Thursday update

SHORT TERM: pullback makes lower low, DOW +2

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 243K v 223K, and export (0.3% v 0.1%)/import (0.3% v -0.2%) prices were reported higher. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2363 close, then rose to 2369 just past 10am. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2355 just past 2pm. After that it declined to SPX 2355 just past 2pm. It then rallied to SPX 2366 by 3:30, before dipping to 2365 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.10%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude dropped 60 cents, Gold slid $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly payrolls (est. 200K) at 8:30, then the budget deficit at 2pm.

The market opened slightly lower today, had a small rally, then dropped to a new low for the pullback. Thus far the pullback has declined from SPX 2401 to 2355, or 46 points. This decline is now the largest pullback since the uptrend began in early November at SPX 2084. Today’s decline triggered an update to the short term DOW count. It now displays a Micro wave 3 in place, with a Micro wave 4 of Minute wave iii underway. The SPX count still displays a Nano wave iii in place, with a Nano wave iv underway. Both hourly charts are up to date. The slight difference in short term wave degrees is nothing unusual. By time this uptrends ends, one or both will be correct. Today’s late-afternoon 11 point rally matched the largest rally of this entire pullback. Should the SPX hit 2367 next, we will place a tentative green Nano wave iv label at the 2355 low. Short term support remains at SPX 2353 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum displayed a positive divergence at today’s low. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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91 Responses to Thursday update

  1. dan pulford says:

    RUT looks like it finished a zz at 2PM, bottom could be in.

  2. phil1247 says:

    SPX

    bullish above …………..(.what other number could it possibly be ?) 2363

    target 2382

    have a great weekend Tony

  3. NEWBIE says:

    Very quiet in here, i guess once 2363 breaks then it will liven up

  4. Bud Fox says:

    GDX and GLD, are worth looking at, if metals market interest you – longside….

  5. llerias7 says:

    USO falling 2,5%…Crude is in Deep Trouble…Is Yellen going to raise rates on top of this?? If so she is preparing a Bear Feast!

  6. blackjak100 says:

    I think this pb indicates a subdividing nano v (wave 2). Internals still extremely oversold. 2365 must hold however.

  7. micky says:

    vst support area

  8. llerias7 says:

    Houston, we are going down!! Heading 2300´s…(?)

  9. magnus1234 says:

    DAX30: A top reached?

    My EW count of DAX30 suggest it has completed an EDT in a 5 suggesting a pullback starting today.

    DAX30 1H: http://www.screencast.com/t/HINz4xa6
    DAX30 Daily: http://www.screencast.com/t/jyUu2DBkym

  10. NEWBIE says:

    200 point drop coming, SELL SELL SELL

  11. Todays Gartman tidbit:Why Japan’s lousy demographics are bullish.
    ” Why, then, would any prudent investor be willing to bet on Japanese stocks? An answer comes from Dennis Gartman, the financial adviser and publisher of the Gartman Letter, who earlier this week enthusiastically turned bullish on Japanese equities as a long-term holding. His reason to turn bullish: Robots.

    In essence, Gartman explained in an interview, robots are enabling Japanese corporations to turn a demographic liability into an asset. Once roboticized, those corporations will easily outperform firms from other countries that are more dependent on labor.”
    –Marketwatch
    Maybe he’ll be better on long term predictions…lol.

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Maybe Bill Gates will convince the Japanese to tax those job-stealing robots in order continue to subsidize the human couch potatoes standard of living. 😉

      • The question is,will the robots have to take their shoes off when they eat dinner with the family?
        Actually EL MAT,with cars driving themselves,robots and automation replacing humans…what are we going to do…blog about the new robot world?From the outside,looking in?Doesn’t sound too satisfying an existence.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      My question is has anyone watched ‘Humans’? Hot robot sex surrogates…the Japanese will never reproduce again!

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      maybe if Robots pay taxes and buy consumer goods and homes in Japan. That might be possible. Robots will be real people in Japan and solve Japan’s crappy demographics and lack of immigration. I see it now. Gartman is spot on.

      Wait a second I just woke up from a dream……………….their situation is unsolvable…………Japan is doomed. Sorry that robot dream was a doozy.

