Friday update

SHORT TERM: pullback then new high close, DOW +4

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1% as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 2340. The SPX had close at 2347 yesterday. Right after the open the market tried to rally. At 10am leading indicators were reported higher: 0.6% v 0.5%. The SPX bounced to 2344 by 10:30, retested 2340 by 11:30, and then tried to rally again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2351 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.40%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude was flat, Gold dipped $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 pivot. This week the Q1 GDP estimated was lowered: 2.4% v 2.7%. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 61.1% v 61.7%.

The market gapped down at the open today for the first time in about 3 weeks. The gap down took the SPX to 2340, one point above yesterday’s low. Then after a small bounce the SPX retested 2340. After that it rallied for the rest of this options expiration Friday. Not much has changed from yesterday’s report. SPX 2332 continues to be a key short term level. A break below, and a retest of the 2321 pivot is likely. A breakout above SPX 2351, and a rally to the 2385 pivot is likely. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2351 and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum remained around neutral for most of the day, then ended overbought. Best to your 3-day weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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11 Responses to Friday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Tony, and everyone…..charts and ideas tomorrow. xx

  2. bhuggs52 says:

    Thanks Tony, as always. Swarming was a kick last Tuesday, as long as good questions were posted. It was kind of like a coffee klatch without the coffee and the klatch, although I had my afternoon Joe with me during the swarm. So it was cool, kind of like the king of digital klatches. I do look forward to the Weekend update. Cheers.

  3. Bud Fox says:

    Tony, thanks for the guide you bring…

  4. Thanks Tony. Happy Friday.

  5. Thanks Mr C.I added 10% yesterday(GdX) to get up to 20%,but a poor followup to yesterday’s close.MACD crossing over on the daily caused me to resell.I didn’t want to get caught with a drop below the 20d.So back to the drawing board.Supposed support is at the 20d and 23.75 (Avi level).We’ll see how it trades.Good luck all.

    • P.S. The crows are tough.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Commodities are a conundrum Learned…..on the one hand you think reflationary trade, higher commodities, higher bond yields, risk on….and the second hand suggests political risk is not being referenced enough, commodities have peaked (look at the way oil is behaving) and yields staying much the same or lower.
        I do know gold is being looked on favourably by fund managers who never would have considered it before…we shall see……… the crows…

  6. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al for a week of great OEW daily updates; appreciate the assistance and expertise.

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