Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: small pullback so far, DOW +33

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 5 points below yesterday’s SPX 2365 close. In the opening minutes the market dropped to SPX 2358, then tried to rally. At 10am existing home sales were reported higher: 5.69M v 5.49M. Around 10:30 the market reached unchanged at SPX 2365, but then headed lower again. At 2pm the FED released: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20170222a.htm. Right after 2pm the SPX hit 2360, then bounced to close at 2363.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude dropped 75 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly jobless claims at 8:30, then the FHFA index at 9am.

The market opened lower today, rallied back to unchanged, but could not make any gains and ended the day with a small loss. Two small pullbacks after new highs this week SPX: 2366-2358, then 2367-2358. Short term momentum did manage to drop to neutral after yesterday’s negative divergence. But still no oversold condition.ย Today could be just another consolidation day after yesterday’s record highs. Short term support appears to be at SPX 2358 and the 2336 pivot, with resistance at SPX 2367 and the 2385 pivot. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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140 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. micky says:

    It does not look like we will get my weekly target of 2390ish this week, so it moves up to 2400 odd for next week.

  2. locanbbs says:

    Last half hour of trading: Suddenly the uptrend is being actively pushed down – opposite effect of PPT. Soros Dumping?

  3. kingfrogcash says:

    Future vix rising fast, feels bad

  4. phil1247 says:

    SPX close today is at

    2363.22

  5. vivelaamo says:

    I think this bull market that starter Feb 16 could be bigger and stronger than the last one from 2009 to 2015. The price action is incredible.

    • aahmichael says:

      At what specific level would SPX have to print for you to say that the bull market from Feb 16 is over? Thanks.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Good question but how can one answer that until they think the bull market is over? I certainly can’t but if it’s to be bigger and stronger than 2009 to 2016 than I would expect to see above 3000 before even considering the bull could be over. WTFDIK ๐Ÿ˜Š

        • aahmichael says:

          Ok. So you expect it to travel above 3000 before even considering the bull to be over. I understand that. However, what I’m asking is at what level on the downside would it have to exceed for you to consider it over? For example, would it have to take out 1810 before you consider it over? If not, then what level would it be? Thanks.

  6. lunker1 says:

    FEMTO?!

    using Tony’s 60min chart
    Jan 30 low nano 2
    Feb 1 low pico 2
    Feb 2 low femto 2

    Feb 13 low is femto 4
    Feb 15 low is pico 4
    today’s low is nano 4

    still need micro and minute 4

  7. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/7r79jh?image

    Tony

    SPX 2363 pivot ?

  8. vivelaamo says:

    An old friend of the sites emailed me the other day and while I enjoyed reading his posts there is no way I can agree with his very bearish call for thh next few months.


  9. A while back,when gold was $100 less, I posted a Trader Moe chart.He predicted gold could get to 1250.Now,all his scenarios appear to range from bearish to extremely bearish.Maybe he’ll be wrong this time.Maybe not.


    • Here was that chart.Looks a lot more bullish if 1250 breaks up on this one.

      • To me,it looks like its following the orange trajectory,as gold went to 1250,back to 1217,then back up.So 1310 anyways looks like a good chance.I bought some today.Later.

      • Any thoughts on why TM switched to bearish? Possibly due to the lack of a solid break-out past 1250 as we seem to be stalled out right around there at the moment? /GC 1250 coincides with the 50% retracement of 2016’s high and there also appear to be quite a few overlapping extension/resistance levels above.

        My take on this is we are neutral/slightly bearish in the short-term before continuing higher for 2017 if we can break past ~1260 and ~1280 with conviction to invalidate the short-term and long-term bearish rally counts. I’ve taken profits on GLD and switched to hedging slightly bullish long-term for a possible pullback or correction. Will adjust as needed.

        @phil, any thoughts on this?

  10. vivelaamo says:

    Dow strong and spx flat on a down day! Lol

  11. phil1247 says:

    SPX 2363 ….

    will it now provide resistance?
    ….waiting to find out

  12. torehund says:

    GOod weekend Tony and all, fireworks next week ๐Ÿ˜

  13. Lee X says:

    Tony that’s a pretty good looking – div , but aren’t they all ( This is sarcasm )

  14. Bud Fox says:

    SP500 R 2363….

  15. CampFreddie says:

    CME Oil Futs very twitchy today – Again, as per recent charts, Oil spike imminent imho. Gl all.

  16. locanbbs says:

    Trannies gave sell Signal yesterday; today other markets are obviously following. Trannies = early indicator?

  17. vivelaamo says:

    RUT is playing ball and pulling back. Dow still strong.

