Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -30

Overnight the Asian markets finished mixed. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the trade deficit was reported higher: -$48.5B v -$44.3B. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2375 close, moved down to 2367, and then tried to rally. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 2375. After that the market worked its way lower again. At 3pm consumer credit was reported lower: $8.8B v $14.2B. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit 2366, then bounced to close at 2368.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.20%. Bonds slipped 6 ticks, Crude dipped 10 cents, Gold dropped $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15 and wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened lower today for the fourth day in a row. In the opening minutes the SPX made a new pullback low at 2367, then tried to rally. The pullback from last Wednesday’s all-time high at SPX 2401 was then 34-points, which was exactly equal to the Nano ii pullback in late January. After 9 small waves up from the Nano ii low at SPX 2267 to SPX 2401, this pullback certainly looks like a Nano wave iv. Expecting this pullback to bottom quite soon, and a rising Nano v to be underway. Short term support is at SPX 2353 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum ended the day with a positive divergence. Best to your trading! Today’s Swarm information is below.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

SWARM: our weekly meeting is again today at 5pm eastern. This week’s survey https://www.research.net/r/JT838LP, please complete before entering the swarm. To enter the private swarm use this link: https://go.unu.ai/unums/2382. If you are new and would like to join us follow the directions using this link: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/swarm-intelligence/.

About tony caldaro

Investor
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112 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    SP500 prog low is now 2250…but no date setup as yet.
    Thus, this area of SP price should be a good trading low.
    for a W4 low…..

  2. phil1247 says:

    /es

    shorts put on at 2368.
    ..sold half at target 2361

    will pile on shorts if thru target

  3. purplember says:

    CL on 60min chart. RSI at .80 (under 1) i don’t think i have ever seen more oversold RSI.

  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    What was resistance becomes support and what was support becomes resistance

    I know many bills find the latter hard to believe but they both are equally true believe it or not.

  5. johnnymagicmoney says:

    So everyone an their mother said bonds and gold lower stocks and commodities higher

    Wouldn’t that be a gas (nonpun intended) if bonds and gold rallied and stocks and commodities went down. It’s not as if oil inventories have been tight….They have been bloated for a while. When the market decides to screw long oils they will. It was a amazing they kept it propped for so long.

  6. cj32 says:

    $WTIC…cr. to CBZ

  7. vivelaamo says:

    what’s with the oil move?

  8. phil1247 says:

    sold SCO

    /cl target within pennies

  9. Jordi G says:

    Is nano V underway, already?


  10. Maybe this chart will appear and show what happens after GDX has been riding the lower BB for 7 days(with other circumstances thrown in.)Short covering rally likely with a 10% gain possible.From Seeking alpha.Good luck all.

  11. purplember says:

    CL nasty drop. breaking support levels

  12. phil1247 says:

    TLT /ZB

    BONDS triangle breaking to down side

    extension short target
    and post triangle thrust targets
    both point to 113.5

  13. mcgcapital says:

    Short again here on the FTSE at 7350. Struggling to make much progress to the upside despite sterling collapsing. US indices look like a short covering move on trump’s speech last week followed by a full retrace. Looks like a drop back in to the range is more likely than higher highs.

  14. Been reading about WHY the gold miners might be headed for a meeting with the Tidy Bowl man…the border adjustment tax!Supposedly would cause less gold to be imported.That’s the excuse.Also read this tax was good for the dollar.To me,this border adjustment tax neutralizes any middle class tax cut–it will cut consumption as prices go up–bad for the dollar.Look what happened in Philly,they imposed a tax on soda pop and consumption dried up to the point where layoffs are occurring.
    One analyst said it perfectly today:It’s like taking blood out of your left arm and putting it in your right arm.

  15. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY/SPX Charted on ES ~ WS to WR Swing Trade?

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/EWHW5rOF/

  16. gary61b says:

    ES lets see if 2373.5 is it for this up move.

  17. mjtplayer says:

    Still expecting a bounce in GDX, but time is running short as the slow and steady grind lower in gold continues; $1,190 still on target.

    • Richard Glackin says:

      What the chances that this latest move down from 2400 to say 2353 is the ‘A’ wave?

      • reddragonleo says:

        Good question… but I’m really not an expert on wave counts. I’d ask Tony on that one. But I do think that “based on the technical’s” there is another wave down coming. So.. that would indeed suggest that the first wave down is some degree of an A wave and this move up today would be some kind of B wave, leaving a C wave down yet to come.

        Most likely we’ll see this wave up breakdown into a smaller set of waves (like an ABC up) where we see a small move back down later today or tomorrow to make a higher low then yesterday’s low… which then will make a nice “inverted head and shoulders” pattern. That could (should) lead to a rally up to possibly the 2385 area?

        Of course that whole move up might only be a smaller ABC up to make the B wave up and leave the door open for a C wave (to maybe 2340 area?) which we might not see until this Friday… and the “employment situation” could be the news event to blame the move down on? All speculation of course…

  18. phil1247 says:

    tore

    sold 1/2 TBT 41.33

    may have to rebuy later when i can put in a stop

  19. Bud Fox says:

    Question: are we at the “bottom”, in crude oil ??

  20. phil1247 says:

    GOLD

    why no stick save for gold?

    collapse continues on track

  21. tommyboys says:

    On this day, in 1817, the NY stock exchange was founded….Happy 200th!

  22. phil1247 says:

    /es

    small long from 2365….
    highly speculative

  23. vivelaamo says:

    As Oscar Carbon would say. Do not fall in love with the downside!!


