher lows and lower highs and a marginally higher close. Just played hourly support and resistance in a six point range While volume was lower in the cash market, the mix of volume in ES was far more favorable than Friday with increased buying after 1:30; and both markets closed towards their respective highs which is generally favorable. Because of seasonality and the history of March OPEX, I remain conditionally bullish but as I said over the weekend this market has to close above 2180 to have any chance of putting in a new high. Tony wants to see 2277. And even above 2180, its a bit of an obstacle course with 2384 and 2395 significant hurdles. This puppy has a lot of work to do with and oil and Washington remaining headwinds. With respect oil, Bernanke (hat tip Phil) concluded there was correlation between the market and oil but it seems to be particularly tight when WTI falls below $52/53 possibly because of the burdened break-even cost for shale producers is in the range of $50 to 55. The market moved higher from August, 2013 to August 2015 with oil falling but when oil gets below the $52/53 level it would appear the market takes notice and softens. These observations are largely anecdotal and are contaminated with co-factors, such as wave counts, and I will likely invest further time in looking at it. But I sense a correlation, particularly when thresholds are broken. Lastly, some of the people I talk to believe the market will LIKELY take a rate hike in stride and expect the $ and 10yr yields to fall after the announcement. The opposite was true before 2003 ish but because we have many moving parts I will wait and see before entertaining any bond or currency trades.

  20. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $DJIA at

  21. Hugh Jazole says:

    Any thoughts on the DJT?

    • locanbbs says:

      Set up for buy-signal with general bounce middle of the week — Wed.-Thurs. (?). The Trannies led the correction down & are most oversold; they will probably lead back up, together with the Ndx, which never really fell.

  22. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks –
    We noted last week that “S&P futures are showing a potential five-wave decline from its all time high, suggesting the pullback (degree uncertain at the moment) is likely not over.” Today’s price action remains consistent with such potentials. See updated charts.

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