Thursday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then pullback, DOW -114

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened lower and finished mixed. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported lower: 223K v 244K – the lowest level since March, 1973. The 4-week moving average also hit its lowest level since 1973. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2396 record close, then continued down to 2384 by 11:30. After a bounce to SPX 2389 by 2:30 the market hit 2380 by 3:30. Then a slight bounce ended the day at SPX 2382.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.60%. Bonds slid 7 ticks, Crude fell $1.15, Gold dropped $15, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: ISM services at 10am, then a speech from vice chair Fischer at 12:30, and a speech from FED chair Yellen at 1pm. FED speak.

The market opened lower today then dropped to 21 points from yesterday’s SPX 2401 record high. This decline represents the largest pullback since the 34-point decline at the end of January. Which so happens to be Nano wave ii. It is possible the 9 waves up from the SPX 2267 Nano ii low completed at SPX 2401, and Nano iv is currently underway. If not, it may just be wave 10 in a 13-wave Nano iii. Nothing technically conclusive either way yet. Short term support drops to SPX 2353 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 pivot and SPX 2401. Short term momentum declined from yesterday’s extreme overbought condition to oversold today. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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107 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    I am thinking, this weekends – OEW commentary – will be especially important….
    OBV, has been in Bullish trend, since 2009. Very impressive, but sense the end
    will arrive soon, enough….

    • tommyboys says:

      If you’ve been reading Tony’s updates he’s LT bullish. OEW puts us in a longer term bull market.

  2. Bud Fox says:

    Mar 2017…I shutter to think, of what the SP500 top will look like going forward.
    Consider. From where, the SP have come from. A very long run higher, indeed.
    Maybe. Oew, will comment on SP500 future trend, this weekemd.

  3. wildmarkets says:

    Phil- Why don’t you open your day trading chat room? Your number of comments make this blog too noisy.
    Even Page has commented on your post. Tony also made a comment last week.
    I am not against anyone making money but you are just getting out of hands here on this blog where swing ideas are being shared and in particular wave counts!

    • cyanus66 says:

      Phil’s commentary is interesting, I enjoy his presence here, however I’m not sure whether most people are aware that his time-frames are quite short and carry all the caveats of day-trading.
      In fact, ironically, I most appreciate it when once in a while he offers longer term opinions.
      (Sorry Phil for commenting on you, I’m sure you’re reading this – cheers!!)

      • wildmarkets says:

        You think people over here don’t day trade? Also there few good day trading website out there if people like you are interested in. One from Dan Zanger and there are quite a few. I am a member of one of those websites. I do lot of day trading as well but if everyone starts to post stuff over here, imagine how this blog will become?
        Anyway, this is Tony’s website. Let him decide what he wants to do.

    • I don’t particularly take pleasure in subjective discussions, however, I for one do not see the need to enforce regulation on a problem that is not present. In particular, the hypothetical scenario of what may come if enough traders begin commenting their day trades. Can it become an issue? Possibly. Is it an issue as of right now? I don’t believe so in comparison to the number of comments I’ve seen in years past reaching over 200 posts during major events. Fortunately, the comment thread supports paging now to limit the amount of scrolling necessary after a certain threshold. Phil has already acknowledged he is aware of Tony’s concern and it is apparent that his posts are contained within his sub-posts which I find to be a reasonable solution to the concern. When it becomes an issue, I am sure Tony will address it and continue to maintain this unique invaluable forum of discussion, thoughts, and insight as he has successfully done so in the past.

      Everyone has their own trading style and I personally value what Phil shares as I take part in both short-term day trading and long-term swing trading for different asset classes. I believe others here share the same sentiment in that Phil contributes a lot of value to this forum in his own area of expertise that extends the amount of diversity this site has to offer.

      In general going forward, if there is any cause for concern about the behavior observed in the comments by a particular individual, I believe it to be best handled in a civil, respectful manner by emailing Tony directly without the need to publicly put anyone on the spot and open up a debate thread.

      I trust that Tony and Phil are both reasonable, rationale people and so likewise I will leave it up to them.

      Enjoy the weekend, all. Next week will be interesting to see unfold :]


  4. torehund says:

    Nobody loves this rally, not even the bots. Hallmark of a p III. But love and progress has never gone hand in hand. Wishing you all a good weekend, and a special thanks to our mentor and guide Tony C.

