SHORT TERM: flat open – then pullback, DOW +8
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 housing starts were reported higher: 1246K v 1226K, building permits were reported higher: 1285K v 1210K, weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 239K v 234K, and the Philly FED was reported at a 30-year high: 43.3 v 23.6. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2349, bounced up to the 2351 high, and then started to pullback. Just before 11am the SPX hit 2339, then bounced to 2347 by 1pm. A pullback to SPX 2341 followed by 2:30, then a bounce ended the day at 2347.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.05%. Bonds rallied 15 ticks, Crude added 30 cents, Gold rallied $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 pivot. Tomorrow: leading indicators at 10am and it’s options expiration friday.
The market opened flat today, bounced, and then pulled back 12 points. The pullback was enough to reset the short term RSI, but the daily/weekly remain quite elevated. From the late-January SPX 2267 low the market has rallied in 9 small waves to the SPX 2351 high. During the rally the pullbacks have ranged between 10 and 17 points. The current pullback is well within that range. If it extends lower, and drops below SPX 2332, then a retest of the OEW 2321 pivot range is possible. Short term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2351 and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum dropped to neutral during today’s pullback, and was rising at the close. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
I forget you lot are day traders. I’m adding and adding for 2017 and beyond. The more it falls the more I add. I will add until the cows come home. Have a good weekend all.
Wave (iv) likely not over at yesterday’s low with DJIA green 8 days in a row. I agree it seems like a wave iv however
10 day targets. dow 2150. snp 2385-90 Naz 6000 rut 1440,Check back on March 3
Cr.CBZ
SPX may be headed to 2035. WTI crude to $26 per bbl. (Thoughts from the Rabbit hole.)
Weren’t you just calling for SPX 3000?
2019???
Jeez,what do you make of a day like today.I’ve been waiting for something to happen to give a clue.Lots of non-sequitors.TLT up–DXY up.TLT up–GDX down.DXY up–SPX flat to down.Hopefully,just consolidation.Gold holding above 1237 support,but GDX not holding 10d sma at 25.02.Lots of indecision today.If anything monumental occurs(doubt it),I’ll stop back in later,otherwise have a good Friday everyone.
Up into Feb 27-March 3 ,this sideways pullback is done today
Thanks Tony
Another great Pivot filled week. UNU session was on target, again.
GL & Enjoy the long weekend
Beware the Fake News! 😉
ha! currently 61* in AZ which is factual but the reporting of it is #fakenews. You have to look at the source. Clearly a hateful thermometer.
61 Whoa! Is there ice on Lake Pleasant? ☃️
65 here in the Midwest = Perfect, get your a^^ outside! 😉
ES possible 2246 next shorting level…
2346
2345 will hic up
Why short at 2346 when it can’t bust thru 2340 for longer than 15 minutes
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/16/ny-fed-us-household-debt-at-highest-level-since-2008.html
Buying the market tops is delusional, and counts get recounted. Stay alert my friends.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP
Im not sure about the ending period debt was calculated for but debt-to-income chart points back to July’16, at least half a year old. One of the data points has to be skewed any way as it does not make sense to me otherwise.
Observation:
Q3 2016: 10.01492 (+ more)
Updated: Dec 27, 2016
Vital economic stat – Velocity https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
Since M2 velocity peaked in 1996, the economy has grown 75%
Two different data sets. CNBC is of course is fear mongering with a big fat daunting headline ratings (fear sells). While the truth is the Fed chart showing that while debt may be near highs, it is now more manageable than it has been in two decades due to job, income and savings growth. CNBC selectively omits the “whole” story for effect. Take away? More fake news – seeing it everywhere now. Without the dramatic “media” Dow might be 50-100k, employment FULL and happiness factors WAY up. Mainstream media LOVES to keep us all in fear. Solution – don’t watch or listen – all hype.
Dow 100K ??? HAHA – Where do you get these numbers from??????
It took 7 YEARS for the Dow to move 13K points on the back of massive QE spending.
At that rate it is going to take over 40 YEARS to reach that level.
And that’s assuming no bear markets and a straight upwards path.
Without the national debt being increased Dow would be like 10 K- media has little to do with it.
Was it delusional when the market made new ATH’s in 2013? Now imagine if Nov is the same as 2013?
Vive, current credit cycle started in 2009, it lasts 7-9 years, we are in the 9th year. Between 2009 and 2017 there were only 5-15% corrections possible, now the time is running out. On top of that, every presidential election but one, new president getting in the office after previous one serving 8 years, had a bear market on his hands several months after election. Do you want to be a market student or tell markets what to do?
I’m not talking day trading here, just a medium-long perspective.
I get all that but we also had 2 years of going absolutely nowhere. You have to take that in to consideration.
No, I don’t. Rules cannot be bent.
what rules? There are no rules.
OK, then – good luck.
Thanks. You too.
do we have a triangle forming for 4th?
So the patterns continues all week,open down 50-60 points or -6-8 snp points the slowly rally rest of day until were green at close.Not allowed to go down 1-2%
Trin opened 1.75 with good selling pressure ,now selling pressure has dried up as trin down to .85
Yep. It will drop eventually but why try and predict it. Just keep with the pattern until proven otherwise.
Tony if spx drops to 2300 on this pullback would that change your count? thanks
short term probably, it should drop that far
Should it?
