SHORT TERM: lower open starts pullback, DOW -25
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 the Q4 GDP second estimate was reported unchanged at 1.9%, and wholesale inventories were reported lower: -0.1% v 1.0%. Then at 9am Case – Shiller was reported unchanged at 5.6%. The market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2370 record close. It bounced a few point higher and then headed lower. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 57.4 v 50.3, and at 10am consumer confidence was reported higher: 114.8 v 111.8. Around 12:30 the SPX hit 2359. The market then rallied to SPX 2365 by 2pm, dipped to 2360 by 3:30, then bounced to close at 2364.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.50%. Bonds slipped 3 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold added $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: personal incomes/pending and PCE prices at 8:30; construction spending, ISM, and auto sales at 10am; then the FED’s beige book at 2pm.
The market opened lower today, pulled back 13 points from yesterday’s high, and then rebounded some into the close. At the low the market was short term oversold for only the second time this month. It is possible that the 4th wave of Micro 3 is currently underway. This would suggest a further decline into the SPX 2340’s, before rallying again to new highs. Short term support remains at SPX 2353 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2372 and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day just above oversold. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend