Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open starts pullback, DOW -25

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 the Q4 GDP second estimate was reported unchanged at 1.9%, and wholesale inventories were reported lower: -0.1% v 1.0%. Then at 9am Case – Shiller was reported unchanged at 5.6%. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2370 record close. It bounced a few point higher and then headed lower. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 57.4 v 50.3, and at 10am consumer confidence was reported higher: 114.8 v 111.8. Around 12:30 the SPX hit 2359. The market then rallied to SPX 2365 by 2pm, dipped to 2360 by 3:30, then bounced to close at 2364.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.50%. Bonds slipped 3 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold added $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: personal incomes/pending and PCE prices at 8:30; construction spending, ISM, and auto sales at 10am; then the FED’s beige book at 2pm.

The market opened lower today, pulled back 13 points from yesterday’s high, and then rebounded some into the close. At the low the market was short term oversold for only the second time this month. It is possible that the 4th wave of Micro 3 is currently underway. This would suggest a further decline into the SPX 2340’s, before rallying again to new highs. Short term support remains at SPX 2353 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2372 and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day just above oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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150 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. pooch77 says:

    TZA $16.75 coming soon ,back up the truck

  2. H D says:

    several ways to look at the rally. in 2014 the rally went 12.7% off the early low, 2015 nada, 2016 rallied 14% off the early low, 2017 is unique, did not have a low. I am using 11/4 as low and this rally is 13.2% so far. This rally is perhaps more like 2013 rally where SPX did Nov low and rallied 20%. Not sure what the occasion was back in 2013, probably some speech.

    • H D says:

      to get to the point… same bull market.

    • fotis2 says:

      Last year we had a talk i was saying i must be mad going long at this level 2150s you said still has 350 on the upside, still long tried couple on the way up and got scalded thankfully held on to the longer term longs yip what a ride!

    • fionamargaret says:

      UDOW has to reach 150 to be at the top of its pattern.

      • H D says:

        JMO, the markets move etf’s. Not etf’s move the market. Just an observation for SPX. I am not long and have not participated in the indexes that much this year.

      • lunker1 says:

        3X ETFs have decay and other expenses so it’s not chartworthy best to chart the underlying index

  3. micky says:

    touched first weekly target, lightening up a bit , will add again in case of a pb.

  4. phil1247 says:

    Tony

    sorry about all the posts …got carried away on this exciting day

    still i have no idea how you get to 2411 SPX

    my highest target is only up to 2408

  5. Trump must have secretly signed an EO that -divs will not matter from today forward.Only the algos were informed.Look at that mountainous div on Nasdaq.Impressive,but nothing….yet.And it’s first of the month.Still jaw dropping in its persistence and power.
    And Tomorrow is SNAP.

  6. phil1247 says:

    /es 2401 target hit !

  7. Jack Sparrow says:

    and where is ajay —i need a punching bag

  8. Jack Sparrow says:

    this is for Ahmm—look at what happened at 2260 and now at 2360 in SP..talk about same patterns…

  9. wonder what the feds beige book at noon does.
    need to break 2395 in order to go lower

  10. phil1247 says:

    sold half at /es 2396

    off margin

  11. Ajney says:

    Energy date later today and on the weekend. The weekend energy date has a history of reversals. So caution is advised henceforth in the equity indices.

  12. 2425 – 3SD from 100 week sma. 🤔

  13. captbara says:

    Feels like we’re in the heart of 3rd of 3rds. State of the Union kicked it off 🇺🇸

  14. lunker1 says:

    hey abc, per post last week those small retraces was another 2 (either one or two of them) and not a 4, and now we’re in another 3.

  15. allen1929 says:

