SHORT TERM: pullback makes lower low, DOW +2
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 243K v 223K, and export (0.3% v 0.1%)/import (0.3% v -0.2%) prices were reported higher. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2363 close, then rose to 2369 just past 10am. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2355 just past 2pm. After that it declined to SPX 2355 just past 2pm. It then rallied to SPX 2366 by 3:30, before dipping to 2365 to end the day.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude dropped 60 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls (est. 200K) at 8:30, then the budget deficit at 2pm.
The market opened slightly lower today, had a small rally, then dropped to a new low for the pullback. Thus far the pullback has declined from SPX 2401 to 2355, or 46 points. This decline is now the largest pullback since the uptrend began in early November at SPX 2084. Today’s decline triggered an update to the short term DOW count. It now displays a Micro wave 3 in place, with a Micro wave 4 of Minute wave iii underway. The SPX count still displays a Nano wave iii in place, with a Nano wave iv underway. Both hourly charts are up to date. The slight difference in short term wave degrees is nothing unusual. By time this uptrends ends, one or both will be correct. Today’s late-afternoon 11 point rally matched the largest rally of this entire pullback. Should the SPX hit 2367 next, we will place a tentative green Nano wave iv label at the 2355 low. Short term support remains at SPX 2353 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum displayed a positive divergence at today’s low. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend