SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +143
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2323, and continued to rise. The SPX had closed at 2316 on Friday. With 2-point pullbacks along the way the market rose to SPX 2332 by 1:30. Then a pullback into the close ended the day at SPX 2328.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.55%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude dropped 95 cents, Gold slid $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at the 2336 and 2385 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, then FED chair Yellen’s congressional economic testimony at 10am.
The market gapped up at the open today, jumping over the OEW 2321 pivot. It then cleared that pivot and rallied to within 4 points of the 2336 pivot. Considering Monday’s have been generally down days for the past five weeks, rallying right up to the 2336 pivot was an impressive beginning to the week. This rally, from Wednesday’s SPX 2285 low, looks quite impulsive. Should the market clear the 2336 this week, then the next pivot is not until 2385. Short term support is now at the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at the 2336 and 2385 pivots. Short term momentum remained quite overbought all day, and ended overbought. Best to your trading!
UNU SWARM: tomorrow Tuesday at 5PM eastern, please be prompt. For those interested in joining, that did not participate last week, please follow the instructions posted in this link: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/swarm-intelligence/. thank you!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
zerohedge @zerohedge 2m2 minutes ago
Lockhart does not see compelling reasons for a March hike
All aboard the Primary-iii express; ‘pivotal’ moment in OEW…
I feel like days like this have repeated over and over again for years. Keep shorting the top boys.
And you keep buying the top, amigo.
there is no top 😉
lol
😉
what a joy these 3rd waves are… and the indicator guys try and short them all the time.
Indicator stand alone no good indicator+price patterns much better.
interesting juncture, a lot of people looking for 2336 area to short, which means a lot of juice to squeeze higher if it want to. at least we will all know its for real.
Who are lot of people ? The Bots ?
Namaste Tony!
Big day today. Isn’t it?
You discussed abt today way back when we did not fall below 1343 in 2012. Hope you remember.
a lot of waves under the bridge between then and now
I think today’s low was nano 4 of micro 3, now in nano 5 to 2,336…2,347 maybe…
…or today’s low was Micro-3 → Nano-ii
Could Macro 3 finished today and now Macro 4 to 2300.?
Correction: Here are my thoughts on the DOW chart using the OEW count…
Right, I think I’m off by a wave degree…like you have on the Dow chart, on the SPX I think I meant pico 4 of nano 3, which is part of Tony’s micro 3 currently underway. Just trying to say the final thrust up of nano 3 may be upon us. But then there’s still nano 4 and 5 before micro 3 concludes, and then micro 4 and 5 beyond that to conclude minute 3 (Tony’s green label). 3 of a 3 of a 3…of a 3…
Holy negative divergence batman……………………and right at the hugely important 2336
hmmmm me think we are close…………….I think we needed that one last incremental high. Im sorry but Goldman Sachs will never ever ever be a company that produces a consistent stream of revenue and they are not a bank so I don’t care how much rates go up it doesn’t help them as much as BAC or JPM. To push that stock up post election almost 50% in that short time frame is a bubble. And their are a bunch of them………………not small companies but big companies. Lots of companies reporting crappy earnings and lowered outlooks and they are at new highs. Im not saying we wont be higher six months out. I am just saying the pricing here is stupid
Everyone was bearish when Tony’s 2016 count came out. Now everyone’s bullish. Watch the PRICE ACTION. When price action and crowd differ in their positions then you know where to put your trade!
When the market finally take a tumble it will be interesting to see what “reason” is given for the drop.
New ATH with NYAD negative so far….still 2.5 hrs to go.
10 point hit from yesterday high to 2321 pivot, buyers show and we have new ATH’s. aka Turn around Tuesday. I think the -D at 2336 pivot is more substantial and the distance to the MA’s is significant. Expecting some OPEX hit this week. 2300 is HWB
Here is what happened last time. 🙂
https://www.tradingview.com/x/47wn8Vv0/
Talk of 17 being another 13. Consolidate, breakout, retest, and never looked back!
Great stuff GTO
I know this may be a bit early but 100,000 Dow? Just might be the dark energy.
A bit?? – Maybe in a century. Look how many years it took to get this high.
If technology continues to evolve at it’s current rate maybe 60-70 % of the companies will be extinct by that time.
Buying pressure back on +65 dow close
probably +100
New highs again and this is the Bull taking a breather.
GdX dips below 10d sma (24.86)at 24.74.The last time being the exception,breaking the 10 d has lead to some decent selloffs.If it battles back and finishes above and moves up again–would be extremely bullish short term(as last time in late January).
20d is at 24.10,a key level for me.23.75 is key for Avi Gilburt.See how the rest of the day goes.Good luck all.
/ES
out of all longs at 2323
aggressive extension long has failed
hasta all
see you tomorrow
hope your right, see ya tomorrow Phil
trying
please understand what i am saying
i use the most aggressive ext long failure to EXIT longs
not to go short
i would not even THINK of shorting until /ES 2308 is violated
which is the more conservative extension long .618 support level
Still?
/ZB….TLT
raised stops on TBT
BONDS coming into retest of broken support
taking profits on half as soon as aggressive extension short fails
Buy Pressure ends tomorrow on my Market Roadmap…..sometimes its a day early…….?
Cr. CBZ
For the better part of January, coolbiz1 suggested he was short PCLN with $10 stops, initial price target at $1400, or C on his PCLN ‘Wave Fractal reversal points’ chart.