    Armstrong pov Europe big problems money coming to USA

  16. If someone thinks this monster will stop to run, think twice. Only some sort of wedge that will be it

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      not saying to short her at all but the same sentiments were uttered before the last two bears. It is delusion to think this is not the euphoric phase and rationalize something to the contrary because their are skeptics out there. Their are always skeptics. Not everyone will be bullish for their to be a top. That’s nonsense to think that way. Personal income in real terms was negative. Inflation is higher. Who cares! Its not important. Stocks higher………..that’s euphoria. Trump has uttered a gagillion times he is going to do an infrastructure plan. I’m sorry but the post election move big plenty of financials and industrials up in massive fashion on expectations on that thought process and yet nothing has materialized yet. To continue to bid those sectors in massive fashion from here is euphoria. Its euphoria plain and simple. Where it ends who knows but its beyond silly at this point. I point to moves in the banks as how ridiculous this move is. So their are higher rates……..big deal. All of the money they make with higher rates they will lose on the other side because of what higher rates will do to the consumer. When their is little logic in a move and the move is enormous its euphoria. We are in the euphoria phase right now. Guess where that ends and you are a genius. It will stop and many will be caught by surprise. This is no different than the last two times. I am listening to conversations of every day joes talking about how easy it is to make money in stocks again when I am in the convenience store, or in the check out aisle of a Walmart or in the barber shop………………Its got into the silly phase again just like last time. When people say its different this time I know with certainty it isn’t.

      • All money coming on the rug this way are not gone away anytime soon. Be smart and see is not day trading stuff any more…Insider buying the next tax cut.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Guess what. It’s not different this time because it doesn’t remotely resemble a top.

        • tommyboys says:

          Actually it’s different BIGLY. Last time we were beginning a crisis period – which is still etched in everyone’s brain. We’re now embarking on an awakening – hugely different.

          • vivelaamo says:

            My point was continuing up is the norm, hence not different this time. A large correction here would be a different outcomes to the one expected considering the circumstances.

      • tommyboys says:

        We’ve finally gotten some bull market sentiment – which is required when forging new highs. Not euphoria just recognition that the world “may not” end tomorrow – still might, but maybe – just MAYBE – not immediately(?)

      • chrisk44342 says:

        Nearly all of what you say is accurate. Unfortunately none of that will think help you make money in trading.

      • Magic, when you will become bull will be near the top. Let us know..

      • jhjoyner says:

        Maybe you should write a book and get everything off your chest!!!!!!!!!!!

  17. CampFreddie says:

    …Newbie had been waiting a long time for a profit on his short, but then a call came in from his brokers margin clerk…

  18. Get ready to cue to the laugh track but,there’s quite the -div on daily SPX.It would have to go to 2400 to wipe that one out.Me thinks not this time.Good luck all.See you much later.

  19. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony, great call.
    SPX ~ Next YR @ 2398 ~ OEW 2411

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/PAYnzspB/

  20. phil1247 says:

    maxed out on margin with UPRO .
    ..just raising stops as we go

    would buy more if i could

  21. fbqueen3 says:

    Tony could yesterday’s low be iv of iii and we’re now in v of iii, or too short of pullback? Thanks!

  22. Pffss…..The monster is only at 1 year optionable OTM

  23. vivelaamo says:

    Well done Tony. Called this very nicely. Next stop 2411!!

  24. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony, what pivots are above 2385? Thanks

  25. ES is on the way to 2395

  26. The Close today will be interesting.. I see ALL the gains evaporating this morning

  27. blackjak100 says:

    Odds of march rate hike surge to 80%. Looks like rates will finally reach at least 1% this month.

  28. phil1247 says:

    good luck all

    see you tomorrow

  29. vivelaamo says:

    The stock market loves trump. Just keep buying th dip until proven otherwise.

  30. phil1247 says:

    selling some UPRO here unless we blast thru 2381 target

    • tommyboys says:

      You can count on it. DAX up 1.5% and climbing. SP up just half that…so far.

      • tommyboys says:

        DAX up almost 2% now just as we’ve gotten close to that 1.5%. RUT has tested the breakout topsline now for a couple weeks. Should be good to go. Targets 1550-1600. A/D (the REAL market) making new highs again. Looks strong.

  31. micky says:

    amazing these 3rd waves, no wonder they are called money waves.

  32. phil1247 says:

    DING DANG DONG

    / ES targets of 2375 and 2377 both HIT!

  33. vivelaamo says:

    Hmmm. Interesting spike last night which god sold in to. Could we have a short term top with a shooting star.

  34. Jack Sparrow says:

    did we just complete ED in ES

  35. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/eFOdhf?image

    GOLD

    the bounce from 1248.20 ext long has failed
    there should soon be no doubt whether or not its a true wedge

    if the lower line is violated there should be a violent collapse

    DOLLAR triangle should breakout to upside for correlation……yes i did say that

    dollar should surge to 106 108

    • During Trump’s speech,this came out.A dollar selloff of a third of a point ensued,but was bought:
      “St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Tuesday sounded cool to the idea of a March rate hike.

      Given his forecast of 2% annual growth rate this year and 2% inflation, “I wouldn’t see any reason to be especially aggressive about interest-rate hikes in this environment,” Bullard told reporters after a speech at George Washington University.

