SHORT TERM: lower open then bounce, DOW +3
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the SPX opened 2 points below yesterday’s 2382 close. In the opening minutes the SPX ticked up to unchanged, and then headed lower again. At 10am ISM services was reported higher: 57.6 v 56.5. By 10:30 the SPX had hit 2375, and then tried to rally. At 12:30 FED vice chair Fischer’s speech was released: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20170303a.htm. Then at 1pm Yellen: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20170303a.htm. The market worked its way back into positive territory, hitting SPX 2384 by 3:30, then closed at 2383.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.15%. Bonds slid 5 ticks, Crude rose 60 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 60.2% v 60.5%, and the Q1 GDP estimate was lowered this week to 1.8% v 2.4%.
The market opened slightly lower today, ticked up to unchanged, and then hit SPX 2375. The market has now pulled back 26 points from Wednesday’s SPX 2401 all-time high. As noted yesterday, this represents the largest pullback since the Nano wave ii pullback at the end of January. Today’s activity also quantified this pullback as either Nano wave iv, or the 10th wave of Nano iii. Should the market continue to decline into the low SPX 2360’s, then it will be considered Nano wave iv. After that low, or sooner, the market should resume the uptrend. Short term support is at SPX 2353 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum ended the week above neutral. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend