Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -51

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight and the market opened at SPX 2373. The SPX had closed at 2383 on Friday. At 10am, as the market drifted lower, factory orders were reported higher: 1.2% v 1.3%. At 11am the SPX hit 2368 and then started to rally. The rally continued until 3:30 when the SPX hit 2379. Then a pullback into the close ended the day at SPX 2375.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.30%. Bonds slipped 2 ticks, Crude dipped 15 cents, Gold lost $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: the trade deficit at 8:30, then consumer credit at 3pm.

The market opened below Friday’s SPX 2375 low, and continued down to 2368 before rallying for the rest of the day. The market had spent six consecutive trading days vacillating above and below the SPX 2360’s, before gapping up last Wednesday and hitting SPX 2401. Now three days after that gap up the market went back into the SPX 2360’s. Also at today’s low the market had pulled back 33 points from the SPX 2401 high. The largest pullback since late-January’s 34 point pullback for Nano wave ii. This pullback certainly has the appearances of a Nano wave iv. Ideally the market should retest today’s low Tuesday or Wednesday, or slightly lower, set up a short term positive divergence, then start to rise in Nano wave v. Short term support remains at SPX 2353 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum rose from oversold to neutral during this afternoon’s rally. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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101 Responses to Monday update

  1. Thank you Tony C.

  2. phil1247 says:

    looks like 2363 PIVOT will be tested

  3. Here’s one to go alongside Hindenburg Omen signals.
    Why ominous ‘Ohama(not Obama…lol) Titanic Syndrome’ may signal a downturn for stock-market investors

    By Mark DeCambre

    Published: Mar 7, 2017 1:10

    The number of NYSE-listed stocks that hit 52-week lows exceeded those that hit 52-week highs for the first time since Nov. 4

    Rough waters ahead for stock investors says the Ohama Titanic Syndrome?

    A warning sign is flashing on Wall Street and highlighting growing uneasiness among investors that the stock market-rally inspired by President Donald Trump’s pro-business policies may be starting to unwind.

    On Monday, the number of New York Stock Exchange-traded stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeded those that hit 52-week highs for the first time since Nov. 4, signaling a pause in the run-up in equities that has resulted in a rash of all-time highs for the Dow Jones IndustrialDJIA, -0.09% the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.14% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.03%  since the election.

    Prominent chart specialist Tom McClellan on Tuesday said that when lows surpass highs, within seven trading days of a 1-year high for the S&P 500, it flashes an Ohama Titanic Syndrome signal. The spooky sounding chart moniker was coined by Bill Ohama in 1965, and is viewed as a “preliminary sell signal,” according to McClellan. The S&P 500 put inits most recent closing high of 2,395.96 on March 1, along with the Dow industrials which registered a high of 21,115.55 on the same day.

    Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group, noticed the low/high pattern too. He described the development as a “chink in the armor of the stock market.”

    Some believe the Ohama Titanic Syndrome could signal that equity benchmarks are setting up for a downdraft of 5% or more, especially since stocks have raced to a series of records that has raised questions about stock-market valuations.

  4. Atl GDP cut to 1.3 growth.On what historical basis,and with what reasoning,would the Fed raise rates this close to a recessionary number?Has this ever been seen before?Mr C?Fed raising rates with a GDP in this range?

    • bullish either way, No. No rate cut means valuations can be higher. Risk on. Raise rates. everyone says fed must know something. Really hard to be a bear. trust me I know. seems that everything can be spun bullish until its not. need market to tell you trouble is ahead. to me that 2363-2358-2352-2336-2320.
      break 2336 means trouble ahead

    • tony caldaro says:

      Q1 usually is, or should be, the weakest quarter

  5. ufa123 says:

    For all you day traders out there.
    I can across an interesting bit of research from the Man group (I have not verified it). If over the last 20 years you had gone long the S&P at the open and sold at midday you would be up 1%; if however you had bought at midday and sold at the close you would have made 220%.
    Food for thought.

  6. Jack Sparrow says:

    did we see a running triangle to down side this morning


  7. I’d say we can eliminate the short term bullish projection(1250),leaving only 1175 for a price objective.You can follow the rest.

  8. vivelaamo says:

    Is volume very low?

  9. phil1247 says:

    ok folks

    too many posts already …………see you tomorrow

  10. gary61b says:

    I have to stop taking breaks and concentrate on my charts.. right at two power lines crossing and at support 2366.25 GRRRRR. a high probability entry for a long.
    https://gyazo.com/dc70ca299b743d47270d396650c4b5f6

  11. purplember says:

    is it odd i trust Wikileaks more than my Gov’t ?