      Bullard’s remarks came after New York Fed President William Dudley said the case for a rate hike had become more compelling. His comments caused the market’s odds of a rate hike in March to spike up to 70%.”
      Market will ignore that.
      Also,Oil inventories up again,shouldn’t mean anything either.
      I saw an interesting article about what saved Britain from falling into
      deflation this last year–oil prices rising.That probably applies to a lot of countries.And that’s one beneficial reason why oil prices have been getting propped up by CBs since last year.The others were saving the oil companies themselves and the equity market in general.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Martin Pring has some interesting remarks on gold (see below)…see what you think..

        • I can’t access it.Have a summary?

        • fionamargaret says:

          Pring..
          The gold price is confined within a large trading range bounded by1360 on the upside and 1060 on the downside.
          The recent short-term rally is intact, but showing signs of tiredness.Gold shares are bearing the brunt of the vulnerability.
          We are more likely to see a test of the trading range lows prior to an attempt at the highs.
          If precious metals firm up, silver is likely to outperform gold.
          We are going to have to wait for more evidence…..

          Nothing really that you haven’t covered in greater detail…an interesting thing to me was his suggestion that once gold has started this behaviour pattern, then we have 5 more days of negativity….

          • Look at last June on Mr C’s GDX chart (#14).IF this is going to remotely stay bullish,something like that must repeat.Otherwise moving averages will cross and become bearish.It’s going to be a close call.Thanks for the recap.

            • fionamargaret says:

              Thanks Learned….he actually sounded much more bullish than I made it sound….
              Remember I have gold/silver/treasury mix, which I think is managed…

    • chrisk44342 says:

      My feeling on gold is the selling is purely technical. We hit the 200 DMA almost to the tick

  36. stormchaser80llc says:

    Still long 401k and May SPY calls.

    My LONG signal remains a ‘NO’ for the second day in a row, signaling a neutral position is best right now. This is determined by how my proprietary Technicals Model has been losing steam of late. SPX Hourly shows fairly strong negative divergences with Monday’s All Time High. Most breadth indicators are starting to falter.

    That said, the small caps had nice gains of their stocks above their 20 dma today, small caps are key to catching trends. Another key market direction signal I look at remains bullish. So right now I am ready to sell out of my longs mentally, but will continue to monitor the market before pulling the trigger.

    My site (http://navigatethemarketstorm.com/) is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  37. No real specifics.Very generic and quite bland for Trump.See you all Wednesday.

  38. blackjak100 says:

    New ATH in ES already before speech

  39. torehund says:

    Learning about oneself through arrow and a bow. Strolling in the forest for a couple of hours, shooting now and then, and you attain that mind-less bliss, expand your thorax and re-energizes your heart. Possibly erases any heart ache from trading too 🙂

  40. Thanks Tony. Trump’s speech is certain to be interesting but will do nothing to do to resolve the gridlock on repeal and replace, proposed increases in defense spending and proposals to slash state department spending. Its as if old school republicans are as interested as democrats in seeing Trump fail. What others are saying about the market: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/chart-of-the-day/spx-elliottwave-view-ending-wave-3-soon/


  41. Borrowed this chart from eagleseagle at Goldtadise to point out the high volume selloffs were buying opportunities in the past.This time too?

  42. phil1247 says:

    Fotis

    didnt post it today
    but i used the middle number to predict SPX close

    this was off by 10c .today

    ..that was .better than going for the home run like the other day
    when i missed it by 26 cents 🙂

  43. pooch77 says:

    Anybody have an explanation for iwm fall off the cliff today? equal to 300 dow points

  44. blackjak100 says:

    A potential 4th wave expanded flat would target 2349-2350. Let’s see what trump’s speech does to the futures tonight if anything.

  45. captbara says:

    Bit of a carry trade fake out today with the dollar and yen being volatile, and now shooting back up bigly after hours. Let’s see if it holds overnight.

  46. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al, great OEW update.

    There is a potential for Minute-iii to be less than Minute-i wave, assuming…
    — Micro-4 is currently in progress and ends at 2344, a 23.6% retracement.
    — Micro-5 ends at the 2385 or 2411 pivot range; needs to extend beyond 2421 where Minute-i equals Minute-iii wave.


  47. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    Month-end. A complete five-up in February? See charts.
    http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2017/02/market-timing-update-22817.html

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