Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then new highs, DOW +107

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were flat to lower overnight. At 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: 0.6% v 0.3%, the NY FED was reported higher 18.7 v 6.5, and retail sales were reported higher: 0.4% v 0.6%. Then at 9:15 industrial production was reported lower: -0.3% v 0.8%, as was capacity utilization: 75.3% v 75.5%. The market opened 3 points below yesterday’s SPX 2338 close, then immediately started to work its way higher. At 10am business inventories were reported higher: 0.4% v 0.7%, and the NAHB was reported lower: 65 v 67. The market then rallied to SPX 2345 just before 11am, dipped to 2339 by 11:30, then moved even higher. Just past 3pm the SPX hit 2351, then dipped to end the day at 2349.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.60%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude slid 15 cents, Gold added $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 pivot. Tomorrow: housing starts, building permits, weekly jobless claims and the Philly FED all at 8:30.

The market opened slightly lower again today, but immediately reversed and started making new highs. Just past 11am the SPX cleared the 2336 pivot, pulled back, and then headed higher. The market has now risen from late-January and SPX 2267 to SPX 2351, with the largest pullback only 17 points. This 3-month uptrend, which started at SPX 2084 in early-November, is now nearing our initial SPX 2380’s target posted in early November. Market breadth is making new highs, daily/weekly MACD’s are moving higher, but the hourly/daily/weekly RSI’s are getting a bit frothy. Would not be surprised to see a 20+ point pullback soon. Then higher highs. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum is extremely overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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136 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Dex T says:

    Snapchat parent sets IPO valuation at up to $22.2 billion

    “Snap Inc. set a valuation for itself between $19.5 billion and $22.2 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, as the disappearing-message app company nears its landmark initial public offering.”

    The valuation range, which equates to $14 to $16 a share, is near the low end of the $20 billion to $25 billion range the Snapchat parent company had earlier targeted. ”

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/snapchat-parent-sets-ipo-valuation-at-up-to-222-billion-2017-02-16

    • Dex T says:

      Snapchat will “only” be valued at $22 billion instead of the earlier $25-35 billion.

      Any heavy hitters out there buying or shorting?

      • wildmarkets says:

        New Issues are not available for short for certain period. Regarding buying, it is never about fundamentals and its all about day trades looking at 3-5 mins chart at the open and rest of the day for day trade.

        • wildmarkets says:

          Also CEO mentioned that they might never be able to make single $ in profit. Wallstreet might love this when shares are available for short. They might run the bears into the moon. Clearly focus on the price action if you are looking to trade new IPO’s.

  2. johnnymagicmoney says:

    So

    the last time the monthly RSI on the DOW was this high was right before the financial crisis and the time before that was not too long before the dot com pop. Now I know I know it can stay elevated longer than you can expect or reason but seriously folks you are comfortable with that monthly reading on the DOW???? or a bunch of other sectors or indices?? Its nosebleed folks

  3. phil1247 says:

    /ES

    next target 2333

  4. phil1247 says:

    NEWS FLASH

    DOW down 250 points

  5. H D says:

    Amazing sentiment for this year/wave. Some were looking for an OPEX hit this week. Interesting it came from the weekly +34. The ‘Real Donald Trump’ did tweet/congratulate himself on the stock market performance before the open. It’s his rally, just ask him. Mild -10, 3 waves down and 3 waves back so far IMO.

  6. Trumps speech today. I inherited a mess. inspiring words, should lead to new highs today

  7. H D says:

    El Matador, Amazing call on CC this week. 1(89)0- 20(55)… just sayin…. !!!

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      it will work until it doesn’t…..sad when less than a ten handle is the buy of the century. If people really want this party to go on longer than expected you should be rooting for some solid drops along the way (which we aren’t getting)

  8. channelsforall says:

    Sorry if I missed it, but can someone explain how the 2385 pivot number was originally calculated?

  9. lunker1 says:

    So far a standard retrace testing yesterday’s intraday support, the pivot and the 60 minute 13EMA. RSI has reset at 50 again. Although there is now H&S

  10. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/OToJF4?image

    2325 /ES at 9 AM tomorrow ?

  11. 2357 then short this afternoon. will see

  12. gary61b says:

    ES weekly bounced off of dynamic trend line.
    https://gyazo.com/f69b76424a296373f5d32e15bde7574c

  13. pooch77 says:

    Tony you have your 1st 10 points down,ha were halfway there

  14. Jack Sparrow says:

    apparently there was a fund which was buying to futures to hedge it short position- it finished buying today

  15. tommyboys says:

    AAII bearishness climbed a few points while bullishness fell a couple – bullishness decently BELOW LT averages while bearishness above…

    http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

  16. A couple weeks ago,I wondered if DXY was going to build a right shoulder up to 102 before THE big dollar drop.Well,part 1 happened.Part 2 to come?.Breaking previous short term low(99.50?) would be a beautiful thing.Ira Epstein said,”Gold over 1247 is another bear trap confirmation.Up to 1267 after that.Today GDX popping over the 10 d is good news.I’ll add more if it stays there EOD.Good luck all.

