Monday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then new highs, DOW +16

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 durable goods were reported higher: 1.8% v -0.4%. The market opened two points below Friday’s SPX 2367 close, dipped to 2362, and then started to rise. Heading into the last hour, with only a 4 point pullback along the way, the SPX hit 2372. Then dipped to SPX 2370 to end the session.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds lost 15 ticks, Crude rose 5 cents, Gold slid $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP (est. 2.0%) and wholesale inventories at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then consumer confidence at 10am.

The market opened slightly lower today, pulled back 5 points from Friday’s SPX 2367 close, then started to eke out new all-time highs. Meanwhile the DOW recorded its 12th consecutive record close, one shy of its all-time 120-year record of 13 in January 1987. After the lower open the market rallied to a new high at SPX 2369, pulled back 4 points, then hit 2372 in the last hour of trading. The Micro 3 rally from SPX 2257 continues. Short term support is at SPX 2353 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day with another negative divergence, but no weakness yet. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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71 Responses to Monday update

  1. i think macro 3 ended at 2371 macro 4 finishes tomorrow at 2332 then marco 5 up to 2381 to end minute 3

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Phil do you trade the Russell?

  3. kingfrogcash says:

    Not feeling good Lewis. losing steam into the close. Gold and VIX heading back up.
    Also buying a little bio tech short etf. He isn’t going to say nice things about the cost of health.

  4. Looks like a +div on 30 min GDX.New low for the move had a 13 RSI compared to 4 yesterday.Still think the only way this bails out is Trumps speech tonight.Dollar must sell,Bonds rally.Good luck all.

  5. lunker1 says:

    Curious what the weekly RSI 5 looked like 2003 to 2007 and 1995 to 2000

  6. hooloo1957 says:

    Hi, can anybody get behind shorting Phillip Morris or Boeing?

    • fionamargaret says:

      Well the European managers are super bullish on the US market….not to so much on their own…they think there is another leg up….so maybe MCG will get his short…

  7. phil1247 says:


    holding extension longs

    clock is ticking on SPX.
    …not interested in stock longs any more

    see you all tomorrow !

  8. phil1247 says:

    bot small long GLD 119.44

    dollar triangle resolves soon
    ..then we will see about gold

  9. phil1247 says:


    test of 2363 PIVOT today?

  10. mjtplayer says:

    Martin Armstrong says yesterday was the turn in gold and a close below $1,255/oz today (end of the month) is bearish. The gross under-performance in the miners confirms this should occur, the miners are totally breaking down and leading the gold market – as they usually do.

  11. scottycj1 says:

    The Global Dow index has broken out…..we have a bull market on a world wide basis….But there is a tradable high coming in March.

    • torehund says:

      Yupp Scotty, and if I am not far off Biotech is the one sector that will power the P-III, the one business that the Chinese would like to enter in earnest.

  12. We’re going to find out what’s what with GDX and gold this week.Continued selling of GdX would give the cross under and make investors think about 18.58 on the weekly.A break of that gives no hope–lower low.It looks like it’s all Trumps speech and how its interpreted.Ira says GDX is a “no buy” for the forseeable future.It’s amazing how the bullish daily pattern blew up.But it gave warning with the break of the 10 and 20d MAs.
    Now can it recoup?Or was this the indication that gold is going to quickly plummet as well.The top black crow held.Looks like the 40% gain off the weekly +div on GDX was it,unless a miracle occurs.Maybe P&F was right.Gold up to 1360,but GDX to 7…lol.How that could happen is impossible to me.Good luck all.

  13. stormchaser80llc says:

    Still long 401k and May SPY calls.

    My LONG signal went to ‘NO’ today, signaling a neutral position is best right now. This is determined by how my proprietary Technicals Model has been losing steam of late. SPX Hourly shows fairly strong negative divergences with today’s All Time High.

    That said, breadth doesnt look bad at all and the number of stocks above their 20/50 dma rose again today. Another key market direction signal I look at remains bullish. So right now I am ready to sell out of my longs mentally, but will continue to monitor the market before pulling the trigger.

    My site ( is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  14. Bud Fox says:

    QQQ is at nose-bleed levels, since Marc 2000. That suggests, an air
    of caution, would be a wise consideration.

  15. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at

  16. lunker1 says:

    I’m lazy….What’s the percentage gain on the 12 record closes now compared to 1987?

  17. By Karen Brettell | NEW YORK
    The U.S. dollar was steady against a basket of currencies on Monday ahead of a busy week that will include a speech by U.S. President Donald Trump on the economy and numerous comments from Federal Reserve officials.

    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday that Trump, in an address to Congress on Tuesday, will preview some elements of his plans to cut taxes for the middle class, simplify the tax system and make U.S. companies more globally competitive.

  18. phil1247 says:


    ” scalded cat reversal ”

    from extension long target at 1265

  19. pooch77 says:

    Maybe get some tza at 16.75

  20. mcgcapital says:

    If this has only happened a few times before in 120 years then at least we know it can only
    get better for those of us who like to play both sides of the tape!

    • vivelaamo says:

      on the other hand if the record gets broken then every day is creating a new record! There is nothing to compare it to. Who knows how long it could go on for.

      • mcgcapital says:

        True… the FTSE 14 in a row in January had a 3% sell off when it ended, so wouldn’t be that surprised to see something similar. It’s just the monotony of the small incremental gains with minimal vol which is annoying me. Wouldn’t mind it going up if it pulled back more than 0.5% to provide some value going long

  21. vivelaamo says:

    Not only will the record get beaten. It will get smashed.

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