    • H D says:

      Alot of dudes that watch FOX news 24/7 think exactly like that. Just move to Russia and be happy.

      • purplember says:

        HD you trust our gov’t ? CIA/FBI says they do NOT wiretap individuals. Wikileaks exposing them that they do. I believe wikileaks. You take CIA/FBI at their word. GL with that.

        • H D says:

          TBH the gov’t actually has very little influence/ impact in my life. Sounds like they have u by the Xalls.

          • purplember says:

            HD try looking at things in big picture beyond “YOU”. they can influence politicians, businesses with recordings & leaking it. control cars while driving etc… it’s about FREEDOM not HD life, which is a very shallow view unless one wants to be part of that corrupt pool.

  12. micky says:

    mid 80 will be perfect thank you bulls, maybe today? I guess that’s asking a bit too much maybe.

  13. As I said,it’s all very simple.
    a)GDX broke the 10 and 20d sma-bearish
    b)13 crossed under the 34-bearish
    c) GDX embedded-bearish
    Needed to see a gap up this week,but no cigar.The icing will be if gold gives up 1215.
    Now a reverse of a.b.c needed to be a bull again.Good luck all.

    • phil1247 says:

      learned

      .618 retrace was violated at 21.30 this am on GDX
      daily extension short target is 21.18 ..
      print of 21.22 this morning is …close enough for me

      that is a profit taking signal for shorts
      …i am out of all DUST

      • MY timeline has been going on for a few days,since the 20d broke.Been defensIve since then.Nothing bullish for my investing at this point,unless c,b, and a occur.Thanks though.

  14. phil1247 says:

    gold collapse on track

    1216 target hit …. now bouncing up

  15. llerias7 says:

    Tony, nano waves do not suppose to extend for days, do they? Maybe we are already in micro 4 (nano v failure?)!

  16. gary61b says:

    Will the ES shows a nice B wave before heading south again or will it be one convoluted leg down? up to 84-88 for a B would work for me…. then I would be snooping for a 2356 long.

    • blackjak100 says:

      No one seems to factor in the interest rate factor except warren buffet who recently said the market is not expensive if interest rates remain near 0 for the next 10 years. I’m not suggesting the market is cheap here, but this ZIRP for an extended period has never happened before. There is no blueprint. My only point is as long as rates remain low, economic activity will remain steady barring a black swan event. Rates may not matter until they reach 2% at which time the fed will probably lower them again.

  17. vivelaamo says:

    If on the next move up we fail to make a new high I will close longs and take a break. The market needs one too.

  18. vivelaamo says:

    For those in to IRA you’ll see strong chance of a bounce at 18 dma

  19. CB says:


    chart from ew-forecast.com

  20. fotis2 says:

    So Trump is president, the Market likes him and rallied hard since the election now comes the trillion dollar question is he going to start implementing the proposed economic reforms he promised or carry on with the who said what, when and where game he seems to be currently engaged in, time will tell and certainly the Market will let us know….lets see.

    • H D says:

      I was at the barber shop and barber said exact same thing. It’s like the market hadn’t been rallying for 7 years already. Public is very on to this rally now. I reminded the dude when SPX rallied 20% relentlessly after the 2012 election and he had no clue. Just an observation.

  21. “The Emini never traded below last year’s close. Hence, it has been up all year. Because this is unusual, there is a 70% chance that the Emini will trade back below the December close at some point this year. Furthermore, there is a 60% chance that it will achieve the goal within the next couple of months.”
    A theory by an analyst on Investors.com.Quite a theory at that,but it sounded interesting,thought I’d pass it along.G’nite all.

  22. torehund says:

    ..its an ongoing fight, a phony and globally engineered economy, low rates and large government.
    As we discussed today the low rate environment may come to an end, a relief if it happens.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Nice remastered copy of Willie…shorter and more touching…
      When I was immersed in classical music, I used to love the work of Hans Zimmer – a movie soundtrack composer….well, here is my soundtrack of today….needed soothing and thoughtful…x

      • CampFreddie says:

        Thanks Fiona – Wow ,You have such an eclectic taste in music, I’m guessing you are a musician/singer perhaps.