  17. Jack Sparrow says:

    oh what happened here…i think somebody was calling for this correction yesterday around close. cant remember who it was

  18. vivelaamo says:

    Oooohhh some red. 😈

  19. torehund says:

    All we need is that good old Fat Finger 🙂

  20. phil1247 says:

    not interested in buying any dips

    /YM has been front running the last 2 extension longs before zooming up

    now it is under pressure

    350 point DOW drop could be on tap

    plus …anyone notice bonds perking up??

    hasta…see you all tomorrow

  21. Bud Fox says:

    Tony…wish to say — thank you — for all the hard work/analysis that you do, for all…end

  22. scottycj1 says:

    Phil
    Gap Target at 2385 was for SPX

  23. Jack Sparrow says:

    so is today it or would we have the same pattern as past few days lower and then up

  24. vivelaamo says:

    For those desperate to see weakness check out FTSE. While US markets are going to the moon the FTSE is going nowhere.

    • mcgcapital says:

      28 point divi yesterday which is dragging it down.. easier to play the little range of 7260-7300 than it is to know which way they’ll push this. Wonder if there’s the usual post close ramp today.

  25. brschultz says:

    enjoy the write ups and comments. I see markets hitting peak at Labor Day 2017.

    br
    brschultz.com

  26. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ…

  27. stormchaser80 says:

    Still long 401k and May SPY calls.

    My proprietary Technicals Model is the most bullish since the end of June 2016. Pullbacks should be bought. I also should highlight the negative divergence that has been in place on my cumulative Technicals Model in 2016/2017 was wiped out on Valentine’s Day. It is now making new All Time Highs, confirming the market bullishness.

    VIX has been acting wild and crazy of late. I strongly suspect that VIX expirations today played a large role in this. Should I be correct, VIX should settle down beginning tomorrow.

    Also of note, HYG:IEF ratio made a new 2016/2017 high today.

    My LONG signal remains ‘YES’.

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  28. pooch77 says:

    Tony is 20 point pullback imminent or 2360? 2380+?

  29. Barrick Gold Corp Reveals 180% Rise In Q4 Earnings

    (RTTNews.com) – Barrick Gold Corp ( ABX ) revealed earnings for its fourth quarter that rose from last year.
    The company said its bottom line totaled $255 million, or $0.22 per share. This was up from $91 million, or $0.08 per share, in last year’s fourth quarter.
    Analysts had expected the company to earn $0.20 per share, according figures compiled by Thomson Reuters. Analysts’ estimates typically exclude special items.

  30. blackjak100 says:

    5-1’s and 2’s????

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      Nope so after running triangle the move up completes the 3rd around 2300 (1 completed at 2182) and now we are in fifth (3rd of fifth)…this sequence is the big 3rd move which started from election time.

  31. Bud Fox says:

    Feb highs in place, help define a top from the Feb 2017 lows…..end

  32. Thanks Tony. I am increasingly uncomfortable with this market and yesterday I was going to post that before jumping to conclusions about the strength of 2336 as a pivot we should wait for today’s trading. Suffice to say the market has other designs notwithstanding growing troubles in the Trump presidency. Pundits and others are pointing to the benefits of fewer regulations and lower taxes with little understanding of the political process in achieving these goals, particularly with an increasingly fractious Republican party. I think there is a decent chance the market will eventually overshoot what Trump can realistically deliver in the time frame the market has baked into expectations cake. And while economist believe “hotter” than expected inflation will prove manageable because energy is a major driver of headline inflation, the inconvenient fact is that core inflation in the US is currently around 2.2%. Tony do you remember another member highlighting 2350 several weeks ago? Not a bad call but I tend to believe we are on our way to 2385 as you suggest unless something horrible happens with the Trump presidency. Taking this to be the case, any pullback would be likely devoured by the markets.

  33. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $DJIA at https://www.tradingchannels.uk

  34. phil1247 says:

    http://tos.mx/5dzzHn?image

    SPX

    weekly extension long target 2388

    Tony….

    dont you have a pivot around there? 😉

  35. 123 abc says:

    Possibly expecting the parabolic rise to continue towards at least 2427, where Minute-i equals Minute-iii wave. Then followed by an approx 40 point pullback for Minute-iv wave. However, third waves often extend first waves by 1.618, thereby yielding 2546 for Minute-iii wave… speculative of course…



  36. wildmarkets says:

    Tony, You think this pullback will be orange 3 top and orange 4 and then minute 3 will be new highs?

  37. NEWBIE says:

    We will pull back to 2250. Then we will either rocket to new highs or collapse.

  38. rabbittrader1 says:

    Again,Tony . What would be the designation for a top you mentioned of 3000 in one to three years? Would it be Primary cycle 3 top or major wave 3 top or WHAT. Much thanks .

  39. Thanks Tony!

    Ready to spend some dry powder on next pullback as OEW looks to have a Maradona level of ball control on this market 🙂

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