Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then pullback, DOW +45

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 monthly payrolls were reported higher: 235K v 223K, and the unemployment rate improved: 4.7% v 4.8%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2376 and immediately began to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2365 yesterday. After a 5 point pullback the SPX rallied to 2377 by 10am. Then Crude headed lower and took the SPX with it. At 11am the SPX hit 2367, bounced to 2372 by 11:30, then closed the gap when hitting 2363 at 1pm. After that the market started to work its way higher. At 2pm the budget deficit was reported slightly lower: -$192.0B v -$192.6B. The rally continued into the close and the SPX ended the week at 2373.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude dropped 80 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 59.5% v 60.2%, and this week the Q1 GDP estimated was lowered: 1.2% v 1.8%.

The market gapped up at the open today for the first time since a week ago Wednesday when the SPX hit its all-time high of 2401. After a quick pullback the SPX hit a higher level at 2377. Then Crude oil seemed to take center stage. When Crude broke $49, on its way to $48.30, the SPX followed it lower. By 1pm the SPX had closed the gap and hit 2363. After that Crude seemed to stabilize and the market started to rise again. At this morning’s open we labeled yesterday’s SPX 2355 low with a tentative green Nano wave iv. Nano wave v should now be underway. Short term support remains at SPX 2353/55 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum hit overbought, after yesterday’s positive divergence, and ended the week just above neutral. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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26 Responses to Friday update

  1. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Short-term (??!) downtrend already showing on charts, probably lasting till Wednesday-Thursday (= major market cycle bottom). Ndx is the best of the major indicies now. The others have already overlapped 1-2. Bounce probable at latest Thursday, but if 1-2 are overlapped also on the Ndx, then uptrend could be over!

  2. Here’s another opinion,which sounds pretty good.AG Thorson thinks gold needs to fall until June to make a new low-which would set up the buy of the year.I’ll be interested to see if this materializes.

    • kvilia says:

      OMG, there is so much BS (noise) out there. How in the world GDX components go up and GDX goes down??? And no, gold does not have to make a new low. I just hope we get one heck of a panic selling in miners into Wed for a nice entry.

      • The only observation I can make is,these lows he has marked, seem like they ARE no doubt lows…not like this 1045 number that went up and hooked down again.Doesn’t seem like it should do that trick at all.I wouldn’t be upset if I could get in around July with gold at 1000 and GDX at 7.Even Mr C might jump in…lol.

  3. In the bi-polar world of P&F charts….here’s the latest to chew on:
    GOLD:1429 price objective
    ABX:31 from 18ish now.
    NEM:29 from 35ish now.
    I think P&F stands for Puzzled and Flummoxed.

  4. Kimball thinking dollar will take off like S&P did.But DXY closed down today to 101.38…getting closer to the breakout point.What if its a false breakout?An interesting turn of events if THAT happens.
    Gold stocks MAY be starting a 10% shortcovering rally.Still buried,but due for SOMETHING positive.A dollar fade would help.Good luck all.

    • cyanus66 says:

      Thanks learned. Kimble is correct, despite the fact that his charts are only short term.
      USD successfully backtested the 92 pivot, significant since the late 90s.
      Next PTs are the 115+ zone, and 128.
      At least that’s how I’m playing this, with UUP.

  5. Hi,thanks Tony
    Maybe a BARR in Lead in phase if it holds on trendline

  6. mjtplayer says:

    REIT’s in danger of a major breakdown, if rates continue higher from here than this sector could accelerate lower. ICF must hold the $95 area on a weekly basis in the coming weeks, otherwise the uptrend from 2010 will be broken. The ICF has never closed, on a weekly basis, below this 7yr trend-line. A drop and close below $93.02 (Nov lows) could trigger panic selling. Watching this sector closely for a hold and rally, or a potential breakdown.

    A closer look:

    It should come as no surprise that real estate is grossly under-performing with higher interest rates.

    • torehund says:

      Interesting find Mjp, oil and real estate under pressure and rates about to exit the gates. Martin figured this out a long time ago, and Oct 2015 was his Wave 2 recoup after the 2007 real-estate crash. Its spooky how he time after time is spot on without drawing any attention to his surgical precision forecasting. When Putin entered Syria (at this specific date) American expansionism came to a halt, wars dwindled and so did spending, thus strengthening the dollar. Can there be any free will when one man, aided by pi analysis, decenniums in advance can pinpoint to the day such major changes ?

    • blackjak100 says:

      Why are homebuilding stocks crushing it with rates rising?

  7. Thanks Tony. Yesterday you mentioned 2367 as a validation level for nano v. Is that because you view it as the trading level at or above all the clutter preceding lift off?

  8. mtu MTU says:

    MTU weekly commentary – Five Down (3/10/17)
    We are at a Fib-8 year high from the 2009 bottom. S&P futures are showing a potential five-wave decline from its all time high, suggesting the pullback (degree uncertain at the moment) is likely not over. See charts.

  9. CB says:

    Thanks Tony. Great call yesterday.
    Gary Cohn was pretty good today too, right? …. made Goldilocks extremely happy with his “revenue-neutral” tax cut idea 🙂
    Have a nice weekend Tony and everyone!

  10. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony and all, and happy weekend 🐎🐎🐎 The trend is your friend, and what we SEE is oil and biotech finally diverging in earnest. Its challenging and substrate for furthering our minds to crêep into our myopic Ew universe, that said what index longs have to is to sit, its that simple where we are at 🐑🐑🐑🐑 And if what we see isnt what we get, well we are all victims or successors of circumstance of our own cycles and Waves,, so Dont blame yourself nor others if misfortune strikes.

  11. Bud Fox says:

    Tank you, Tony….Have a great weekend.

  12. dan pulford says:

    Excellent work Tony, always appreciate your analysis. You may have nailed that 4th wave down.

  13. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al for a week of great OEW daily updates; good weekend to everyone.

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