  24. Moe’s latest.Even more bearish now.Says there’s a chance of a bounce to 1275,but the potential of a big gold rally is over.Subject to change of course.

  25. torehund says:

    Tony if the recent top was the END of the nano wave lets see how much furter it will retrace. According to the 60 min histogram the macd may turn up soon. Rest of the nano wave retrace may end up flat or with an upward tilt.

  26. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/iv3ETA?image

    /ES

    2361 extension short target blown out
    new target 2351
    there is an even more aggressive ext short ( not shown)
    which unless there is a miracle stick save will give us a hugely gap down open
    gapping below the 2363 PIVOT

    tony caldaro says:
    March 7, 2017 at 3:20 pm
    that’s the PFHIL pivot 😉

  27. stormchaser80llc says:

    Let’s review. SPX daily had only 1 negative divergence at its recent All Time High, so its bullish. SPX hourly had no negative divergences at the ATH, but it pulled back regardless. My LONG signal is a ‘NO’ for the 7th day in a row, signaling a neutral position is best right now. And today was the 3rd day that my other trusty indicator (not shown) was bearish.

    I have been searching for a place to sell my longs, but the market has yet to give it to me, moving sideways with a downward bias. Perhaps the after hours action was the flush that was needed to take advantage of the positive divergences seen on the SPX hourly with a bullish bias in the short term. Oil is in crappy territory below its 20/50 dma. HYG;IEF fell to its 20 dma, perhaps time for a bounce? Breadth does not look good, and neither is my proprietary Technicals Model, making a negative reading for the first time in over a month.

    Much much more at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com/) which is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  28. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Heavy this and next week with three short-term and one major market cycle bottoms. In one week — next Thursday at latest — it will be over, and the market should take off again. If not too much damage is done in the meantime!

  29. Thanks Tony. The market drilled deeper into a trading range with a ceiling at 2372 and a bottom at at 2353 with 2362/2363 an interesting level as that is the point of liftoff for the March 1st surge following Trump’s widely applauded speech before congress the day before. I’m probably more pessimistic than most but believe this level should offer should offer an interim bottom before going lower…..maybe to 51 which is very close to the 38.2% Fib level drawn from the bottom of nano ii to 2401. On many occasions, after a surge on the back of a Fed announcement, I have seen the market return to where it was prior to the Fed meeting. Same logic. I don’t feel nano v will kick in until some of the problems hanging over Washington are resolved. My humble view.

  30. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $GBPUSD at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  31. llerias7 says:

    Tony, the green (III) it is the probable top of nano (iii) ?

  32. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/CDKC9e?image

    the 2363 PIVOT lines up perfectly with the .38 retrace of the daily extension long

    this will be the first encounter with the daily ext long
    and i will be interested to see what reaction there is to it

    still no reason to be long SPX ……yet

    • pooch77 says:

      Maybe a weak counter rally then new lows into the 20th

    • ewmarkets says:

      Phil, what are your anchor points for this 0.38 retracement (2363 area?) can’t see your chart very well.

      • phil1247 says:

        did you click on it??

        it should be very detailed

        • phil1247 says:

          does anyone else have trouble seeing the chart after you click on it?

        • ewmarkets says:

          Yes, I clicked on it. The big chart opens up and it is clear whatever is on the chart. But you have many lines there and it is hard to make out which lines go together. So for example, you have multiple 50% lines, which means you drew multiple fib retracements. So it is hard to figure out which lines go together as 1 retracement. For 2365 area to be 38.2%, the top (0%) line is the all time high, that I can infer. But where is the 100% line?

        • ewmarkets says:

          Phil, another thing about your chart that throws me off is that your highest point (0% line) is below 2400. Specifically, it looks like 2396 as opposed to 2400.98. Are you only using hourly close price?

      • phil1247 says:

        draw fib from 2300 to 2400

        i have the .38 fib almost invisible
        otherwise chat would be a mess with fibs

        • ewmarkets says:

          Thanks. The equivalent on the ES is 2362.5 and it has been reached. 61.8% on ES seems to be 2338.25, which would be bad if broken.

    • lunker1 says:

      I want to follow what you post about but I agree it’s difficult to see in your charts which fibs are part of which retracement set. I’d suggest adding labels or use a different color code for the different sets. Thx.

      • phil1247 says:

        ok i wont be posting as many charts
        because i dont want to take off fibs that i have on
        i realize that it may be hard to understand when i have 3 fibs on

        so i will make a new chart
        with just one fib on when i want to show something

        • 123 abc says:

          Would also like to follow your calls phil1247 and appreciate your charts; however, agree with lunker1 that its difficult to work out where and why the fibs have been placed.

          1. For example, in the following chart (http://tos.mx/iv3ETA?image), the most recent trend is down starting from 2401 to 2360 thus far; but why has the fib been placed from 2389 instead of the 2401 high? And also, how did you know to place the corresponding fib at the current 2360 low?

          2. Do you mostly place fibs on 1-hr charts and trade that timeframe?

        • lunker1 says:

          , so you’re not measuring the end higher and Paul’s you’re just measuring the Delta of the new impulse from the prior high? It would help a whole lot if you could explain why you pick the prices that establish your Fibonacci sets.

          • lunker1 says:

            That should say…so you’re not measuring the entire impulse from end to end

          • phil1247 says:

            this has nothing to do with elliott wave
            which is very fickle
            with confusion and changing counts
            this is a simple yes /no process

            • lunker1 says:

              Yes I understand it has nothing to do with Elliot and it simply on price but trying to understand how the prices are established. I watched the emini daily update video. See my comments below to vive

      • vivelaamo says:

        Lunker watch emini free daily updates.

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