  5. tommyboys says:

    VIX been in a steady decline since Tuesday close…

  6. phil1247 says:


    did gold zoom up??

    not because some silly old lady was talking

    the extension short missed by 40 cents so i thought it was a front run

    nope ….. they had to send it back to hit it to the tick and the blast it out of there

    since we did not go thru target gold bears may get a face ripping squeeze now

  7. lunker1 says:

    phil your 2375 is holding on

  8. vivelaamo says:

    Did someone turn the bots off? The market is dead

  9. torehund says:

    TBT: From top 14 dec 2016, I note a floating abc down. Is a wave 3 ahead ?

  10. NEWBIE says:

    Nobody is talking about the elephant in the room- THE DEBT CEILING .

  11. Phil , your 2375 level is holding thus far, see if we can rally.

  12. EL MATADOR says:

    How about that guys, Team Fed Yellen going to raise rates again this March. Team Fed Yellen has NO CHOICE anymore. March raise is Yellow Light, July raise I Orange Light, Nov raise is Red Light.

  13. The 13 crossed below the 34 …which is as bearish as you can get–if it stays that way.Last June,,when that occurred,it was an exact buy point and was followed by a gap up to save the trend.That must happen exactly that way again and Yellen’s speech is the only thing I see –save the March 15th Fed meeting,but that would be too late.Not much else to say.Just watch.

    • Meant to mention,Ira Epstein noted a 1% chance of GDX staying under the BB for a 5th day.It’s all set up for Yellen to spring an 8% up day(lol).Stranger things have happened.

  14. Can’t even think about buying GdX until stochastics dig out from being embedded.See if Yellen brings a shovel to do that or pile more on.Later.

  15. scottycj1 says:

    Today is a CIT….Low….maybe already seen in the overnight Futures….next cit 3-9

  16. futuresman says:

    My last pivot I mentioned was 2374 which we broke wed the 1st we went all the way up to 2401 that day, we are now heading back down we touched 2374 twice this morning on the hourly so again my resistance becomes support like my last pivot point 2338 did…..when the markets open this morning I’m thinking we test it again….My next pivot is 2409 and then 2445 which I think we will see the next decline….Happy trading everyone !!

  17. Tony, is this the correct count for XLF? Is this out of sync with the SPX…just wondering what your thoughts are on this…since financials are such a large part of the index percentage wise. Thanks Tony. Mike.;

  18. SPYtrader says:

    Wonder if the SPX will ever get back to the daily ranges of years gone by. I was looking at the ranges of March and April from 15 years ago and it was common for 1% – 1-1/2% moves. Now we get 1/2% ranges.

  19. Richard Glackin says:

    Of course, “I could be wrong”, however, last night I took out VXX puts (short term only). This morning as expected all three major indices bounced off their respective 0.618 retraces. $RUT small caps is (as usual) dancing to the beat of it’s own drummer – but it too bounced.

    I continue to be amazed at the absence of comments on silver here on this site. Lots of interest in GDX and GLD but for those of you who share my opinion that metals are toast…I’m expecting the drop in silver to make GDX and GLD look like a party. Took out puts on SLV last night as well and will add substantially with the wave 2 bounce.

    Of particular note: Bouraq I’d like to say thank you as your charts have made me realize that I should be paying a lot more attention to those resistance / support trend lines. They really are quite telling…resistance trends became support on the three major indices.
    Good luck to all.

  20. I hope Yellen comes out and says something like:
    “Coo-d afternoon ladies and gentleman.Before I start,coo-d I have a glass of water?Thank coo.It’s coo-d to be here to talk about Fed Funds Rates.But I’ve said enough already.Coo-d bye everyone.”
    Interesting day,Friday,to say the least.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …thanks Learned for helping me with the P&F charts….what happened to the crows, cat and rat (the animals)…..sing…

      • You’re welcome.
        Miners are hanging by a thread.
        But they ain’t dead.
        He said,
        to a screen that’s red.
        But if Yellen
        says the right thing
        It could go green
        if you know what I mean.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Nicely done L…I knew there was poetry in you….
          I received good charts from Stockcharts…..for a day…
          Hope LABU worked for a few folks….
          Remember Pring said 5 days of bad for gold, then the heavens will open….well, kind of..

    • Page says:

      learn, Coo-d comment and Yellen is always dovish so let’s see if she is nano dovish or ….

  21. stormchaser80llc says:

    Still long 401k and May SPY calls.

    My LONG signal remains a ‘NO’ for the 4th day in a row, signaling a neutral position is best right now. This is determined by how my proprietary Technicals Model has been losing steam of late. SPX Hourly at today’s low only had a negative divergence for ADX -DI so a lower low is likely before the uptrend likely continues. Another key market direction signal I look at remains bullish.. .