Mildly interesting to read that minimum target ‘was met’ at $1650.
Fractals …
His Tweets on Feb 04, Jan 27 and on Jan 26th…trades in both directions as it develops
Jan 11th…see all expanded for completed trades
es below 2321 then 2316.
Oil using UCO to 27…..5 upside
DBP, DBC…..and maybe we should buy UVXY…
DGAZ to 8….3 upside..
ES Morning Update February 14th, 2017 – http://reddragonleo.com/2017/02/14/es-morning-update-february-14th-2017/
short rut via tza $17.90
Tony, I still think we put in a top for the year before the end of February. But just to be clear on your weekly sp count, this market is in wave 3 and should not come back to the wave1 high of 2134 for many years. Is that correct?
still need to clear 2336
Thank you
By clearing, does this mean hitting 2336 or hitting 2343 (+7) to clear pivot?
2337
http://tos.mx/kMGg8h?image
/ES
aggressive extension long supported overnite at .50 level
but there is a short from highs at 2327 that must be taken out to reach
the 2331 target
2337 after that… around 2340 SPX
note to overconfident bulls……..
if the extensions fail
support drops to /ES 2299
with no guarantee that it will hold
Dollar takes a small dive on Flynn resignation.Not a good sign for confidence purposes,in a new administration,when one of your cabinet has to resign within a month.Vetting,judgement,integrity all has to be viewed as having taken a hit here.How long this story lasts or where it leads is the next question.
Let the games begin!!
Olympics?
Interestingly on P&F charts,ABX and NEM were shown to have upside breakouts in the last week.These are two huge components of GDX.ABX at 19 has a PO of 30,while Newmont is similarly projected percentagewise from 36 to 50+.
But GDX itself is still projected to 7.Can’t wait to see how THAT scenario contorts itself into happening. (It won’t).I added a little today.From 5% to 10%.Good luck all.
maybe a top of some degree is closer than most think…
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4kLQzxWcAAyhxE.jpg:large
Agreed. A LOT OF HOPE is on Mnuchin to deliver on Trump’s economic agenda (cutting tax rates, lessening regulation and reformulate trade deals) . Simple put, i believe expectations will be reigned in.
Also, with All the talk of the ongoing streak of no down move of more than 1% … There’s no better time
there is NO chance of any significant decline until the extension short fails
upside target of 2337 /ES on tap
enjoy !
extension LONG fails
Thanks Chris Kimble
https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=465d34ce-2782-4096-ac4e-ae0fc517b424&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
Thanks Raymond James
Thanks Tony…..and everyone xx
Thanks, Fiona, for bringing us high-class Reports and Music regularly!
Thank you Locan.
I thought you might like Mahler’s 8 (last Friday) ….not only did Mahler write sweeping music, he also embraced philosophy and metaphysics…if you can do music, you can do oil….but you know that.x
Nice choice.I looked it up-from 1989’s “Oh Mercy”.It got great reviews.
SPX made a new All Time High today, further strengthening negative divergences on its technical indicators (except actually breaking one on the ADX +DI). The hourly chart did put in a few negative divergences at today’s highs, so brief weakness can be expected. $VIX has no strong trend, failing to log positive divergences at Friday’s lows or negative divergences at today’s highs.
McClellan and my proprietary Technicals Model were both positive. Due to my model, I suspect we are not yet done with stabs higher.
My legacy LONG signal remains ‘YES’. I remain long in my 401k.
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Thank’s Tony, I think I might have picked up a winning lotto ticket
EL MATADOR says:
December 7, 2016 at 1:45 pm
2350-75 by Jan-Feb….that’s all folks
itchy finger might get triggered in coming days
almost there
Candle Body Support
4 hour 2322 (gap) and 2306
Daily 2293
Chart of the day is $ES at http://www.tradingchannels.uk
Agree, bouraq. Markets may very well top around May and then it will be a rollacoaster down. Why short now when there is no trend change confirmation? I am enjoying almost 100% cash position, getting ready for skiing trip.
Why not go long if markets going up into May.why would one be in cash?
Because one goes skiing until March. Then he’ll see what to do with cash.
ok then
I went for skiing last weekend. There is good snow in the Alps 🙂
Thanks Tony.
http://tos.mx/xKU4Aw?image
/ES
next target is at 2331
then 2337 …. which is around SPX 2340
bullish above 2307
but i will be gone if 2322 is violated
FYI my art work, is calling this a 5th wave high at 2328…
Or….W3. if this is a W3 top. Then, a short term trade short
via SDS would work, for a trader. I plan to wait for the 5th wave
top to form, yet ahead….end
A teacher I had at Auburn University pointed this out on a quiz where the top grade was 87 or so. He went question by question saying anyone who knows the answer just shout it out. Every shouted answer was correct because we all had learned something but none of us earned 100% of the grade.
Appears the Primary-b count will be officially abandoned this week, and Primary-iii will assert itself.
Q: Tony, the SPX and DOW counts are in Intermediate-iii wave, but the various NASDAQ counts are in a subdivided and longest Intermediate-v wave. Do you expect to align the NASDAQ indices with the SPX and DOW counts?
answer: yes
Tony 2336 intra day or must close there
B wave max? intraday
does the dow have a corresponding b wave termination number? Thanks Tony
it already passed its number
Sorry Tony, Could you delete my messages on todays update. They got all messed up.
done, as you requested
Consensus point to a minor pb to 2295…let us see. Either way no doubt will press higher till April…spx 2400´s…