        • fionamargaret says:

          I always like when you leave me a message Fred.
          The blog reminds me of “the scientists” which is probably why I feel at home, even if I know I am a stranger in a strange land…..x

      • 123 abc says:

        Hans Zimmer is wonderful…

        • fionamargaret says:

          Nice 123…
          When you examine one of Zimmer’s soundtracks… the way he intersperses his own compositions with recognized classical and folk/pop to extract the rightful emotion of the listener is truly a gift…like a Bayeux Tapestry set out before you…..x

  23. Bud Fox says:

    Short Sale on LUV with stop loss at $60….

  24. NYSE McClellan Oscillator closed down to -42. If we close below -50, that would be a confirmation of a breadth thrust lower. Meaning Momentum to the upside is over, at best neutral. This is also after WEEKS of Negative Divergencies.

  25. stormchaser80llc says:

    Some odd things going on here. SPX daily had only 1 negative divergence at its recent All Time High, so its bullish. SPX hourly had no negative divergences at the ATH, but it pulled back regardless. My LONG signal is a ‘NO’ for the 6th day in a row, signaling a neutral position is best right now. And today was the 2nd day that my other trusty indicator (not shown) was bearish.

    Still long 401k and May SPY calls. Even if this is not ‘the top’, a decent pullback cannot be ruled out. Today I searched for a place to sell my SPY calls, but instead the market was basing a low which I believe is now in place given all the positive divergences on the SPX hourly chart. If we do get a bounce, I will likely sell all my long positions. If the bounce is significant, I may elect to buy some shorts.

    Much much more at my site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com/) which is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.


  26. Here’s one optimists view of gold…totally opposite of trader moe.

    • Saw this same exact count from a different analyst.That’s two EW votes for a rally…lets see how gold votes on it.Also one of the analysts says once GDX gets out of its embedded reading,it will get bought in a decent amount.Sounds plausible.

      • fotis2 says:

        “When they laugh at your idea,” said the esteemed investor. “That’s usually a good place to start,”

  27. kvilia says:

    Miners are clearly underperforming metals – looking for clues.

  28. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $DJIA at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  29. Tarun Varma says:

    Tony – Thanks for the continuous & expert guidance through the market movements. I didn’t see this in the previous posts (including last weekend post; but could’ve just missed it), if Nano iv does work out as expected (i.e. somewhere in low 2360’s in the next day or two) what would be the target range/pivot level for conclusion of minute iii?

    • 123 abc says:

      Maybe Nano-iv ended at today’s low? If not, then at 2365 it would close the gap from Mar 1st. At which point, a Nano-v rise to the 2411 pivot would equal Nano-i to perhaps end Micro-3 wave. Next would be a Micro-4 pullback, and then Micro-5 high to end Minute-iii wave. Minute-iii would need to at least hit 2427 in order to equal Minute-i wave.

  30. Bud Fox says:

    What on earth is going on in DC ??? Crooks in DC, what else is new….

    • tommyboys says:

      Yep wish they’d stop the childish partisan bickering and start doing what they’re PAID to do…get things DONE! Those with power do NOT wanna relinquish it. Totally not why they’re there. They are suppose to be servants – not career focused.

      • Bud Fox says:

        Actually, I was a career servant myself. Yes, 20 + years with the FAA.
        And, yes. The retirement has been – great. Check, every month…..

    • Oh Bud not much other than Judicial Watch suing the CIA, Departments of Justice and Treasury for their role in leaking highly classified material as part of an effort to undermine the credibility of former Trump administration National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, according to the announcement. Given recent events, a boring day. Not.

    • Bud Fox says:

      Interesting signals on the SP500 cash. Now have a more clear top signal.
      Also, confirmed bear pattern by the OBV signals, as well. My wave call is that
      the recent high 3/1 is a W3 high. But, my EW calls are merely estimates.
      My SDS position is is still active.

  31. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/ZZZE5R?image

    /ES

    bearish below 2381

    target 2361

    the extension short entry traded perfectly at 2378 ( oval)

  32. llerias7 says:

    “Still expecting a top around SPX 3000+ between the years 2018 and 2020.” I Think this chart gives you support:

  33. gary61b says:

    Thanks Tony, pos on the end of iv, like the neg. on the end of iii. disrespectful market, lol.

  34. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    SPX was unable to close the up-gap nor the down-gap, closed below short-term resistance but with a potential tiny-degree five-up from today’s low. See charts.
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2017/03/market-timing-update-3617.html

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