Thursday update

SHORT TERM: another day another pullback, DOW +35

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 244K v 239K, and at 9am the FHFA was reported higher: 0.4% v 0.5%. The market opened 5 points higher than yesterday’s SPX 2363 close, and at an all-time high. However, right after the open the market started to sell off. Just past 11am the SPX hit 2355, and then started to rebound. The rebound continued until 3:30 when the SPX hit 2366. Then a dip into the close ended the day at SPX 2364.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.40%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude rose 80 cents, Gold rallied $10, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: consumer sentiment and new home sales at 10am.

The market opened higher today, hitting a new high, then pulled back 13-points. This is the third time this week the market has made a new high by one-point, and followed that with a pullback of at least 8-points: 2366-2358, 2367-2358, 2368-2355. The previous all-time high heading into this week was SPX 2351. Today’s pullback appeared to be driven by profit taking in the Tech sector. Something to keep an eye on as we close out the week tomorrow. No change in the counts posted, despite lots of churning at current levels. Short term support slips to SPX 2355 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2368 and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum declined below neutral on today’s pullback, but did not hit oversold. Best to your Friday trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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105 Responses to Thursday update

  1. mcgcapital says:

    Out of FTSE, made a real hash of that today. Just got stopped at breakeven having been nearly 80 points up at one point. Thought the break of 7250 was significant given the number of rejections of 7300 but obviously not.

  2. purplember says:

    interesting article on Oil production from morningstar

    Coming Shale Growth a Major Threat to Oil Prices
    Rapid U.S. production growth is looming.
    PrintCommentRecommend (0) Bookmark and Share
    By Stephen Simko, CFA | 02-24-17 | 06:00 AM | Email Article
    OPEC’s production cuts and strong demand growth have 2017 crude fundamentals in their best shape since oil prices crashed two years ago. The consensus outlook is that fundamentals are now strong enough to remain healthy even after OPEC’s cuts lapse. This might have been possible a few months ago, but the odds of this scenario playing out have markedly worsened since. The reason is that major increases in shale activity now have U.S. production firmly on a path of rapid growth, even if rig counts don’t increase further. This growth plus the eventual supply increases from OPEC is likely to be more than enough to erase any market tightness and throw crude markets back into oversupply.

    What’s obvious by now is that current oil prices provide economics that are very attractive to the major U.S. shale producers. This has created the conditions that will allow tight oil to grow rapidly and is a reality that even looming cost inflation will not change. Unless shale producers become more disciplined or OPEC resigns itself to permanently ceding share to the United States–neither of which is likely to occur–oil markets have major problems looming.
    There does remain a good chance that oil prices could rise in the coming months if OPEC compliance remains high or production cuts are extended. Because surging shale output won’t truly begin to move the supply needle until the second half of the year, these would allow for further inventory draws. This could bolster the perception that oil market fundamentals are improving. In reality, oil prices above current levels at any point in the coming months would in fact be pouring gasoline on the flames, since it would encourage even higher levels of U.S. shale investment. Nothing is certain in the world of oil, but clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. We our maintaining our forecast for strong oil prices in 2017, with West Texas Intermediate averaging $58 per barrel, followed by a meaningful pullback to $45 in 2018.

  3. Bud Fox says:

    See, I have placed. Far to many posts. My apology. Shall
    halt posting for minimum of 1 week…encid

  4. wildmarkets says:

    Donald Duck blocked CNN and few media outlets from White house briefing lol

  5. blubrd67 says:

    Fiona, where do you see UGAZ landing before substantial recovery?
    I see around 10.5

    • fionamargaret says:

      I would look at 14 first… is still a bearish chart
      DGAZ has a much better chart….
      I shall look later and see what I come up with……oil is difficult too…chop city…x

  6. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Market is an utter joke. Can’t even go down a few handles before machines kick in or central bankers…. It’s not a market anymore…..It’s a Ponzi scheme


    • trondack says:

      US Fed- Doves, EU Central Bank-Doves, Japan Central Bank-Doves; Doves, Doves, Doves; Bubbles, Bubbles, Bubbles, then Double!!

    • NEWBIE says:

      It has been that way for years. Im suprised you are suprised. One day, the whole thing will collapse over night and bankers will win again.

    • Bud Fox says:

      IMHO….trade what u see…

      • vivelaamo says:

        Doom and gloom bears will never get that. They thrive off pain. They think the average man is getting screwed over by bankers because the stock market keeps going up. How does that make sense?

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          It’s not that it goes up…..It’s the way it behaves….It’s not healthy behavior whatsoever. I’m not saying it should not go higher. It’s the drip drip drip dip buying that is different than the past. It’s simply a joke. Everyone I say it’s a joke your comments are unintelligent assuming I’m short and a bear. The lack of pullbacks due to machines makes this market unhealthy…..Period.