ES Morning Update February 17th, 2017 – http://reddragonleo.com/2017/02/17/es-morning-update-february-17th-2017/
http://tos.mx/uuAWUI?image
/ES
2331 would be a nice buy the dip spot..if there is participation
which is the 38% support level of daily extension long
other supports shown with
2319 as drop dead support
Tony
and everyone ….
have a great holiday weekend ..have to leave now
see you all tuesday
DA BOYZE
they are sooooooo predictable
2333 /es target coming up to scare the children
then we will see if there is a dip to buy
or if da boyze have another trick for us
you all did get my hint about bonds giving the clue yesterday .. yes?
POOCH
you asked what i was smoking yesterday when i said 2333
i smoke nutting but deee best ganja maaaaannnnn…
dont worry bout a TING!
LOL.. all pumped up
That was on your -250 dow points but never the less the market is bearish this morning,dont want to see any price reversals today.Good call Phil
2341 now 8 more points down to go
pooch ..
.after watching those guys for years
none of their tricks surprise me..
just trying to stay one step ahead of them
so they dont take my money 🙂
Phil i had a three day window for a pullback starting Tuesday/Wed .But the reversal in small caps after the open 3 days in a row was killing me,maybe today we can hold a 1 1/2 % decline
if it goes down the obvious support is around 2323
selling half of bonds bot yesterday
/ZB near .618 resistance
2333!! Yes please. I’ll have some of that any day!
Vive going long at the close,lets get bloody red today
If I heard correctly,yesterday’s presser from DJT outlined Obamacare proposals in mid to late March followed by tax cut proposals.That’s not “a couple weeks”, that was just heard last week.Not sure if the market will wait that long.I guess the dollar will tell the story.Key reversal two days ago and follow through yesterday.But technical plans with DXY often go astray.Strictly “show me” now–on an hour by hour basis.
original goal … tax plan by June
DXY drop stopped at 20d sma…about 100.45.Back to 100.60 right now.Take out the 20d and 99ish is the goal.Gold would love that move,stocks not so much.Later.
ADD ADD ADD
any break of 2336 ES futures should produce the 20-30 pt pullback Tony had mentioned
Chart of the day is $RUT at http://www.tradingchannels.uk
Fiona your call on dgaz may be right…i just saw it
I hope so Jack…..have a nice long weekend.
NG looks a bit “bear trappy” to me, I have a small long here.
No +D yet….just a bounce that will get sold…GL all
Still long 401k and May SPY calls. My LONG signal remains ‘YES’.
My proprietary Technicals Model was slightly lower today, however it is still in very bullish territory. Thus, I continue to believe that higher highs are coming for SPX. The hourly chart failed to show positive divergences at today’s low, so a lower low is expected. This may come overnight or tomorrow morning. Similarly, VIX may have topped with a 5 wave advance, but things would look better if a higher high was put in with negative divergences.
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Thanks Chris Kimble
https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=4bcf5e76-eeaf-4295-b20a-826e1541b8dd&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
Thanks Raymond James
Thanks Tony….and all.xx
Fiona, reading your daily contribution to this blog is always a treat and your choice of music videos is just delightful and always classy. Thank you.
How nice Philippe….I hope you are doing well x
Even Raymond James is confused by the market action.
Thanks Tony. I watch buying and selling in both markets and in the futures market buyers poured in the late afternoon (1) to contain damage, (2) because sellers were unable to push it below the morning low and (3) Trump shouted at his presser his administration was working like a fine Swiss watch…..a little levity on the back of what is LIKELY a serious issue. On a different note, the last big move we had was from 2084 to 2277, around 193 points; do you think the market may be using the length of this wave to navigate uncharted waters? If it is, then (starting at 2234) and adding .618 of the length is it possible/likely we might see an interim top around 2354? And the 2.618 on the shallow pullback from 2277 to 2234 is 2350, giving further weight to the possibility we may be in the neighborhood of a decent pullback to take us 2385 barring an economic or political shock.
@2355: Nano-iii = Nano-i * 2
Thanks
NIce work, on the SP chart…thanks….
Fotis
i did take your sage advice today …..i made .ZERO trades today
no dip buying unless i see a better setup
uptrend weakening in /es with first overlap of a breakout level this week
probably a 4th wave developing…..
da boyze have the perfect setup to scare the children tomorrow
i would not be at all surprised to see / es at 2333 in am
with a gap down open tomorrow
Phil,
I don’t think 11 points down is going to “scare” anybody…….
lucky if you see 4 point gap down
Thanks a lot Tony.
[EOD] Stocks-
A proper five or a double zigzag? See charts on ES and SPX.
http://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2017/02/market-timing-update-21617.html
Tony, if the SPX drops below 2332, do you think that the 9 waves from 2267 to 2351 complete Nano-iii wave, or do you think they complete Pico-1 of Nano-iii wave?
depends how far below 2332
but no pico 1/2 of nano iii … pico 3/4
if low enough nano iii/iv
Thank you Tony, appreciate the details; updated charts below.
Unlike 9 waves in cash, the futures have made 12 waves from the 2267 low. This would suggest one more wave up to complete Nano-iii wave.
Note: Following charts track the NYSE count (i.e. Primary-v), so the count is offset by one degree up…
you have 4 overlapping 1 at the end
ending diagonal?
Correct, an Ending Diagonal. Suppose the labelling ought to be a-b-c-d-e instead. Counts are speculative of course.
stocks are speculative……..of course 🙂
Go long Tuesday pullback will be done Friday
too early to be buying short term “just because” without very good technical reason imo, which I don’t see, looking for a larger pullback
Fair enough but no point trying to short in my opinion. Could leave you very frustrated.
Thanks Tony. Hope you all been bought the dip. May feel odd buying all times highs but another 50 points from here is still easy money.