      • Too many people with idle hands and nothing to do is not the optimum scenario for people–unless we are a transitory species,here to program the robots for the next million years of earth dwellers.When they start building themselves,you know we’re on the way out the door.

  12. Not trading correctly, maybe because it is Friday, or better because it is a B wave.

  13. phil1247 says:

    HD

    you wanted targets in advance

    just for you …

    extension short on /CLJ7 traded at .38 level 50.11
    it is possible to go straight down to target from there
    but 50.57 would be ideal short entry ( .50 level)

    target 47.65

  14. vivelaamo says:

    Making me sweat with the RUT!

  15. llerias7 says:

    SPX must not hesitate / fail in overcame 2380´s, otherwise micro 4 takes hold and go down to 2330´s…

  16. phil1247 says:

    SWARM said 0% bond allocation

    had to buy bonds on spike up this am

  17. mcgcapital says:

    Took 20 points on FTSE longs this morning and switched short at 7350. Looking at the charts sterling is due a decent rally as it’s getting oversold on the daily and I think the trend in oil is now clearly down. Obviously there’s the usual NFP rally risk but I don’t think it holds at these levels. Got a stop at 7370 and will sell again near 7400 if it got there.

  18. Bud Fox says:

    3/17 was an SP top, just as 8/18/16 was….

  19. vivelaamo says:

    Taken from RJ courtesy of Fiona.

    To that “debt ceiling” point, will everyone stop sending me the story about David Stockman’s article that “After March 15 everything will grind to a halt.” His reference is that the economic world is in for a meltdown. I spoke with David at a Minyanville “Festivus Party” seven or eight years ago and he was saying the same thing back then. He was, and is, a very smart fellow who captained The Office of Management and Budget during part of the Reagan administration, but he has been “smartly wrong” for a very long time. So please, stop sending me his negative article from Zero Hedge.

  20. vivelaamo says:

    RUT. 50% of Dec to Mar held, stochs reversing and downward channel to break today to the upside. Guess what? Soon time to add baby!!

  21. McConnell repeats…no tax cut til next year.GDP est at 1.2%.Profits estimates getting reduced.How can you have a GDP this bad with unemployment at 4.8%.I think I asked the same question about Japan a couple months ago.I may start nibbling on GDX as gold nears 1160-1180 range.It’s possible I should have today–for tomorrow.Too late now.The best day is Fed day to jump on PMs.We’ll see.Gold breaking 1200 tonight…some support at 1194.That support is comparable to expecting a training bra to support Sofia Vergara.From the futes and Nikkei,looks like Yellen,Draghi and Abe are buying–no matter what the #s are tomorrow.G’night all.

    • fotis2 says:

      LOL you made my day a training bra?I’ve heard a lot of Market related comparisons but this one takes top marks!

    • fionamargaret says:

      Well, L, Bloomberg is comparing bonds’ performance to Nixon 1974.
      I have TLT as a buy at around 116 for a trade…and then there. is the sequence that has TLT with a really high number in a sequence which is still viable. There are quite a few scenarios that would make long-dated treasuries attractive…maybe the scenarios not so much…
      My oil long today has a low of 47 possible within the pattern (the “flexible” 50 base).
      Are we back to my earlier suggestion of having to choose between reflation or commodities have peaked…..
      You are writing really interesting stuff……

  22. blackjak100 says:

    I’ve been saying for 2+ years rates is the big driver of this bull

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/839887926423007232

  23. stormchaser80llc says:

    I thought the ECB would be a spark, but it came and went without much of a blip from the market. SPX hourly made a new lower low, but extended positive divergences in doing so. After hours, price action looks bullish again, now comfortably higher than the falling wedge (bull flag?), and above the 2071 upper trading level before the March 1st ramp higher. SPX could go to a new All Time High soon. However, once must be careful here as Breadth is weak, my signals are neutral/bearish, and my proprietary Technicals Model remains depressed. Fairly confident in an oil bounce here.

    My site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com) is completely FREE. However, be advised that I do ask folks to take a few seconds to register for a log-in, making sure you agree to my legal documents.