      Trader. Analyst. PM. Sales. The office window cleaner. Don’t matter. Bid the mkt higher then hope to make enough money to get out before it crashes. Don’t get payed in bear markets. Retire, then a new group just do the same thing. Rinse and repeat.
      ”Twas ever thus.

    • wildmarkets says:

      Majority of the Human force work for the prosperity and happiness so trade short technically!

    • vivelaamo says:

      Fyears you blame central banks and now you blame machines. How about you just stop trying to short the market and wish for a crash and go long like everyone else?

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        Again dumb reply. I’m not short. But keep on with your assumption s

        • vivelaamo says:

          Then why so bitter? Btd and embrace the rallies my friend. Shut out all the reasons why it shouldn’t be doing what it does and just do what they do. You will be a lot happier.

  7. mcgcapital says:

    Adding to FTSE shorts here at the close. Ridiculous rally this afternoon but it’s a retest of the bottom of the trading range until it isn’t.

  8. phil1247 says:


    selling half of bonds bot yesterday….target is within ticks

    SPX .
    …no interest in stocks
    except to see if my newly discovered PIVOT at 2363 resists

    see you all next week !

  9. I checked out Ira’s morning call…he said yesterday was an outside day and we broke yesterday’s low today–a bull trap.”First one in a long time.”So he’s not so bullish today.

  10. scottycj1 says:

    Rut is now in 3rd of 3—-retest of breakout complete—-away we go— expecting 1445 to 1500+


  11. Silver leading PMs.No resistance until $19.Gold should get to $1300,which by no coincidence is the downtrend line from the 1900 top.The line in the sand as they say.Miners lagging.Must get above 24.60 and 24.79 (20 and 10d) to launch up and go after the top crow at 25.60-26.Good luck all.Maybe S&P dumps after SNAP and PMs make the move then.We’ll see.

  12. gary61b says:

    I believe we will revisit these blue dashed lines

  13. Bud Fox says:

    Tony’s weeklly, SP chart. Stil has a very very Bullish signature to it.
    Enough said….

    • blackjak100 says:

      What happened to your top and bear market call just days ago?

      • Bud Fox says:

        Glad you asked….feel the SP500 – 1347 is a low point, which I expect will hold.
        The guide in your view is correct. The key, is patience. Waiting for the crowd
        to see, the SDS 13,47/41 low as, thee low. My only conclusion is that the low
        is now firmly in place. And, I have my shares of SDS on hold at slightly, higher levels…
        My EW count is off, but the Bearish divergence views are not.
        My OBV is topping now, and the MACD 10/20/5 is pricing negative divergence.
        Surely, enough for me to get, and remain short the SP500. All, this is enough to hold
        short. IMO…Thanks BJ. wait for your comment….you always offer good advice.

        • Bud Fox says:

          One stock, BJ …I love to monitor is Sears. Think the low was 5.50.
          Been talking to Sears employee’ s and they do not seem alarmed at the
          stock low price. Sure, not happy about it, but I sensed a strong confidence
          that their equity investments will perform well in the coming months. They
          do have patience,– an do should I….I did look at Penny’s, but went with Sears
          for my long term pick….I am done……

    • Bud Fox says:

      From the 1810 SP500 low, I can count 5 waves up. This leads
      me to a less, Bullish market view – given the distance up, the
      SP has moved from 1810….

  14. Correction should end at 2351 SPX as said yesterday. Stops 2343. Could stay at support all day just to take us around. Dog wounded by wild-board need to run to vet. GL

  15. vivelaamo says:

    I need to stick to my own advice and not get distracted from the norm. BTFD!

  16. scottycj1 says:

    Dont blink… could miss the pull back

  17. mcgcapital says:

    Will be first 1% down day since October today. FTSE has broken the range bottom at 7250 and not looking back.

  18. blackjak100 says:

    Anyone notice the futes are down more than 10 pts?

  19. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  20. Richard Glackin says:

    Just out of curiosity, when’s the last time we saw a 15min RSI of 14.03?

  21. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: No time for details tonight folks, but sell signals turning up not only on hourly, but also on the daily charts of RUT, NDX, MID, SML, DAX, BSESN (India) and of many leading stocks!