  18. tommyboys says:

    AAII right ON long term averages this week…

    http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

  19. phil1247 says:

    sold GLD and GDX

    holding SLV ..strongest of the bunch and in extensions

    bought EUO ( double short euro) initial position….could be trade of the year

    DOLLAR to 106 if it pans out

  20. gary61b says:

    es possible pop at 58.75, then E wave up

  21. Jack Sparrow says:

    continuing from my previous count..now we are in the the 5th of 3 …should complete with one more high probably tomorrow then the 4th will have 20-40 points drop before the 5th..to complete this whole move that started from 2260…so far the count is playing quite accurate in real time

  22. When you see the 34d is below the 13d(on Mr C’s GDX daily chart)as it was for the first 6 months last year…the 34 d is a good buying area.It held yesterday and should rally from here.When the 13d is below the 34,as the second half of last year,there was no support on selloffs.We SHOULD buy dips now on GDX,I think until that scenario changes.Goldfingers crossed.

  23. ragnar5 says:

    Bubble Map from Professor Sornette shows increasing risk for SPX, US Financials, and MSFT. Just click on the red rectangles to see details of risk scores and price behavior:
    http://tasmania.ethz.ch/pubfco/fco.html

    • Bud Fox says:

      agreed..9 month cycle has been topping, soon to move lower…fyi

      Thanks Tony, wish your health remains strong….low 80’s, here in Florida

  24. phil1247 says:

    / ES

    next target 2369

    but getting sloppy now ..
    ..again … probably 5th wave action

  25. vivelaamo says:

    Could see a small pb from today if we don’t see new ATH’s. Inside bars for SPX and Rut. Keep your powder dry homies.

  26. vivelaamo says:

    https://m.youtube.com/user/futuresanalysts

    One of if not the best technical analyst out there. Which I discovered him years ago.

  27. Just want to mention a couple things.
    1)Wondering when the dollar craters.After the March Fed meeting?Sooner?Today?
    2)Ira Epstein says “gold needs to get above 1243.Would lead to 1256 and impose higher highs and higher lows.” He wants to be bullish pretty badly it seems.It’s set up that way,but DXY has to cooperate and the miners do too.Getting GDX above 24.45 (20d) and 24.95 (10d)in a hurry and not selling off again is the important signal to me.I’m waiting at 10% GDX.Avi’s 23.75 held today.
    One more thing.Epsteins vids have got me hooked on slow stochastics and SPX has been embedded for 10 days,I believe.After Trump was elected,it went 11 days before sliding under 80–followed by a minor selloff.So maybe we’re close to the end of this minute iii ?
    Good luck all.

    • alexhartley1 says:

      Why does the USD need to crater? Do you think it will crater as Europe slowly goes through more potential turmoil this year and next? French and German elections. Issues in Italy and another round of bailouts and trouble with Greece. There is the potential next for a sovereign debt default. If there is one I don’t think it will be in the US.

      • alexhartley1 says:

        I’d imagine it trades between 100-108 eur/usd. Above that may need to change my mind on usd in general

        • H&S has been threatening to provide a selloff when right shoulder gives way.A break of initially 100 and then more importantly 99.30,m i g h t get it to 96 -97.UUP 25.60.Been reading on the dollar historically.Sometimes in rate hike cycles,the dollar actually falls.If the Fed doesn’t hike until June,so much the better.Maybe gold rallies until LaPen in France gets decided on.GDX only up 1 1/2% with the $15 move in gold today.Like you suggest,maybe gold and the dollar can rise together for a while,but that’s not best case scenario for gold.

          • alexhartley1 says:

            There is a H&S but I believe there’s also an inverse H&S. There isn’t a best case scenario of gold. It’s in a bear market and this is a bear market bounce until proven otherwise. It has some more room to run for sure but ….. I am not necessarily saying the USD rises because of rates rising though that seems as good a reason as any but because the chance of issues in Europe coming to the fore including a sovereign debt default are more than likely. At the end of the day the USD is still the global currency.

  28. blackjak100 says:

    Can we all simply agree growth or earnings do not matter to the stock market? It’s simply due to ZIRP like I’ve said for over 2 years.

    • blackjak100 says:

      if TC’s P3 count is correct, it simply means very low rates over next 1-3 years with no consequences. Trump’s tax plan, growth, or earnings will have nothing to do with the meteoric rise.

    • Millan Tomic says:

      You are right, currently SPX EPS Oper are coming at 106.90 for 2016 which is a tad less than 2013 EPS and much less than 2014 EPS. In comparison market is way higher. It is all one game of shrinking equity risk premium aka multiple expansion which is a function of competing rates, liquidity and sentiment:).