    Much much more at my site ( which is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  22. Give me 2370 I’m a buyer for 1 more high and I will short 2407 for a 10 percent ride down

  23. Thanks Tony. Interestingly, but not surprising, the low in the cash market was within pennies of yesterday’s open making it a big line in the sand along with 2385. With respect to the latter, its very close to the level probably most tested today: 2386.25. Next trading lows likely to be 73/74 followed by 66 depending upon what this thing wants to do.

  24. mjtplayer says:

    Gold – broken diagonal pattern, GLD should be headed to the $113 area ($1,190 area) is short order

    GDX looks awful, leading the yellow metal lower and almost waterfall selling over the past week. Minor support here around the $22 level, could get a bounce back to the mid $23’s, but that would just be a bounce and potential right-shoulder of a H&S pattern. If this plays out, downside target would be the mid $18’s – which curiously was the also the Dec lows. If no bounce, $20 is next support.

  25. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is ES at

  26. phil1247 says:


    Tony ….

    ..this is for the ” magician”

    bullish above 2375

    target………………wait for it …………………. 2411

  27. vivelaamo says:

    Out of interest what happened to the stock market when Nixon was impeached?

    • Back then,it sold off like it was supposed to.Why do you ask?

      • vivelaamo says:

        Had another email from our friend. This Russia scandal doesn’t seem to be going away.

        • tommyboys says:

          Russia nothing but a huge distraction. There is nothing there. Like Russia had something to do with the midwest states voting? Why was nothing said when Russia was given all our Uranium?

        • fionamargaret says:

          Well Sessions has recused himself which is a plus, so the investigation can go on unhindered.
          Even if Sessions didn’t. tell the truth under oath does not automatically mean perjury…..
          It has to be substantive enough to alter the course of justice….

          • I think he has wiggle room, as does constitutional scholar Jonathan Turley, as the question asked by Franken specifically had to do with campaign communications. As to Trump, former CIA director John Brennan who is no friend of Trump, says there is nothing there. But this means little to Pelosi and Schumer who are pressing to cast a pall of doubt over the Trump administration; the same people who gave Lynch a pass on meeting with Bill Clinton on the tarmac. Its an evil witch hunt.

          • I don’t understand why the Republican elected officials and Party spokespeople and Trump surrogates don’t pound the airwaves with the following point. Franken asked Sessions a question on meetings with any Russian officials in his capacity as a Trump surrogate. Senators Leahy and Franken should have asked the following follow-up question, ” Senator Sessions, as a Trump surrogate or in your capacity as a member of the Foreign Relations committee, did you ever meet with a Russian official, ie Ambassador in 2016?”

            My .02 is both Senators knew the answer (to that question) but were more interested in maintaining the issue. I will stop here, don’t want get political on Tony’s site but this debate does have an impact on our financial markets. Many apologies to you Tony, if you think I stepped over the line.

            • tommyboys says:

              This is because conservatives chronically back away from confrontation. The left fights tooth and nail and puts narratives forth often with zero basis in fact. The right just sits there and takes it. Narrative could easily be changed to the left’s gift of Uranium to Russia or the $1.4B cash given to Iran or the Obama freeing tens of thousands of terrorist prisinors or Slick Willie’s meeting with Lynch on the jet or Hilary receiving debate questions etc…but the right doesn’t see any of this as productive – which it’s not.

        • stcoleridge says:

          “Our friend” as in the uber Clinton crony Gary L?

  28. purplember says:

    someone mentioned months ago on here that whenever the SP reaches the century mark, there has been a 20-30 pt pullback

  29. 123 abc says:

    Tony, do you just see 4 waves thus far for Nano-iii → Pico-5 as follows ?:
    wave-i: 2365 / wave-ii: 2360 / wave-iii: 2401 / wave-iv: 2380

    • 123 abc says:

      On closer inspection, Nano-iii → Pico-5 may be completed as the following five Femto waves?:
      wave-i: 2365 / wave-ii: 2360 / wave-iii: 2390 / wave-iv: 2387 / wave-v: 2400

      Therefore, speculating that Nano-iii has indeed completed, and that Nano-iv is currently in progress.

      • 123 abc says:

        P.S. assuming Nano-iv ends at 2369 (a 23.6% retrace of Nano-iii); then at the 2411 pivot range Nano-i equals Nano-v wave, thereat ending Micro-3 wave.

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