Friday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then bounce, DOW +3

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the SPX opened 2 points below yesterday’s 2382 close. In the opening minutes the SPX ticked up to unchanged, and then headed lower again. At 10am ISM services was reported higher: 57.6 v 56.5. By 10:30 the SPX had hit 2375, and then tried to rally. At 12:30 FED vice chair Fischer’s speech was released: Then at 1pm Yellen: The market worked its way back into positive territory, hitting SPX 2384 by 3:30, then closed at 2383.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.15%. Bonds slid 5 ticks, Crude rose 60 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 60.2% v 60.5%, and the Q1 GDP estimate was lowered this week to 1.8% v 2.4%.

The market opened slightly lower today, ticked up to unchanged, and then hit SPX 2375. The market has now pulled back 26 points from Wednesday’s SPX 2401 all-time high. As noted yesterday, this represents the largest pullback since the Nano wave ii pullback at the end of January. Today’s activity also quantified this pullback as either Nano wave iv, or the 10th wave of Nano iii. Should the market continue to decline into the low SPX 2360’s, then it will be considered Nano wave iv. After that low, or sooner, the market should resume the uptrend. Short term support is at SPX 2353 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum ended the week above neutral. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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25 Responses to Friday update

  1. mtu MTU says:

    MTU weekly commentary – Monthly Outlook Update (3/3/17)
    Stocks, Bonds, USD, Gold – key intermediate term scenarios to watch

  2. James Garner says:

    Thank you Tony for the continued sharing of your most excellent work.

  3. 123 abc says:

    Not sure if I follow your thoughts exactly, does the below chart reflect your ideas? If so, I suppose could be a possible variation, but the overall picture remains the same…

    • 123 abc says:

      @torehund: In response to query below.

      • torehund says:

        Let me attempt to explain more thorougly. Where you have put pico I , I would consider to put nano 5 first wave, and where you put pico 3 I would put nano 5 second Wave. thereafter I would put pico one where you have micro 3, and pico 2 where you have micro 4, and then last put pico 5 where you have minute lll.

        • 123 abc says:

          Apologies, still not following!

          “Where you have put pico I , I would consider to put nano 5 first wave”
          —Where would you put Nano-iii wave?

          “thereafter I would put pico one where you have micro 3, and pico 2 where you have micro 4, and then last put pico 5 where you have minute lll.”
          —Aren’t you are missing Pico-3 wave in this sequence?

          Perhaps you can share a chart image of your thoughts? Feel free to scribble over the ones I’ve posted.

  4. fionamargaret says:
    Thanks Colin Twiggs
    Thanks Tom McClellan….his website, as there are numerous ideas to access

    Thanks Tony…..and everyone. xx

  5. any bears left in the house?

  6. Thanks TC. Happy Friday to everyone.

    Someone has mentioned FTSE a few times lately.Saw this on Stockcharts,from Tom Bowley.He considers this tremendously bullish.No charge.

  8. SPX:Gap fill to 2365 minimum?GDX:+div but buried yet.Hopefully the dollar looked at today as THE rate increase announcement and PMs do as well.Goldfingers crossed.They’re crossed because,if GDX can show this last weeks drop can be interpreted as a correction,big money can be made yet potentially-which is always fun.Good weekend all.

    • mjtplayer says:

      GDX oversold bounce in progress, bit the trend is down

      • blackjak100 says:

        I reshorted @ 22.35. This is the third time I reshorted in 5 days. the charts are extremely bearish and I don’t see a bounce much higher. It’s possible it goes sideways next week before heading lower.

  9. locanbbs says:

    Thanks, Tony, we’re getting there!

  10. Bud Fox says:

    Thanks Tony, have a warm weekend…

  11. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  12. lots of ways to count I suppose.
    I’m looking at it as 2352 to 2401 was 49 points a wave 3 today ended a 50 percent retrace to 2375. Wave 4 one more up of max 44 points to 2419 max to end minor 3. Would expect a pull back to 2260-2300 area. Then up to 2500 to end Int 3.

  13. lunker1 says:

    Thanks Tony have a great weekend

  14. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al for the superb OEW daily updates this week, very appreciated detail.

    • torehund says:

      where you have designated the pico wave sequence, could that just be a double wave 5 of the nano with its extension. Then the sequence thereafter is the pico sequence ending into retracement as of today ? Impressive work 123.

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