  29. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: Markets in General consolidating or weakening (DJT,TRAN;JBHT with solid sell signal). Typical is NDX, which is in a sideways channel now, but weakening on BB% indicator. Only SSEC (China) moving solidly up.
    If US gov. doesn’t get its act together soon, patience will wear thin and bear market may begin. Especially seeing as Trump has a Merchantilist philosophy (every country for its own), which has been the starting Signal for more than one Depression.(=> market historians ??)
    Ndx hourly futures:

  30. fionamargaret says:

    http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Daily_Report_Feb_22_2017.htm
    Thanks Amateur- Investor

    Thanks Tony…..and everyone xx

    • locanbbs says:

      In other words, Amateur Investor is inconclusive? Stock market showing unusual movements: Wants to go up, but fundamental situation (incompetant U.S. Gov. = Trump) too weak a foundation.

      I just got up and will check my charts and return. Because of my busy schedule and many issues with my new laptop: Lenovo with Windows 10 (almost like the Trump government in computers), it is too difficult for me to post more often at the moment.

      • bolderbob says:

        Just wondering if you were in cash since the election?

      • fionamargaret says:

        I am glad you posted Locan – there was nothing from Raymond James and Kimble today,
        just a rather inconclusive idea from AI….sorry…so it feels rather strange.
        Argerich’s Chopin is so totally magical…I think folks must wonder why pianists lift their hands high off the keyboard at times….it is just you feel the notes and sound rising, and you reach out in the moment to caress…
        I like to choose videos rather than just sound, so you can actually be part of the orchestra, and let the sound wrap itself around you…

        • locanbbs says:

          100%! – AI is right, we are in Limbo right now, and if you saw my horoscope Analysis of Trump several updates ago, there’s not much hope for Change (only worse!) unless he is removed from Office soon! As a “normal” citizen, he would be harmless, but as leader, lots of “Boom, Boom!” (Sun) but in the end helplessness (Moon).

        • blubrd67 says:

          Nice explanation! ๐Ÿ˜‰
          Valentina LIsitsa does that cat like lifting of hands a lot

        • 123 abc says:

          transformative power of classical music…

          • fionamargaret says:

            Thanks 123….music takes you to feelings you thought were buried, and to heights of bliss, but most of all it makes us more humane….now if only the math I used in scoring for transposing instruments was fib embracing…..x

    • tradeanimal says:

      Thanks Fiona and others…a truly treasure trove this morning!!

  31. stormchaser80llc says:

    Still long 401k and May SPY calls (Up greater than 50%!, though slightly lower today). My LONG signal remains ‘YES’.

    My proprietary Technicals Model was down a little today. But this suggests more room to the upside as readings are currently in very bullish territory. Thus, I continue to believe that higher highs are coming for SPX.

    The hourly chart had negative divergence’s at yesterday’s highs. At this mornings expected low, there were a lack of positive divergences. Odds say a lower low is needed here to form positive divergences. Breadth is relatively strong right now as well.

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  32. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $GBPUSD at https://www.tradingchannels.uk

  33. 123 abc says:

    Barring any further subdivisions, the wave count from the 2267 low appears complete. Therefore, guessing an approx 30-point pullback to the 2336 pivot range, and then resuming to the 2385 pivot. Expecting futures to make marginal hew highs overnight to complete respective wave count.


  34. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/LSqQRP?image

    BEFORE

    and after

    http://tos.mx/Gee1Gt?image

    SPX 2363 …..

    possibly a newly discovered pivot ?

    • aahmichael says:

      2363 is where 5 (1810-2363) equals 1 (667-1220).

      • phil1247 says:

        thanks

      • vivelaamo says:

        That’s quite interesting. Well until we smash through 2363 anyway.

      • aahmichael … nice observation. Where do you project the market from here?

        • aahmichael says:

          Sal, I really don’t do projections. I can make a lot of educated guesses, but that’s a pointless exercise. First the market has to turn, and then I’ll evaluate the nature of the decline. If we’re completing wave 5, then everyone here should already know what the Fib retracements are. I will say, though, that I can’t count 5 waves up from 1810 to present levels. There just isn’t any way to do it. The only thing I know is that this wave matches the 1st wave in both price and time. Sometimes, that’s the only thing that matters.

          • Ok thank you for that. I’ve seen a far fetched wave labeling that is designed to paint an ominous picture… We are in a Multi Decade MEGAPHONE pattern.. low in 2002 was B, 2007 Top was C, 2009 bottom D and now the E wave. E wave goes like this: Wave A topped in summer 2011 with B bottom. From there C (Wave 1 Last 2012, Wave 2 bottom Late 2012, Wave 3 Top in Mid 2015 Wave 4 bottomed in Aug 2015 and now the Final Wave 5.

      • blackjak100 says:

        True, but wave 1 could have ended at 1356 with a truncation (right shoulder). Why? Furious drop followed which is a characteristic of truncations.

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