  22. I’ve been a bear all year and paid the price. Most see this as a Wave 3 Euphoria rally, i see it as a ending blowoff top to culminate the 8 Year Bull Market. I counted 68 trading days from Nov 4th low to today. Dow 17,888 to 20,810 (16.3% Gain). The 1999 rally is what i compare this to. Lasting 62 trading days, taking the Industrials higher by 1,775 points, or 17.8%. After that rally, the Industrials plunged, giving up more than all of those gains over the next two months.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Interesting observation but that rally looked a lot more natural if that makes sense? There were decent pull back all the way up with quite a large one before the crash. The move since the election has been parabolic. I get that alarm bells should be ringing after such a sharp and fast month but the nature of it seems bizarre. Almost like the market was held back all of last year due to political uncertainty and then final unleashed.


      I see a similar thing. The rally from 2280 is a false move. If we see next months candle engulf this months bar the mkt is toast.

    • aahmichael says:

      I see it the same way. This looks just like the 2000 top to me. Short term, we put in a hanging man on the daily yesterday. If SPX closes below 2355 today, then it will be a shooting star on the weekly. In mid-December, I posted here about the Reagan post-election rally. While Vive claims he’s never seen anything like this rally, in fact, this rally is a dud compared to the Reagan rally. At that time, the market rallied 13% in 3 weeks. (compared to the Trump rally of 10% in 16 weeks.) After the 13% rally in November 1980, the market then declined 27% before bottoming in August 1982. I expect much worse this time. Of course, the market has to give up the ghost first, and that means it’s got to get back under 2300. If that happens, then the trapdoor can open.

      • NEWBIE says:

        Aahmichael, good info- thank you for sharing.

      • Jack Sparrow says:

        what is your wave count under this scenario. expanded .flat B till now?

        • aahmichael says:

          If the top is here, then in SPX it can be counted as an expanding triangle that began with the 8/15 decline. That would make the last 12 month rally wave d, with wave e down to follow. That count doesn’t work in the other indexes, though, so the other way is an expanded flat B. I noted the other day that 1810-2363 equals 667-1220 in both price and time. Normally that would be typical of a 5th wave, but it’s impossible to count 5 waves up from 1810 to current levels.

      • aahmichael says:

        I’ll also note that last Wednesday (2/15) was a very telling day in my view. Economic news that morning drove down gold and bonds, yet they both recovered and rallied on the day, even as equities continued higher. Since then, it’s looked to me like the smart money has been in distribution mode in equities, and in accumulation mode in gold and bonds.

  23. -div on daily SPX…for what its worth.If it ever gets unimbedded,maybe down to 2310.We haven’t taken a trip down to the 34d in a while.Good luck all.

  24. stormchaser80llc says:

    Still long 401k and May SPY calls. My LONG signal remains ‘YES’.

    After a record high early this morning, SPX sold off to make the lower low I was expecting. This price action suggests to me that the new ATH was actually a corrective wave higher in the bigger correction lower (B-Wave). The fact that it made a new high is very bullish for the market if I am correct here. At today’s lows some positive divergences were put in, but it would look better if we made 1 more lower low on stronger and broader positive divergences.

    My proprietary Technicals Model remains in very bullish territory. Thus, I continue to believe that higher highs are coming for SPX.

    Breadth is relatively strong right now as well, however the amount of participation above their 20/50 dma did drop of notably today. SPX should turn higher shortly to continue its bullish run, or risk it slipping away.

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  25. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $DJIA at

  26. hooloo1957 says:

    I’m really really really trying to be bullish but hear something from IBD talking about Nvidia

    Normal cup bases range from a decline of 12% from high to low to as much as 33% to 35%. However, in the case of a stock as strong as Nvidia, corrections in the range of 40% to 50% or more are not uncommon. Cisco Systems (CSCO) presented such a precedent during the 1994-to-1995 market pullback; after a huge move from its initial IPO base breakout in October 1990, the internet gear maker fell from 40.75 to 18.75 from March 1994 to July that year, a 54% decline.

  27. Thanks Tony. Do you view 2427 as a possible pivot? And if I may ask what is the math on your 2411 pivot? And is the math on 2385 2236 plus 119 (.618*193). I ask to learn and because I have been trying to reverse engineer where most are trying to take this market through setting various ceilings and then drawing the typical Fib lines down to 2234 to see if price behavior is mirrored in the Fib lines. None of the ceilings examined offer a tight Fib fit but 2427 and 2411, whether out of causation or coincidence, appear to offer the best Fib fit. For example, 2411 nailed 2301 and anticipated the 2321 pivot while 2427 nailed 2279, was close on 2351 and calls for 2385. To state the obvious, outside of your group there are likely countless views of where this puppy may go, making things interesting, explaining unexplained price behavior and my inability to neatly package recent price behavior. And many may have no plan at all, just surfing the waves.

  28. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks –
    Tracking the upswing since Feb 2016 and keeping it simple. See chart.

  29. 123 abc says:

    Tony, any possibility that Nano-iii is complete? There appears to be 5 waves up from 2267.

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