Monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +143

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2323, and continued to rise. The SPX had closed at 2316 on Friday. With 2-point pullbacks along the way the market rose to SPX 2332 by 1:30. Then a pullback into the close ended the day at SPX 2328.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.55%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude dropped 95 cents, Gold slid $8, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises to the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at the 2336 and 2385 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, then FED chair Yellen’s congressional economic testimony at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, jumping over the OEW 2321 pivot. It then cleared that pivot and rallied to within 4 points of the 2336 pivot. Considering Monday’s have been generally down days for the past five weeks, rallying right up to the 2336 pivot was an impressive beginning to the week. This rally, from Wednesday’s SPX 2285 low, looks quite impulsive. Should the market clear the 2336 this week, then the next pivot is not until 2385. Short term support is now at the 2321 and 2286 pivots, with resistance at the 2336 and 2385 pivots. Short term momentum remained quite overbought all day, and ended overbought. Best to your trading!

UNU SWARM: tomorrow Tuesday at 5PM eastern, please be prompt. For those interested in joining, that did not participate last week, please follow the instructions posted in this link: thank you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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93 Responses to Monday update

  1. kingfrogcash says:

    zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 2m2 minutes ago

    Lockhart does not see compelling reasons for a March hike

  2. 123 abc says:

    All aboard the Primary-iii express; ‘pivotal’ moment in OEW…

  3. vivelaamo says:

    I feel like days like this have repeated over and over again for years. Keep shorting the top boys.

  4. micky says:

    what a joy these 3rd waves are… and the indicator guys try and short them all the time.

  5. interesting juncture, a lot of people looking for 2336 area to short, which means a lot of juice to squeeze higher if it want to. at least we will all know its for real.

  6. I think today’s low was nano 4 of micro 3, now in nano 5 to 2,336…2,347 maybe…

    • 123 abc says:

      …or today’s low was Micro-3 → Nano-ii

      • Could Macro 3 finished today and now Macro 4 to 2300.?

        • 123 abc says:

          Correction: Here are my thoughts on the DOW chart using the OEW count…

          • Right, I think I’m off by a wave degree…like you have on the Dow chart, on the SPX I think I meant pico 4 of nano 3, which is part of Tony’s micro 3 currently underway. Just trying to say the final thrust up of nano 3 may be upon us. But then there’s still nano 4 and 5 before micro 3 concludes, and then micro 4 and 5 beyond that to conclude minute 3 (Tony’s green label). 3 of a 3 of a 3…of a 3…

  7. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Holy negative divergence batman……………………and right at the hugely important 2336

    hmmmm me think we are close…………….I think we needed that one last incremental high. Im sorry but Goldman Sachs will never ever ever be a company that produces a consistent stream of revenue and they are not a bank so I don’t care how much rates go up it doesn’t help them as much as BAC or JPM. To push that stock up post election almost 50% in that short time frame is a bubble. And their are a bunch of them………………not small companies but big companies. Lots of companies reporting crappy earnings and lowered outlooks and they are at new highs. Im not saying we wont be higher six months out. I am just saying the pricing here is stupid

    • wildmarkets says:

      Everyone was bearish when Tony’s 2016 count came out. Now everyone’s bullish. Watch the PRICE ACTION. When price action and crowd differ in their positions then you know where to put your trade!

    • Dex T says:

      When the market finally take a tumble it will be interesting to see what “reason” is given for the drop.

  8. blackjak100 says:

    New ATH with NYAD negative so far….still 2.5 hrs to go.

  9. H D says:

    10 point hit from yesterday high to 2321 pivot, buyers show and we have new ATH’s. aka Turn around Tuesday. I think the -D at 2336 pivot is more substantial and the distance to the MA’s is significant. Expecting some OPEX hit this week. 2300 is HWB

  10. Peter Sliney says:

    I know this may be a bit early but 100,000 Dow? Just might be the dark energy.

    • Dex T says:

      A bit?? – Maybe in a century. Look how many years it took to get this high.

      If technology continues to evolve at it’s current rate maybe 60-70 % of the companies will be extinct by that time.

  11. pooch77 says:

    Buying pressure back on +65 dow close

  12. vivelaamo says:

    New highs again and this is the Bull taking a breather.

  13. learnedmylesson25 says:

    GdX dips below 10d sma (24.86)at 24.74.The last time being the exception,breaking the 10 d has lead to some decent selloffs.If it battles back and finishes above and moves up again–would be extremely bullish short term(as last time in late January).
    20d is at 24.10,a key level for me.23.75 is key for Avi Gilburt.See how the rest of the day goes.Good luck all.

