SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rebound, DOW +11
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight and the market gapped down to SPX 2353 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2364 yesterday. Right after the open the market started to rebound. At 10am consumer sentiment was reported higher: 96.3 v 95.7, and new home sales were reported higher: 555K v 536K. The market continued to move higher throughout the day, turning positive in the last hour and closing at SPX 2367.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.20%. Bonds gained 17 ticks, Crude slid 40 cents, Gold rose $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 60.5% v 61.1%, and the Q1 GDP estimate was reported unchanged at 2.4%.
The market gapped down at the open for the second Friday in a row. Last week the market hit its low in the first few minutes, then rallied to close the gap and end at the high of the day. Today the market also made its low in the opening minutes, rallied, and also made its high at the end of the day. While the market did pullback 15 points from yesterday’s SPX 2368 high it still did not register an RSI oversold condition today. Relentless uptrend. Best to your weekend, weekend update tomorrow am.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=D&st=2015-06-04&en=today&i=p89439681095&a=508810249&r=1487901691146
Okay,a chart from stockcharts,which the author stressed was a big sell signal-similar to last summer.Yes,Newmont missed earnings.If DXY gets over 101.70,probably no H&S.Miners are very erratic and unpredictable right now.Should have gone down a week go,should have went up a couple days ago.One more sour day from GDX is worth a sell.Or we may be playing that great game of “Whipsaw”.Good luck all.
Thank you TC. Baseball is starting.
Thanks Chris Kimble
Thanks Tony….and everyone xx
Something New — I have com across a new method of applying the OBV indicator.
By – using a 6 day chart on freestockcharts.com Usinmg a 6 day period of the SP500.
The OBV, displays the 2009, OBV low very well. And, since. The 6 day OBV has been
in a strong raising trend pattern. Yes, OBV is at new highs, but no sign of a sell signal
as yet. Came across this new 6 day chart pattern of the OBV. Quite by accident, but.
I rather like it….wish to see the chart ? email me bud_67@hotmail.com….
This is a product, you could use on your own. There is no cost to creating it.
Bud
That’s the spirit Bud, never give up. I hope someday you will find the holy grail, but I am afraid it seems you are looking in the wrong places. Only recently you said the obv made a top, now you saying its “raising”..does that mean its rising yet again and one should discard its recent signal?
Sorry Newbie,not yet
“It’s not magic, it’s Fibonacci”….sometimes the bare facts are such a let-down.
I think the Dow is blowing up to 30,000 without too much of a pullback. As the world economy grows and populations increase the U.S. stock market still is the most stable and regulated in the world. And that’s where the money goes.
Exactly!
MTU weekly commentary – Tracking the Upswings (2/24/17)
from the 2009 low, the Feb 2016 low, the pre-election low.
http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2017/02/mtu-weekend-ed-tracking-upswings-22417.html
Nice chart work, enjoyed it….
Thank you Tony et OEW team, appreciate the great updates this week.
Guessing that Nano-iv either completed at today’s low, or is still in progress; surpassing 2369 ought to confirm the former, preference is the latter.
Retrace looks slightly shallow for mi,ute 4?
Agreed, it is quite shallow; and the equivalent on the DOW is just a blip. Therefore, preferring the retrace to be an a-wave, and now currently in b-wave (perhaps Irregular making new highs), followed by c-wave down to complete wave-iv.
Irregular was my visceral reaction.
Do you have a target for minute 5?
Length, not level
Probably the 2385 pivot range?
If that happens, then according to the count on aforementioned charts, Minor-1 (2084-2277) would be longer than Minor-3 (2257-2385?) —so this would imply a short Minor-5 wave to follow.
If however, Minute-v subdivides and extends to reach 2427, then Minor-1 would equal Minor-3 wave.
thanks Tony.
has the DJIA ever closed at new all time highs for 11 straight days before?
unknown
January of 1967 was last 11 up days, but not sure if they were new highs.
mean’t 1987
Incorrect, check your chart on 3/26/12
Meant 1/3/92
Jan 1987: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-24/trump-at-brink-of-his-own-bull-market-as-dow-flirts-with-history
The 120-year-old measure has set a record on 10 straight days — the longest streak since the Ronald Reagan administration. Two more would tie it for the longest ever.
today was #11
Too strange a day to comment on.Bond yields get pounded down,dollar lifts from 100.60,stocks follow like proper sheep.Gold loves yields falling,GDX doesn’t.See if that continues or not.Good weekend all.