  24. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks –
    Potential five-wave decline in ES from the high. If so, expect another wave of decline following a rebound (to perhaps the 2380 area). See chart.
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2017/03/market-timing-update-3917.html

  25. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Major indicies were pulling at the reins, especially Ndx, so I bought at Buy-signal (Blue arrow in white ring on chart). But another shakeout was needed before breaking out. This is the second of FOUR market bottoms set this week and next. Looks like the next two are being overrun. THE MARKET JUST WANTS TO GO UP!
    Chart: ndx hourly futures –

    • fionamargaret says:

    • fionamargaret says:

      If you have not much experience in classical music, go to about 21 minutes in, shut your eyes and let your mind go right into the music…if you try this a few times, you will find you know where the music is going….that it is following natural progressions and tempo.
      The same can be taken to the stock market…if you look at nothing but numbers, they become notes…a composition…and the sequences they have formed up until now, creates a visual of the future….it is all in your head, you just have not used that part of your brain enough for it to become second nature….but trust me, it is there….x

  26. Hey Tony and friends … just stopped by to say “Big Up!” Hope all are well 🙂

  27. torehund says:

    The big IF, Chandlier denotes hold when its above the blue line and sell when its below…Note the false move in 2015, and the “possibly real move” that we are now experiencing.

    • torehund says:

      ..also note the Macd : From Sept 2013 an a down until Feb 2015, b up to July 2015 and a c down until where we are today. The c wave is “floating” as the length is equal to a-wave and doesnt make a lower low.

  28. blackjak100 says:

    Market would open up +10 as of now. Extremely unusual before NFP which usually sees a tight range. Could see a pretty big -div on NYAD if 2401 gets exceeded.


  29. Gartman turned bullish on oil a while back.I posted that at the time.Here’s his result.Today he got out,with the chart showing his talent for bad timing..Even stocks have pulled back.He’s something else.

  30. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at tradingchannels.uk

  31. blackjak100 says:

    Hard to believe we have the lowest NYMO reading since Jan 2016. That was after a 300pt+ plunge over 6+ months. Today’s reading came after a 46pt plunge over 6 days.

  32. mcgcapital says:

    Looking for longs on the FTSE tomorrow morning. This rebound now looks identical (with the hammer candle) to the one a week last Friday which was followed by a ramp. It’s also NFP and I can’t remember the last time the market went down in the afternoon afterwards. Must be nearly a year ago. As much as I’d like a proper correction it just feels unlikely that it will ever happen.

  33. Thanks Tony. Yesterday I posted a comment but was unable to attract your attention so a redacted version is pasted below. For a trade I was very confident about 55 (54.50) and was short from the morning highs and added when buying cratered and pulled back a few points. And believing an interim bottom is in, I rode it back up. Not bragging, just a good day.

    Thanks Tony, If you were to undertake an examination of the retracement levels from 2401 would not the starting point be at 2267, the bottom of nano ii? I hope because so I have prepared two Fib schedules: the one on the left is anchored between 2267 and 2401 and the other anchored between 2234 and 2401. On a daily basis, there are two days in the trading range prior to lift off with lows at 2355 which should make for an interesting level. https://www.tradingview.com/x/c7S9rTTs/ PS, glad you changed the color of nano iii.

    • tony caldaro says:

      yes read it yesterday
      kudos to your trading

      • What about the Fib anchors?

        • lunker1 says:

          OEW: an Objective approach to the Elliott Wave Theory

          Thus far the pullback has declined from SPX 2401 to 2355, or 46 points. This decline is now the largest pullback since the uptrend began in early November at SPX 2084. Today’s decline triggered an update to the short term DOW count. It now displays a Micro wave 3 in place, with a Micro wave 4 of Minute wave iii underway. The SPX count still displays a Nano wave iii in place, with a Nano wave iv underway. Both hourly charts are up to date. The slight difference in short term wave degrees is nothing unusual. By time this uptrends ends, one or both will be correct. Today’s late-afternoon 11 point rally matched the largest rally of this entire pullback. Should the SPX hit 2367 next, we will place a tentative green Nano wave iv label at the 2355 low. Short term support remains at SPX 2353 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum displayed a positive divergence at today’s low.

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