  14. phil1247 says:


    out of all longs at 2323

    aggressive extension long has failed

  15. phil1247 says:


    raised stops on TBT
    BONDS coming into retest of broken support
    taking profits on half as soon as aggressive extension short fails

  16. scottycj1 says:

    Buy Pressure ends tomorrow on my Market Roadmap…..sometimes its a day early…….?

    feb forecast

  17. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  18. gary61b says:

    es below 2321 then 2316.

  19. fionamargaret says:

    Oil using UCO to 27…..5 upside

  20. pooch77 says:

    short rut via tza $17.90

  21. kjb0 says:

    Tony, I still think we put in a top for the year before the end of February. But just to be clear on your weekly sp count, this market is in wave 3 and should not come back to the wave1 high of 2134 for many years. Is that correct?

  22. phil1247 says:


    aggressive extension long supported overnite at .50 level
    but there is a short from highs at 2327 that must be taken out to reach
    the 2331 target

    2337 after that… around 2340 SPX

    • phil1247 says:

      note to overconfident bulls……..
      if the extensions fail
      support drops to /ES 2299
      with no guarantee that it will hold

  23. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Dollar takes a small dive on Flynn resignation.Not a good sign for confidence purposes,in a new administration,when one of your cabinet has to resign within a month.Vetting,judgement,integrity all has to be viewed as having taken a hit here.How long this story lasts or where it leads is the next question.

  24. Ajay Singhi says:

    Let the games begin!!

  25. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Interestingly on P&F charts,ABX and NEM were shown to have upside breakouts in the last week.These are two huge components of GDX.ABX at 19 has a PO of 30,while Newmont is similarly projected percentagewise from 36 to 50+.
    But GDX itself is still projected to 7.Can’t wait to see how THAT scenario contorts itself into happening. (It won’t).I added a little today.From 5% to 10%.Good luck all.

  26. blackjak100 says:

    maybe a top of some degree is closer than most think…

  27. stormchaser80 says:

    SPX made a new All Time High today, further strengthening negative divergences on its technical indicators (except actually breaking one on the ADX +DI). The hourly chart did put in a few negative divergences at today’s highs, so brief weakness can be expected. $VIX has no strong trend, failing to log positive divergences at Friday’s lows or negative divergences at today’s highs.

    McClellan and my proprietary Technicals Model were both positive. Due to my model, I suspect we are not yet done with stabs higher.

    My legacy LONG signal remains ‘YES’. I remain long in my 401k.

    More discussion and charts here:

    My site is 100% free. If you are visiting for the first time, be advised that I do ask new users register for a free login to see daily posts. This takes 15 seconds. This is to protect myself, ensuring that everyone agrees to my legal documents.

  28. EL MATADOR says:

    Thank’s Tony, I think I might have picked up a winning lotto ticket

    EL MATADOR says:
    December 7, 2016 at 1:45 pm
    2350-75 by Jan-Feb….that’s all folks

    itchy finger might get triggered in coming days

  29. lunker1 says:

    Candle Body Support
    4 hour 2322 (gap) and 2306
    Daily 2293

  30. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $ES at

  31. phil1247 says:


    next target is at 2331

    then 2337 …. which is around SPX 2340

    bullish above 2307
    but i will be gone if 2322 is violated

    • Bud Fox says:

      FYI my art work, is calling this a 5th wave high at 2328…
      Or….W3. if this is a W3 top. Then, a short term trade short
      via SDS would work, for a trader. I plan to wait for the 5th wave
      top to form, yet ahead….end

  32. A teacher I had at Auburn University pointed this out on a quiz where the top grade was 87 or so. He went question by question saying anyone who knows the answer just shout it out. Every shouted answer was correct because we all had learned something but none of us earned 100% of the grade.

  33. 123 abc says:

    Appears the Primary-b count will be officially abandoned this week, and Primary-iii will assert itself.

    Q: Tony, the SPX and DOW counts are in Intermediate-iii wave, but the various NASDAQ counts are in a subdivided and longest Intermediate-v wave. Do you expect to align the NASDAQ indices with the SPX and DOW counts?

  34. vivelaamo says:

    Sorry Tony, Could you delete my messages on todays update. They got all messed up.

  35. llerias7 says:

    Consensus point to a minor pb to 2295…let us see. Either way no doubt will press higher till April…spx 2400´s…

Comments are closed.