Thursday update

SHORT TERM: flat open – then pullback, DOW +8

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.4%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 housing starts were reported higher: 1246K v 1226K, building permits were reported higher: 1285K v 1210K, weekly jobless claims were reported higher: 239K v 234K, and the Philly FED was reported at a 30-year high: 43.3 v 23.6. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2349, bounced up to the 2351 high, and then started to pullback. Just before 11am the SPX hit 2339, then bounced to 2347 by 1pm. A pullback to SPX 2341 followed by 2:30, then a bounce ended the day at 2347.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.05%. Bonds rallied 15 ticks, Crude added 30 cents, Gold rallied $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 pivot. Tomorrow: leading indicators at 10am and it’s options expiration friday.

The market opened flat today, bounced, and then pulled back 12 points. The pullback was enough to reset the short term RSI, but the daily/weekly remain quite elevated. From the late-January SPX 2267 low the market has rallied in 9 small waves to the SPX 2351 high. During the rally the pullbacks have ranged between 10 and 17 points. The current pullback is well within that range. If it extends lower, and drops below SPX 2332, then a retest of the OEW 2321 pivot range is possible. Short term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2351 and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum dropped to neutral during today’s pullback, and was rising at the close. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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90 Responses to Thursday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    I forget you lot are day traders. I’m adding and adding for 2017 and beyond. The more it falls the more I add. I will add until the cows come home. Have a good weekend all.

  2. blackjak100 says:

    Wave (iv) likely not over at yesterday’s low with DJIA green 8 days in a row. I agree it seems like a wave iv however

  3. pooch77 says:

    10 day targets. dow 2150. snp 2385-90 Naz 6000 rut 1440,Check back on March 3

  4. cj32 says:


  5. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Jeez,what do you make of a day like today.I’ve been waiting for something to happen to give a clue.Lots of non-sequitors.TLT up–DXY up.TLT up–GDX down.DXY up–SPX flat to down.Hopefully,just consolidation.Gold holding above 1237 support,but GDX not holding 10d sma at 25.02.Lots of indecision today.If anything monumental occurs(doubt it),I’ll stop back in later,otherwise have a good Friday everyone.

  6. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Another great Pivot filled week. UNU session was on target, again.
    GL & Enjoy the long weekend
    Beware the Fake News! 😉

  7. gary61b says:

    ES possible 2246 next shorting level…

  8. kvilia says:
    Buying the market tops is delusional, and counts get recounted. Stay alert my friends.

  9. Jack Sparrow says:

    do we have a triangle forming for 4th?

  10. pooch77 says:

    So the patterns continues all week,open down 50-60 points or -6-8 snp points the slowly rally rest of day until were green at close.Not allowed to go down 1-2%

  11. gary61b says:

    Tony if spx drops to 2300 on this pullback would that change your count? thanks

  12. phil1247 says:


    2331 would be a nice buy the dip spot..if there is participation

    which is the 38% support level of daily extension long

    other supports shown with
    2319 as drop dead support

  13. phil1247 says:


    they are sooooooo predictable

    2333 /es target coming up to scare the children

    then we will see if there is a dip to buy
    or if da boyze have another trick for us

  14. learnedmylesson25 says:

    If I heard correctly,yesterday’s presser from DJT outlined Obamacare proposals in mid to late March followed by tax cut proposals.That’s not “a couple weeks”, that was just heard last week.Not sure if the market will wait that long.I guess the dollar will tell the story.Key reversal two days ago and follow through yesterday.But technical plans with DXY often go astray.Strictly “show me” now–on an hour by hour basis.

  15. chrisk44342 says:

    any break of 2336 ES futures should produce the 20-30 pt pullback Tony had mentioned

  16. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $RUT at

  17. Jack Sparrow says:

    Fiona your call on dgaz may be right…i just saw it

  18. stormchaser80 says:

    Still long 401k and May SPY calls. My LONG signal remains ‘YES’.

    My proprietary Technicals Model was slightly lower today, however it is still in very bullish territory. Thus, I continue to believe that higher highs are coming for SPX. The hourly chart failed to show positive divergences at today’s low, so a lower low is expected. This may come overnight or tomorrow morning. Similarly, VIX may have topped with a 5 wave advance, but things would look better if a higher high was put in with negative divergences.

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  19. Thanks Tony. I watch buying and selling in both markets and in the futures market buyers poured in the late afternoon (1) to contain damage, (2) because sellers were unable to push it below the morning low and (3) Trump shouted at his presser his administration was working like a fine Swiss watch…..a little levity on the back of what is LIKELY a serious issue. On a different note, the last big move we had was from 2084 to 2277, around 193 points; do you think the market may be using the length of this wave to navigate uncharted waters? If it is, then (starting at 2234) and adding .618 of the length is it possible/likely we might see an interim top around 2354? And the 2.618 on the shallow pullback from 2277 to 2234 is 2350, giving further weight to the possibility we may be in the neighborhood of a decent pullback to take us 2385 barring an economic or political shock.

  20. phil1247 says:


    i did take your sage advice today …..i made .ZERO trades today

    no dip buying unless i see a better setup

    uptrend weakening in /es with first overlap of a breakout level this week

    probably a 4th wave developing…..

  21. phil1247 says:

    da boyze have the perfect setup to scare the children tomorrow

    i would not be at all surprised to see / es at 2333 in am

    with a gap down open tomorrow

  22. mtu MTU says:

    [EOD] Stocks-
    A proper five or a double zigzag? See charts on ES and SPX.

  23. 123 abc says:

    Tony, if the SPX drops below 2332, do you think that the 9 waves from 2267 to 2351 complete Nano-iii wave, or do you think they complete Pico-1 of Nano-iii wave?

  24. pooch77 says:

    Go long Tuesday pullback will be done Friday

  25. too early to be buying short term “just because” without very good technical reason imo, which I don’t see, looking for a larger pullback

  26. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Hope you all been bought the dip. May feel odd buying all times highs but another 50 points from here is still easy money.

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